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Inside Mugabe's divided ranks
Stephanie Nolen, Globe and Mail (Canada)
April 04, 2008

View this story on the Globe and Mail website

Two factions of Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF party are battling over whether President Robert Mugabe should step down or instead participate in a runoff election after he failed to win an outright majority in last Saturday's poll, according to senior ruling party sources.

Hard-liners in his inner circle are pushing Mr. Mugabe to use "presidential powers" to postpone the second poll for 90 days, in order to buy time to regain the control they have lost on the country that ZANU-PF has run since independence 28 years ago. The other faction is encouraging the President to compromise with the opposition.

The power struggle between the camps has the rest of the country in a state of suspended animation, and makes clear that the fate of Zimbabwe rests, now, on the fear, false confidence and desire for retribution driving Mr. Mugabe and those around him.

The 49 members of the ZANU-PF politburo will hold an emergency meeting Friday morning to try to resolve the standoff. Six days after the election, the regime has yet to release its tally of the presidential vote, which by law must be made public Friday.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change says its collation of posted election results shows that its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, won the vote, but the party has nevertheless agreed to a runoff, a sign its leaders suspect he did not capture 51 per cent either. Independent election observers gave him 49.4 per cent with a 2-per-cent margin of error.

Hawks in ZANU-PF are insisting that Mr. Mugabe can win the runoff. Their position is stiffened by a determination to hold on to the vast personal wealth they have acquired as members of the governing elite presiding over Zimbabwe's implosion in the past eight years.

A few, including two of the security chiefs, the enforcer "youth league" and former intelligence minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, believe that ZANU-PF, having captured the majority of the popular vote in parliamentary elections, can win another contest outright, particularly if it makes use of rigging tactics, such as "ghost voters" and unannounced polling stations, which helped it win the last four elections here, according to international electoral observers.

"This time it will be a resounding victory for the President," former deputy information minister Bright Matonga said Thursday. He said the party "let the President down" in the first round and would redouble its efforts in the runoff.

Others are less confident: A source with excellent knowledge of the country's finances said the government exhausted every dollar of precious foreign currency on last week's vote and has absolutely nothing left to put into a new campaign.

This faction is pushing the President to use presidential powers to postpone the second run for 90 days, effectively imposing a state of emergency. Under Zimbabwean law, the runoff must be held on April 19, three weeks from the first election. If the runoff is postponed, ZANU-PF would use that time to harden its control over a country where its structures govern everything from the price of bread to which village gets a bus or drugs for its clinic.

At the same time, members of Mr. Mugabe's family and many of his oldest friends are advising him not to stand again. They are urging that he cut a deal with the MDC that provides him a graceful way out and immunity from prosecution for human-rights abuses.

Senior ZANU-PF members confirmed that an emissary for Mr. Mugabe, his former national intelligence minister and long-time friend Nicholas Goche, is talking to senior figures in the MDC about a possible government of national unity, in which ZANU-PF and the MDC would govern together for six months until Mr. Mugabe, 84, steps down with what would be considered dignity intact.

All of Mr. Mugabe's negotiations in recent years have been handled by former justice minister Patrick Chinamasa, but the ex-minister is in a rage over having lost his seat and his aides said yesterday that he is refusing to represent Mr. Mugabe in these talks.

"The vast majority in ZANU-PF, even at the top levels, accept that they were defeated by a better party," said Eldred Masunungure, a political analyst at the University of Zimbabwe.

In the parliamentary election, the combined opposition took 110 seats, while ZANU-PF took 97, according to official results confirmed Wednesday. It marked the first-ever defeat for ZANU-PF since the country's independence.

There are initial signs that the hawks around Mr. Mugabe may have the balance of power. Thursday night police raided MDC offices in a large Harare hotel. And 30 police officers in riot gear raided a small Harare hotel, detaining two foreign journalists, including New York Times correspondent Barry Bearak, and two consultants with pro-democracy organizations.

The government began slowly to release results for the largely toothless Senate Thursday.

The active involvement of continental heavyweight South Africa was confirmed Thursday when South African President Thabo Mbeki said he had spoken with Mr. Tsvangirai. Mr. Mbeki has long had a policy of "quiet diplomacy," attempting to mediate a solution to the Zimbabwe crisis, while hampered by both Mr. Mugabe's intransigence and the considerable loyalty the President still commands as the leader of Zimbabwe's liberation struggle.

"If indeed Tsvangirai has been elected, that's fine, and if there is a runoff, that's fine. That is a matter we must await," Mr. Mbeki told journalists in Pretoria.

Kingsley Mamabolo, South Africa's former ambassador in Harare, is shuttling between Mr. Mugabe and Mr. Tsvangirai, according to senior ZANU-PF members.

With a report from Shakeman Mugari

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