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Will
Zimbabwe be toasting to 31yrs of self-rule or moral decline?
Clifford Chitupa
Mashiri
April 18, 2011
As Zimbabwe celebrates
31years of independence on 18th April, succession concerns have
re-surfaced amidst reports of deep divisions while the biological
clock ticks loudly for the Supreme leader and those in his inner
circle. A Mugabe ally Jonathan Moyo once declared ' Zanu-PF
does not have any 'rule-bound, transparent and democratic
succession plan-.
Volatile
and unpredictable
Media reports
suggest that 'the situation around Mugabe is getting very
volatile and unpredictable largely due to what is happening in the
Middle East and North and West Africa-, (Timeslive 'Knives
out for Mugabe-,17/04/11). While this may be seen by the naïve
as purely a Zanu-PF problem, it is actually a Zimbabwean problem
because without a smooth transition from the ageing leader, there
can be no guarantees of political stability in a post-Mugabe era.
What is more
curious about the power-games behind the scenes is the current position
of Mugabe-s propagandist Jonathan Moyo who once observed when
he was his critic that it was 'the God-given truth that their
boss is made of weak human flesh and has a temporary spirit just
like the rest of us and is therefore not immortal. In view of Mugabe-s
clear old age, he can succumb to the inevitable-, (Time running
out for Mugabe to step aside, prof-jonathan-moyo.com).
Dishing
out patronage
Jonathan Moyo
accused Mugabe of creating a crisis by 'dishing out patronage
which he confuses with patriotism .. and breeding cronysim and instilling
fear all over the place-. In a rare statement of courage,
Moyo claimed that no-one 'wants- to build bridges with
Mugabe to help him escape consequences of his misrule.
'As things
stand-, he wrote, 'all hell would break loose and there
would be blood on the floor should Mugabe not wake up tomorrow precipitating
a presidential election within 90 days. Zimbabwe would be on fire
under these explosive conditions.-
Moyo argued
that when made aware that Zimbabwe could slip into anarchy and chaos
within 90 days of Mugabe meeting his God, his propagandists and
securocrats take the delusional view that the country-s security
forces have an unparalleled capacity to maintain law and order by
nipping any trouble in the bud as they did during the dreadful Operation
Murambatsvina.
Delusional
security men
He warned: 'What this means is that there are some delusional
security men in our midst who do not understand how, for example,
the Soviet Union, East Germany or apartheid South Africa collapsed
when their security agencies were among the world-s most feared
and most notorious in terms of their brutality.-
Contrary to
claims of success peddled by the regime-s propaganda in the
areas of indigenisation and land reform, factual revelations suggest
otherwise. For example, the exemption of Chinese firms from the
controversial indigenisation regulations means there is one law
for everyone else in Zimbabwe and another law for the Chinese. Furthermore,
on realising its errors, the Zimbabwe government has bowed to pressure
from timber producers and agreed to evict thousands of illegal settlers
from the country-s prime timber plantations in the eastern
districts (Fingaz, 15/04/11).
Prime
land
Critics argue
that Mugabe and his allies own 40 percent of prime land in Zimbabwe
and in particular him and his wife own 14 farms, worth at least
16 000 hectares in size (Zimonline, 30/11/10) and that by 2009 Mugabe
and his family had amassed a secret personal farming empire comprising
about 12 large commercial farms (Timeslive, 17/10/09). After the
collapse of the Zanu-PF leadership code the gap between the rich
and poor within the ruling party has widened. One striking example
is that of the poor living conditions at Geneva flats in Harare-s
surburb of Highfields where a correspondent of the Financial Gazette
said a family of four shared a room that is divided by pieces of
cloth or cardboard boxes since independence. On the other hand a
good source of assets owned by the inner circle appears to be court
records of their divorce cases.
Messy
divorce
For example,
in a messy divorce,
one of Mugabe-s Ministers, Ignatius Chombo was said to own
15 motor vehicles, 2 houses in Glen View, 2 flats in Queensdale,
a property in Katanga Township, a stand in Mount Pleasant heights,
4 Norton business stands, 3 Chinhoyi business stands, 4 Banket business
stands, 1 commercial stand in Epworth, 2 residential stands in Kariba,
1 stand in Ruwa, 1 stand in Chinhoyi, 2 stands in Mutare, 2 stands
in Binga, 4 stands in Victoria Falls, 1 stand in Zvimba Rural, two
residential and 2 commercial stands in Chitungwiza, 2 stands in
Beitbridge, 20 stands in Crow Hill, Borrowdale 10 stands in Glen
Lorne, 2 flats at Eastview Gardens, 1 flat at San Sebastian Flats
in the avenues and many more (Zimbabwemetro, 05/11/10).
Recently, one
of Mugabe-s ministers, Sylvester Nguni was reportedly fighting
tooth and nail to keep his ex-wife-s hands off his millions
which include eight houses, a South African flat, and a Norton plot,
one house in Borrowdale, two in Mandara, two in Alexandra Park,
one in Newlands, one in Norton and a flat at Northfields in the
avenues among other accumulations of wealth (The Zimbabwean, 08/04/11).
Sadly, as some
people celebrate, the tragic legacy of Mugabe-s land reform
programme is represented by the recent death of the 'White
African- Mike Campbell who led a historic legal battle against
Robert Mugabe in the regional human rights courts.
Food
shortages
Ironically,
Zimbabwe is facing food shortages and has reportedly stepped up
maize imports from Zambia (RadioVop, 02/03/11). Major sectors of
Zimbabwe-s economy have operated at 40% capacity since 2006,
starting with the freight industry which was operating at about
40 percent in October 2006 as a result of 'continued dislocation
of macro-economic fundamentals- (Zimbabwe Independent, 20/10/06).
As of September
2010, quoting the London-based researcher GFMS Ltd, the state owned
Herald newspaper reported that the gold sector was operating at
around 40 percent of installed capacity and that it required US$4
billion to 're-capitate its energy sector to boost output
of the precious mineral-.
Zimbabwe-s
trade deficit widened last year as imports outstripped exports by
US$2.4 billion according to Zimstats. Like a patient recovering
from a deep coma, the country is emerging from an economic slump
in which the economy contracted by more than 50 percent from 1996-1998
peak of US$ billion to about US$2.5 billion in 2008 (The Herald,
07/04/11).
Strong
earnings
While manufacturing
counters on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange reported strong earnings
during the year ending 31 December 2010, there was not much cause
of celebration as capacity utilisation was still below 50 percent
having increased from 10 percent in 2009 to 43 percent in August
2010 (Financial Gazette, 31/03/11). With unemployment at 70 percent,
erratic power supply and poor governance, the country will need
to heed the warnings by industry experts to shelve the indigenisation
campaign in order to improve the investment climate and tourism.
Political
Governance
Similarly there
is an urgent need for the country to improve political governance
and create an environment that is conducive for free and fair elections.
According to media reports hundreds of people were Thursday force-marched
to attend the burial of the late Central Intelligence Organisation
(CIO) deputy director-general, Menard Muzariri, at what the opposition
prefers to call 'the Zanu-PF cemetery in Harare. Contrary
to Muzariri-s hero status , political parties and civil society
groups in Matabeleland allege Muzariri was involved in the Gukurahundi
killings in which at least 20 000 civilians mainly Ndebeles who
supported PF-Zapu were killed by the Fifth Brigade (Timeslive, 17/04/11;
The Zimbabwe Mail, 17/03/11).
As some Zimbabwean
ambassadors and their guests would be lifting their glasses in a
toast to 31 years of independence shouting 'Bottoms-up-
many sober displaced nationals would be asking: "Will Zimbabwe
be toasting to 31 years of self rule or moral decline?
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