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Kenyatta dates ICC as Zimbabwe blunders on
March 18, 2013
for an International Criminal Court-bound man. Some ‘progressive’
Africans finger ICC for harbouring ‘sinister imperialist motives’.
In their repertoire of accusations: haul George Bush Jr. and Tony
Blair to The Hague for ‘killing thousands of Arabs’!
Others argue: if Charles Taylor, Omar al Bashir, Laurent Gbagbo,
Joseph Kony, Thomas Lubanga, Uhuru Kenyatta or known ZANU-PF operatives,
have inhumanity cases to answer, The Hague is ideal for clearing
their names. They insist AU is incapable of apprehending African
leaders who habitually flout humanity laws.
‘agreed’ to appear before The Hague. Question: why then
did Kenyans opt for his presidential candidature? Answer: ‘ethnic
democracy’! Kenyatta benefited from Democratic Tribal Elections
[D-TREL]. Lindsey Hilsum prophesised: “Kikuyus will largely
vote for the main Kikuyu candidate, Uhuru Kenyatta... Kalenjins
will also vote Jubilee...Luos and some other minority groups will
vote for Raila Odinga, a Luo....” Harvard Professor Calestous
Juma lends weight to D-TREL: “Political violence soon took
on an ethnic dimension after Kenya's disputed 2007 elections...”
electoral bloc’s strong affinity with Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel
arap Moi – elevated a Hague-bound candidate to presidential
status. Raila Odinga’s Luo-Luhyia-Kamba ethnic bloc was vanquished.
Professor Juma insists: “[African] Leaders often exploit tribal
loyalty to advance personal gain, parochial interests, patronage,
and cronyism” because “Tribal interests have played
a major role in armed conflict and civil unrest across the continent.”
Zimbabwe is no different.
Of the five
presidential candidates, Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirayi and Simba
Makoni are Shona ‘tribesmen’ allegedly tainted with
Zimbabwe’s deadly anti-Ndebele 1980s Gukurahundi genocide.
Mugabe was commander-in-chief while Tsvangirayi and Makoni never
‘opposed’ massacres. All three were members of ZANU-PF.
Their political moral worthiness could easily be subjected to ICC-like
public scrutiny. Moreover, the D-TREL phenomenon favours them.
will have to choose amongst Mugabe, Tsvangirayi, Makoni, Welshman
Ncube or Dumiso Dabengwa. Dabengwa and Ncube are both from the ‘minority’
Kalanga/Ndebele tribe – direct victims of Gukurahundi. It
requires major ethnic national transformation for either to win
2013 presidential elections, not least because they are incapable,
but that even disgruntled Mugabe, Tsvangirayi and Makoni supporters
would find it ‘painful’ to cross the electoral tribal
divide. Some Tsvangirayi supporters, under the cover of political
darkness, confess they can never vote for an Ndebele presidential
candidate. Thokozani Khupe and Lovemore Moyo – party vice
president and national chairman respectively - are ‘minority’
in the lineage of Tsvangirayi’s MDC-T ‘presidential
royalty’. Were Tsvangirayi to prevail, they both have to wait
till 2017 before their party congress slots them into the presidential
cockpit. However, Ms Khupe must first defeat secretary general Tendai
Biti in the courtyard of tribal populism. Mugabe, having spent most
of his time juggling with factional politics would also never have
‘allowed’, even in the so-called ‘united’
ZANU-PF/ZAPU, the late Joshua Nkomo or his late younger brother
John to ascend beyond vice-presidency.
For now, he
can sleep soundly. None of his disgruntled supporters can vote for
Professor Ncube. Even where Tsvangirayi prevails, it will take an
act of gigantic self-denial to recommend ‘fellow tribesmen’
Mugabe and Makoni, let alone himself, to The Hague. Given the South
African experience, I doubt whether truth and reconciliation ‘findings’
can result in convictions or ‘Kenyatta-like’ outcomes.
Says Basil Ibrahim: “Building modern political parties …
is, therefore, the most urgent way to counter tribal politics.”
Professor Juma concludes: “The way forward for African democracy
lies in concerted efforts to build … political parties founded
on development ideas and not tribal bonds.”
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