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Mugabe loyalists impede Zimbabwe unity talks
Sarah Childress and Farai Mutsaka, Wall Street Journal
September 03, 2008

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122038322189091839.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

As South African mediators scramble to salvage talks over a power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe, a small but influential group of loyalists of President Robert Mugabe has emerged as the biggest roadblock to a deal.

In more than six weeks of negotiations following contested presidential elections, Mr. Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai have deadlocked over plans to form a unity government. They appeared close to a deal early last month. But last week, Mr. Mugabe threatened to name his cabinet, which the opposition said would scuttle any further talks.

Behind the president's apparent reversal is new resistance by a group of longtime loyalists and ruling-party insiders toward ceding executive power to the opposition, according to people familiar with the group's thinking.

Mr. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change won the most seats in parliament in elections in the spring. Mr. Tsvangirai also beat Mr. Mugabe in the presidential poll, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. The opposition abandoned the second round in June amid violence against its supporters. The opposition and human-rights groups blamed Mr. Mugabe's supporters for the violence, but the government blamed the opposition.

The group of Mugabe loyalists -- which includes Emmerson Mnangagwa, a potential successor to Mr. Mugabe and an alleged architect of the country's post-election violence -- initially urged the president to negotiate with opposition leaders, according to several military and ruling-party members.

A close ruling-party associate of Mr. Mnangagwa said that the group never intended to cede any "real or meaningful power." It hoped instead to bring Mr. Tsvangirai into the government as a junior or ceremonial partner, this person said.

The move would preserve Mr. Mugabe's legitimacy in the eyes of regional powers. Western powers might also be willing to ease economic sanctions. But Mr. Tsvangirai has insisted on some form of executive power, according to opposition members who are not authorized to speak publicly about the talks.

In response, Mr. Mnangagwa and others pushed for Mr. Mugabe to announce last week that he would soon form his cabinet, effectively shutting out the opposition from any prominent posts, while publicly remaining committed to the talks, according to ruling party members who are close to Mr. Mugabe's inner circle. In the state media, the government has recently suggested that Mr. Tsvangirai is responsible for the deadlock.

Meanwhile, another pillar of Mr. Mugabe's hard-line support has publicly said it won't go along with any deal either. Isaiah Muzenda, a representative of the so-called war veterans, a band of young men who often enforce Mr. Mugabe's rule, told a local newspaper that the group wrote to the president warning him not to agree to such a deal.

Economic pressures are weighing heavily on Mr. Mugabe. Ordinary Zimbabweans have long suffered from out-of-control inflation. Amid tightening sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, even the president is struggling to maintain his traditional web of patronage, in particular the soldiers who have helped enforce his rule, says John Robertson, a Zimbabwean economist in Harare.

That could be boosting the leverage of his hard-line backers, whose own grip on power could be threatened by a deal with Mr. Tsvangirai.

"Ceding executive power to Tsvangirai would be bad for business," said a senior military officer familiar with the internal debate. "Mugabe uses an extensive patronage system that ties a lot of military and [ruling party] leaders to him," this person said. "For Mugabe, patronage is a form of insurance."

Government spokesman Bright Matonga said he wasn't authorized to speak about Mr. Mugabe's goals in the talks. "In these negotiations we've been very genuine and open and honest, and [Mugabe] wants that process to succeed," he said.

Attempts to reach Mr. Mnangagwa were unsuccessful. Movement for Democratic Change spokesman Nelson Chamisa said that the talks were stalling because Mr. Mugabe is no longer in charge.

"He is circled by vultures," Mr. Chamisa said. "The military and greedy cronies of his are dictating the pace and direction of the talks from behind the scenes. The tragedy is that they want to continue with a free reign of looting and plundering the country's resources, and this can only be ensured if Mugabe remains in charge."

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