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Zimbabwe's Elections 2013 - Index of Articles
dollar return too ghastly to contemplate
December 05, 2013
There are rumours
abound of the imminent return of the Zimbabwe dollar.
As far as I
am concerned, that will surely sound the death knell for the Zimbabwean
economy as we know it.
But, as I always
say, never say never, especially when you have a desperate government
that does not have wide choices.
I want to look
at three scenarios: The political solution scenario, the Chinese
scenario and the Zim dollar scenario.
It is clear
that Zanu-PF has not earned politically legitimacy from the West
and the only way that this can be earned is through a political
solution that acknowledges that the
July 31 elections were not free and fair and did not reflect
the will of the majority of Zimbabweans.
This would mean
that all the reforms as stipulated in the Global
Political Agreement must be implemented and fresh elections
held as soon as possible.
Now that is
as good as asking Zanu-PF to admit that indeed they rigged the elections
and we all know that is not about to happen.
this is the only way the Zimbabwe can earn legitimacy and this would
lead to normalisation of international relationships leading to
economic recovery in the medium term. This is the hardest but the
best solution for Zimbabwe.
We then have
the Chinese scenario.
mortgages its resources to the Chinese and receives cash from China.
here is that, firstly, that nullifies indigenisation, but, more
important, it will result in us selling our national resources for
We must remember
that Zimbabwe does not even know the value of the mineral resources
it has and in desperation, we are most likely to undervalue what
would, of course, take full advantage of this situation, pay us
as little as possible and effectively colonise Zimbabwe in the process.
of funds that can be raised through this solution is very minimal
and cannot sustain our needs in the medium term.
The Zim dollar
scenario would sees us introducing the Zim dollar.
with this is obvious: There is no confidence that this government
can manage its own currency as was the case up to 2008.
Added to this
is the emotional baggage that comes with it due to the traumatic
experience of Zimbabweans in 2008.
of the Zimbabwe dollar would wipe out imports, especially food from
the shops, as we are importing an estimated 70% of our needs.
There is also
no guarantee that it would keep its value and we would be effectively
bringing back hyperinflation and would, therefore, wipe out any
wealth accumulated since 2009.
It will not
revive industry or create new jobs.
will reverse any gains that we might have made as a country since
2009 and will actually accelerate poverty.
This Zim dollar
option is just too ghastly to contemplate and if any of our politicians
are even considering it, they should be arrested.
We are in a
good space I think, we all know that the only sustainable solution
is a political one. Everything else will be short term and expedient.
The only question
is: How long it will take for Zanu-PF to realise that without a
political solution, they are manufacturing their own demise?
not a bad thing either?
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