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Zanu-PF
MPs must defect to MDC-T to avert a Tunisia
Clifford Chitupa
Mashiri
March 31, 2011
Any hopes that
the Troika
would read the riot act to Robert Mugabe were dashed before the
meeting had even started when Zambian Foreign Minister indicated
that SADC was likely to stick to previous resolutions and urge the
two sides to find a solution. Only the fatally optimistic forget
that Jacob Zuma of South Africa went out of his way to 'sell
his soul for Mugabe- while in London last year prompting a
South African columnist to write:
For Zuma-s
information, there are no sanctions against Zimbabwe. There are
targeted sanctions against Mugabe and his closet ministers and
business inner circle. These are the people who have laundered
Mugabe-s wealth and maintain his foreign accounts. (Timeslive,
07/03/10).
Impeach
Robert Mugabe
With the Speaker
issue now resolved at least until Jonathan Moyo turns the tables
again, the MDC-T should now canvass support among Zanu-PF and MDC-Ncube/Mutambara
MPs to impeach Robert Mugabe through a vote of no confidence in
Parliament. It is possible and it is legal in terms of Zimbabwe-s
constitution. It is not treasonous either. This is the only way
of averting a Tunisia or Egypt style revolution in Zimbabwe. Zanu-PF
and MDC-N/M MPs hold the key to a peaceful end to the stalemate
in the GPA
if they switch sides because their votes will boost those of the
MDC-T to carry the day.
Despite the
regime-s attempts to deplete MDC-T-s parliamentary majority
through the selective incarceration of MPs with Mangoma appearing
in court cuffed and in leg irons for maximum humiliation and the
alleged attempts to bribe some MPs with $25 000, Lovemore Moyo of
MDC-T got 105 votes against 93 votes for Simon Khaya Moyo of Zanu-PF.
Therefore, the MDC-T should not lose the momentum.
However the
bereaved state propagandists could not conceal their pain of losing
the Speaker-s post with the State owned Herald, 29/03/11 moaning:
"The loss will come as a reminder to Zanu-PF of the kind of
disharmony that cost the party in the 2008 harmonised elections."
Norma Kriger,
author of Guerrilla Veterans in Post-war Zimbabwe: Symbolic and
Violent Politics, 1980-1987 (Cambridge, 2003) made a very pertinent
observation in 2008 when she said: "Some commentators predicted
that the MDC and the independents would win a large enough number
of seats in the parliamentary election to either impeach Mugabe,
or should he die in office, to elect his successor as provided for
in constitutional
amendment No.18".
While Kriger
described the impeachment scenario as "far-fetched"
then, there is now growing optimism that it is a possibility given
Zanu-PF-s on going 'silent rebellion- as well
as concerns that Mugabe-s health allegedly costs the Zimbabwe
government US$12m in 4 months (The Zimbabwean, 23/03/11). How such
a massive expenditure on an 87 year old dictator can be justified
when life expectancy is now 44 after to declining to 34 in 2006
thanks to HIV Aids defies logic.
Zimbabwe
mass grave
Furthermore,
apart from advancing age and poor health, Mugabe-s grip on
power has come under the spotlight in the face of growing intolerance
and political repression. There are fears of a big cover up of atrocities
and questions are being asked such as 'Who filled Zimbabwe
mass grave?- (Timeslive.co.za 31/03/11). As Zanu-PF has turned
to real skeletons for electioneering, it may have opened a can of
worms because pathologists are asking why some of the Chibondo remains
still have skin, hair and body fluids if they were killed over 30
years ago. There are no easy answers short of a full forensic audit.
More significantly,
Maryna Steyn, a forensic anthropologist at the University of Pretoria
in South Africa reportedly said human remains should not retain
a strong stench after 30 years (Timeslive, 31/03/11).
Zanu-PF MPs
and indeed the securocrats should be aware that there are prospects
of investigations by the International Criminal Court into massacres
such as Gukurahundi and the Chibondo mine shaft remains in view
of the bloody
election violence of 2008 and rights abuses during farm seizures.
Crossing the floor or an impeachment vote would be the only logical
thing to do now and help elect a transitional president pending
UN supervised elections after a referendum.
Better than a jasmine revolution
Because such
a vote will be secret, MDC-Ncube and Zanu-PF MPs would be assured
of confidentiality and that impeachment is better than a jasmine
revolution in Zimbabwe given the potential for a bloodbath. Furthermore,
by voting with the MDC-T for regime change, the MPs would be helping
solve the Zimbabwe crisis peacefully and much more quickly than
watch the country slide into chaos because of fixation with SADC.
The MDC-T should also seize the opportunity and make inroads into
Zanu-PF by trying to lure the regime-s MPs to defect on condition
they don-t get automatic posts and no foreign exile because
we need their impeachment votes in Parliament. Similarly, securocrats
should be encouraged to defect to the MDC-T in order to hasten the
departure of the dictatorship. Each case should be treated on its
merits without giving blanket amnesty for their rights abuses against
the people of Zimbabwe.
Zanu-PF MPs
should know that it is better to defect or cross the floor now than
to be expelled by Robert Mugabe as they may be regarded as 'suspect
packages- if they wait until it is too late. There is also
the possibility of a purge after the witch hunt of the dissidents.
People
don-t trust Zanu-PF
According to
a survey
of public opinion conducted by Freedom House and the Mass
Public Opinion Institute in 2010, 34% of the 1200 respondents
said they don-t trust Zanu-PF while only 9% said the same
about the MDC-T. Notably 32% said they support MDC-T 'a lot-
while 16% said the same about Zanu-PF.
How do you help
people defect? Well there are many ways. There is no 'one
size fits all- in diplomacy. Like all change management scenarios,
there will be resistance in a fear society like we have in Zimbabwe
and genuine concerns about coping mechanisms.
'Double
thinkers-
There are also
what Natan Sharansky described as 'double thinkers-:
"In
any place where dissent is banned, society fractures into three
groups. One group is composed of those who remain committed to
the prevailing order because they agree with it - the true
believers. Another group is made up of those who are willing to
defy the prevailing order despite the risk of punishment -
the dissidents. For members of these two groups, there will be
little or no gap between their private thoughts and public statements.
Unlike true believers and dissidents, members of the third group
do not say what they think. Thus group is composed of people who
no longer believe in the prevailing ideology, but who are afraid
to accept the risks associated with dissent. They are the 'double
thinkers-" (The Case for Democracy: The Power of Freedom
to overcome tyranny and terror, New York, 2004:43-44).
People need
to know why change is necessary and become part of it than choose
to be obstacles if not legitimate 'targets-.
The truth is
that there is discontent within Zanu-PF and there is a Shona saying
that 'Simbi inorohwa ichapisa - an iron rod is easier to beat
into shape when it-s still hot!-
*Clifford
Chitupa Mashiri, Political Analyst, London, zimanalysis2009@gmail.com
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