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Zimbabwe - 'Chinja' - but not much in MDC leadership
Southern Africa Report
April 27, 2011

With regional sentiment moving inexorably in its favour, Zimbabwe-s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) enters its third national congress to consolidate what it expects will be the final push for power.

Presidential, parliamentary and local council elections look set to be in March 2012, well ahead of the constitutional deadline of March 2013.Despite sporadic violence in the run-up to the congress, beginning on Thursday (28 April 2011), over representation from three of the 10 provincial delegations, the congress itself is unlikely to produce any fireworks. There is little reason for controversy: MDC has weathered the worst its political foes in President Robert Mugabe-s Zanu PF have thrown at them in the last 11 years, and come through. The leadership - all veterans of arrest, detention and assault, and of the loss of relatives and friends to political violence - is virtually unchanged since the party came within a whisker of securing a parliamentary majority in elections just nine months after its 1999 launch.

The leadership line-up is unlikely to change significantly in national executive committee elections at the weekend, although the party presidency, occupied since MDC-s launch by founder Morgan Tsvangirai, was the only uncontested position ahead of the congress.

MDC-s constitution limits party presidents and general secretaries to two terms, so Tsvangirai-s time should be up. But the party presidency is linked directly to the two-term provision for Zimbabwe-s presidency. MDC has already recognised that Tsvangirai-s part-sanctioned withdrawal from 2008 presidential run-off elections after he had won the first round necessitates some flexibility. Party sentiment is in favour of enforcing the two-term limit only once there have been free and fair national elections. If necessary, the congress will amend the constitution to achieve this.

Below Tsvangirai, the second key position is secretary-general, occupied by volatile lawyer Tendai Biti, 44, Tsvangirai-s closest rival. Biti and Tsvangirai have had a tempestuous relationship - Biti has in the past made bitter jokes about "that idiot", and told diplomats recently that, without their support, he would have been removed from the key finance portfolio last year when Tsvangirai reshuffled MDC Cabinet ministers serving in the "inclusive government" with Zanu PF. But the pair have recently reconciled.Biti is unlikely to face serious challenge for his party position. Even MDC loyalists recognise that, while great courage is common among the upper ranks, they are not overflowing with talent. Biti stands out as probably MDC-s most engaging and competent executive.

Tsvangirai inexplicably appointed both Biti and the deputy secretary-general Tapiwa Mashakada as MDC ministers in the "inclusive government", leaving no one in the party-s headquarters with authority to run the party day to day. Most of the present 12-person standing committee also have key government or cabinet positions.

If Biti is a virtual certainty, two of his most bitter foes in the party, husband-and-wife team Ian and Theresa Makone, may battle to retain their positions. Theresa is MDC national women-s chairperson and co-minister for home affairs. Ian is a member of the NEC and head of Tsvangirai-s prime minister-s office. He served as MDC director of elections in the 2008 elections, which MDC won. Theresa has struggled in her cabinet post.

The couple are, however, close to Tsvangirai and an intricate part of his support mechanisms since his wife was killed in a car accident in 2009. He may intervene to save their party positions - and their government posts.

MDC treasurer Roy Bennett, in exile in London, looks set to voluntarily withdraw from the post. He will not return to Zimbabwe until Zanu PF has lost the power to act on its determination to return him to prison. Bennett, an adept fundraiser, is arguably the most persecuted of all MDC executives and is widely admired in much of Zimbabwe.

Bennett-s deputy, Elton Mangoma, a chartered accountant and on the right of the party, is his most likely successor. Mangoma is Energy Minister and has been deeply offended by his arrests in March and prosecution for allegedly improperly avoiding tender procedures. His arrests triggered the most serious wobble in the "inclusive government" since its formation, under SADC pressure, in 2009. There is some question over whether he will be prepared to accept further party responsibility. The treasurer-s post is a major challenge: the MDC is chronically short of cash because legislation prohibits acceptance of foreign funds for political parties, and the domestic economy - its industrial base halved in the last 10 years - can offer only sluggish support.

Despite widespread criticism of her performance in the party and in Cabinet, MDC deputy president Thokozani Khupe is not expected to face a serious challenge. She originally got the job for two reasons: she is a woman and she is Ndebele from Bulawayo. She beat founding MDC secretary-general Welshman Ncube in the 2008 parliamentary elections after Ncube had split with MDC to form the breakaway MDC-N. Ncube is a particular hate figure in MDC (colloquially referred to as MDC-T, for Tsvangirai, to distinguish it from the breakaway).

Khupe is also deputy prime minister. She has the worst attendance record of any Cabinet member, MDC or Zanu PF, and spends more on travel than any other Minister.

Chairperson Lovemore Moyo, riding high after winning re-election as speaker of parliament three weeks ago, will retain his position. He has little power and apparently even less energy within the MDC or in the tough Zimbabwean political playing field. He has offended many in his Bulawayo home-base by sometimes abusing privileges of public office. Like Khupe, he-s Ndebele, reinforcing the party-s national character, and has useful contacts with Zanu PF.The enfant terrible of the MDC, Nelson Chamisa, 33, information and publicity secretary for the last five years, may be moved to organising secretary to replace Elias Mudzuri, sacked as energy minister last year and out of favour in the party. Chamisa is seldom short of a usable quote, and benefitted from intense US training over the years. He is perceived - at least by Zanu PF - as a future MDC president and formidable enemy, which is probably why a group of plain clothed military men smashed his skull open in broad daylight outside Harare International Airport in 2007.

MP Tongai Matutu, who made his party reputation by winning the MDC-s first parliamentary seat in the contested Masvingo province, is tipped to replace Chamisa. He is a lawyer and recently convicted of attacking a traditional leader.The congress does not herald major policy or strategy shifts. The party had evolved substantially in the past 11 years and is increasingly comfortable and confident with its current persona.

Its central slogan, "Chinja" (change - pronounced almost like ginger), is more about the country than the party at its third congress.

The party-s early dependence on white farmers - vital in its 2000 parliamentary campaign - has eased considerably. The relationship was never, in any event, a front for a geriatric Rhodesian resurgence, but an alliance of convenience. Tsvangirai was never a white farmer favourite - as secretary general of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions he gained some notoriety for organising their workers.

The party has also weaned itself off its early and naïve willingness to embrace the first-world activism of solidarity and white Rhodesian support, often with embarrassing consequences. This saw vast sums being spent on political grandstanding, lavish spectacles discordant in a country with empty supermarket shelves. Tsvangirai has begun to gain acceptance among his African peers as a legitimate leader. Particularly since his 2008 presidential election victory over Mugabe, he has disentangled himself from his dependence on Western endorsement. This is most graphically demonstrated by his decision in December to decline an invitation for an official meeting with new British Prime Minister David Cameron, preferring to attend his daughter-s graduation in Australia.

For their part, Washington and London have responded by dampening their earlier enthusiasm for Tsvangirai as Zimbabwe-s messiah, able to take power and re-craft Zimbabwe as an acceptable, Western-leaning client. Domestically the MDC lost opportunities to defeat Zanu PF by travelling the election road alone, failing to embrace anti-Zanu PF allies - a lesson the party may not yet have learned.

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