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Tsvangirai losing momentum?
NewZimbabwe.com)
May 10, 2008

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/electoral261.18175.html

A week after being declared the winner in the first round of Zimbabwe's election, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is fast losing momentum with a series of blunders ahead of a run-off, say analysts.

Tsvangirai's victory over the incumbent Robert Mugabe in the first round, falling short of an overall majority by barely two percentage points, was announced last Friday only days after his party won control of parliament.

But while the twin defeats should have left Mugabe on the ropes, Tsvangirai appears to have been left equally stunned and his judgement impaired by an outcome that few would have predicted before polling day.

With his party still to decide whether Tsvangirai will actually contest the run-off and the man himself dithering over a return to Zimbabwe, analysts say the Movement for Democratic Change leader is in danger of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

Eldred Masungure, a political lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, said Tsvangirai's decision to stay away at such a crucial time was ill-advised.

"Whatever motivated him, be it security or anything it was an unwise decision," Masunugure said.

"We are now having a shepherd who has abandoned his flock. He is leaving his sheep to the predators. He has eloped to safety and left his supporters under all sorts of risk."

Tsvangirai left Zimbabwe a week after the elections and has since been busy trying to drum up diplomatic pressure to persuade Mugabe to stand down gracefully after a 28-year rule.

However he has managed in the process to alienate South African President Thabo Mbeki, the region's chief pointman on the crisis in Zimbabwe, by calling for him to be stripped of his role as mediator.

He has also failed to persuade any African leader to back up his assertion that he won an overall majority in the first round.

Neo Simutanyi, a Zambia-based political commentator, said indications were that the MDC would take part in the presidential run-off "under protest" but questioned the wisdom of delaying the announcement.

"MDC members are anxious to know the decision so that they can begin campaigning. The more they delay in making the decision, the more Mugabe gains momentum on the ground," he said.

"Leaving everyone guessing is lack of political strategy on the part of MDC," added Simutanyi, a lecturer at University of Zambia.

In a hard-hitting editorial entitled "Morgan, Come Home" the privately-owned Zimbabwe Independent said Tsvangirai should be more visible locally.

"The MDC arguably won the March election but it behaves as if it lost," the weekly said.

"Tsvangirai needs to return home. He is needed here. His supporters are taking a beating from the thugs who have been unleashed across the country.

"It is time for him to identify with their suffering and give a lead to his followers."

According to the MDC, at least 30 of its members have been killed and thousands of its supporters displaced in the aftermath of the March 29 polls.

Bill Saidi, deputy editor of the privately owned Standard weekly, said Tsvangirai's absence raises questions about his ability to lead.

"His continued absence raises very, very difficult questions about his leadership qualities," Saidi said.

"He owes it to supporters to be present. This is a crucial time to galvanize his supporters, their morale might be lifted."

Although he has been accused of treason by one of Mugabe's senior lieutenants, Tsvangirai insists that he is not in exile and recently told reporters he would return home "when appropriate".

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