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Zimbabwe's bickering MDC could prove biggest obstacle to change
Justin Muponda, ZimOnline
June 11, 2007

http://www.zimonline.co.za/Article.aspx?ArticleId=1504

The failure by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to close ranks ahead of national elections in 2008 could prove to be the biggest obstacle to a democratic dispensation as President Robert Mugabe consolidates power unhindered and looks set to defeat the fractured opposition at the polls, analysts said.

Once a formidable party that came close to ousting Mugabe's ZANU-PF party in the 2000 parliamentary elections, the MDC is now a shadow of itself when it was formed in 1999, largely due to internal squabbles on tactics to confront the ruling party and a government crackdown on its structures.

Political analysts said the MDC had worsened its predicament by failing to patch up differences following its split in 2005 mainly over positions in a reunified party.

"The problem is that the MDC is behaving like a party in government especially when you look at demands by the two factions on who should get what post," leading political commentator Eldred Masunungure told ZimOnline.

"This is compounding the MDC's problems as it were and in the process they are missing the bigger picture, which is confronting ZANU-PF. That is the main reason why they are in opposition, to fight the government of the day, not among themselves," he added.

The analysts said most Zimbabweans, while angry with Mugabe's policies that are blamed for plunging the country into a deep recession, felt more betrayed by the MDC's failure to present a united front to challenge ZANU-PF.

Zimbabwe, which was once a model economy for other African states, is grappling with a serious economic crisis that has seen real domestic gross product contracting by nearly 40 percent since 1999 while inflation has zoomed past 3,700 percent is seen rising further, leaving more people in poverty.

John Makumbe, a University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer said the opposition was making a strategic mistake by concentrating on its internal squabbles while a rejuvenated ZANU-PF continued to galvanise its supporters for the presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections next year.

"I think they are making a huge strategic mistake and the sad thing is that ZANU-PF is becoming more vicious in order to destroy the MDC," Makumbe, a frequent Mugabe critic said.

"At the rate at which they are going, the MDC is likely to enter next year's elections more divided than before. They are wasting energy on differences that they can easily resolve, it is an issue of egos," he added.

The smaller faction of the MDC led by Arthur Mutambara is reportedly pressing with a lawsuit against main MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai over remarks the former trade unionist allegedly made against his former colleagues.

The two factions are reportedly imposing conditions for unity, such as who will get which post after the reunification process.

Political analysts said in its fractured state, the MDC would lose an election which the international community could deem relatively free and fair and therefore restore limited or full relations with a re-elected ZANU PF government, especially if Mugabe shows preparedness to install a reformist successor after the polls.

The analysts noted that ZANU PF was itself divided over the still unresolved question of Mugabe's succession but said the ruling party was still better organised than the opposition and many times more vicious in its push to retain power.

The ruling party has already started campaigning for the 2008 elections and is already closing out the MDC from its traditional rural strongholds where it has continued to command mass support and score big victories against the opposition.

"It is not wrong to assume that ZANU-PF under the current circumstances will win an election which the international community could deem somewhat free and fair. ZANU-PF is much better prepared and organised and still has a large support base in the country," Masunungure said.

Mugabe's government has intensified repression against the opposition and civil society and the veteran leader said early this month security forces were maintaining a high level of vigilance to quell planned opposition and labour unions' protests he says are meant to remove him from power.

Analysts say the 83-year-old leader -- who has been in power since independence in 1980 -- has used tough policing, including the arrest of activists on trumped-up charges and the use of heavily armed police and army to intimidate and quell protests.

Mugabe rejects allegations of running down the economy and points to a Western conspiracy led by Britain to sabotage the economy as punishment for his government's seizure of white-owned commercial farms for blacks. -- ZimOnline

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