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Opposition rift aids Mugabe
Alec Russel, Financial Times (UK)
May 22, 2007

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d0c06e00-0888-11dc-b11e-000b5df10621.html

As he emerged one chill evening recently from a meeting in Bulawayo, David Coltard, one of Zimbabwe's most respected opposition leaders, saw a tall man coming out of the shadows. He checked for a moment, they had a stilted conversation and then they went their separate ways.

A casual observer might have assumed that Mr Coltard, a human-rights lawyer, had encountered one of the agents from President Robert Mugabe's feared Central Intelligence Organisation, who regularly tail the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

But the awkward encounter testified to a far more poignant difficulty facing Zimbabwe's opposition. The two men are actually old friends and fellow MDC luminaries, but they are now on opposing sides of a bitter rift that could destroy their chances of unseating Mr Mugabe in elections next year.

"It's such a tragedy," said a mutual friend who did not want to be identified. "They both care so much about getting rid of Mugabe, but it's almost too painful now for them to talk."

As South Africa prepares to host talks next month between the MDC and Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF, the former party's two wings have papered over their divisions and agreed a common position on pre-conditions for their taking part in parliamentary and presidential elections due next March.

But hopes that a meeting between the factions this week could lead to a rapprochement came to nothing. "The idea of a coalition is not officially a dead letter, but it's not going to happen," said a senior supporter of the larger wing, which is led by the MDC's founding leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, a burly former union leader.

"The two groups will fight the election independently." A senior figure in the other wing, led by the more bookish Arthur Mutambara, was fractionally less gloomy. "It's not the end of the road, but we had hoped to reach an agreement on a coalition but didn't," he said.

The two sides have agreed that Mr Tsvangirai should be the party's sole presidential candidate. But they are split over how many parliamentary races should be allocated to each faction.

The dispute has reopened old wounds. The formal reason for the rupture in late 2005 was tactical: the party was divided over whether to contest senate elections. But that was just the spark in a long-brewing feud between senior figures over ideology, policy and Mr Tsvangirai's leadership style.

For 83-year-old Mr Mugabe - seeking to extend his 27 years in power with a fresh term - the MDC's disharmony is great news. His own party is also split, with senior members questioning the wisdom and legitimacy of his nomination this year as presidential candidate.

But in the countdown to the election, Zanu-PF can be expected to exploit the opposition's rifts to the full.

A recent clampdown on MDC activists seems to have concentrated on Mr Tsvangirai's wing. If this was deliberate, it would not be the first time that Zanu-PF - and other influential forces in the region - appear to have played one MDC wing off against the other.

Over the past 18 months, Mr Tsvangirai's aides have accused South Africa of favouring Mr Mutambara's wing. But since regional leaders mandated South Africa to mediate in the crisis in March, Pretoria has been scrupulous in speaking to both factions.

However, sources close to the mediation team suggest that the South African government thinks the best bet for a stable Zimbabwe is a post-Mugabe government of reformist Zanu-PF members.

Mr Mugabe inadvertently gave the opposition a new lease of life on March 11 when his riot police brutally beat dozens of MDC leaders and supporters.

Images of Mr Tsvangirai's bruised features led to his elevation worldwide as the face of freedom in Zimbabwe.

Frustratingly for MDC politicians, however, they are still deemed to have much to prove and desperately need to reunite. "They are fully conscious that if they don't hang together they'll hang separately," said one diplomat. "Unfortunately, personality differences still exist at the very top."

This article is the second in a series on political and business life in Zimbabwe.

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