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A serious rival, at last?
The Economist
January 17, 2008

http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10534731

Robert Mugabe may be facing his most dangerous opponent yet.

The new year has brought little joy to most Zimbabweans, as they struggle to survive worsening food shortages, hyperinflation and joblessness. But at least there is a flicker of movement on the political front. The ruling ZANU-PF is said to be on the brink of splitting, ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections due in March. Simba Makoni, a former finance minister, has been named as a prospective splinter's possible leader. Could he pose a serious challenge to President Robert Mugabe's hitherto firm grip on power?

Mr Makoni, who has been in and out of cabinet since 1980, is still part of the ruling party's top leadership. Widely respected as a technocrat and one of ZANU-PF's few stalwarts untainted by corruption, he is a danger to Mr Mugabe because he could appeal both to disgruntled people in the ruling party as well as to the opposition. He does not have much grassroots support, but, in the words of Sydney Masamvu of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based lobby, he heads "a coalition of the wounded, the marginalised and the bitter" within ZANU-PF. Some within this coalition have links to Solomon Mujuru, a powerful party figure and former army chief whose wife is a vice-president. But it is unclear whether Mr Mujuru, who has hedged his bets in the past, is directly involved in Mr Makoni's brave-or rash-bid.

Mr Mugabe would struggle to see off a big revolt within his ZANU-PF, especially if it were in cahoots with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). But such an alliance would be hard to forge. Mr Mugabe has destroyed or co-opted his rivals for decades. The success of this latest rebellion would depend on whether the economic catastrophe and Mr Mugabe's excesses make enough ZANU-PF people stand up to the president and then stick together. If so, it may convince the MDC, which is itself split into two factions and is weak on its own, to close ranks and jump on a bandwagon led by Mr Makoni.

In the meantime, talks between ZANU-PF and the two-headed MDC resumed this week. Following the beating-up of MDC leaders last March, South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, has been trying to mediate between the two sides. As a goodwill gesture, the MDC agreed to a constitutional amendment proposed by the ruling party that upped the number of seats in parliament, though the new constituencies are likely to favour ZANU-PF, which keeps a firm grip on rural areas. In December, repressive security and media laws were eased a bit. In a breakthrough, both sides agreed in principle to a new constitution.

But the talks have not improved things on the ground. Amnesty International, a human-rights group, says the government still beats and tortures its opponents. Local watchdogs have decried irregularities in voter registration ahead of the election and in demarking constituencies.

The MDC also wants the new constitution, which includes a requirement for an independent electoral commission, enacted before the election. This would mean preparing for it all over again, which Mr Mugabe unsurprisingly refuses to do. So the opposition wants the election postponed, and Morgan Tsvangirai, one of the MDC's rival leaders, has threatened to boycott it if these conditions are not met.

Mr Mugabe, in power since 1980, is bent on winning another term. The South Africans hope that, fairly soon after that, he will step down and hand over to an anointed successor from within ZANU-PF, perhaps Emerson Mnangagwa, a former security chief who has been the Mujurus' rival in the ruling party. The new ruler might-so the plan goes-reach out to one faction of the MDC and form a national unity government. The West might then pile in with cash and advice to give Zimbabwe a fresh start.

But Mr Makoni's bid, if he makes it, would turn all such calculations upside down. It is unclear how Mr Mugabe would handle or squash him-or whether Mr Makoni would take a big chunk of ZANU-PF with him or form a wider coalition from outside the ruling party. The MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara is said to be keen to join up with him.

Mr Mugabe, for his part, is said to be terrified that a new regime would send him to face charges of crimes against humanity at the international court in The Hague. In any event, Mr Makoni has given Zimbabweans at least a fleeting moment of hope that real change is in the offing at last.

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