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'Mounting
fears in Zimbabwe' says survey
Andrew
Harding, BBC Blogs
March 04, 2011
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/andrewharding/2011/03/how_do_you_measure_fear.html
How do you measure
fear? A set of
new statistics from Zimbabwe attempts to do just that.
The figures,
compiled from a "nationally representative sample of 1,200
adult Zimbabweans" by an independent non-governmental organisation
called Freedom House, paint an alarming picture of a population,
which after more than a year of growing confidence following the
formation of a power-sharing government and the halting of the country's
economic collapse, is once again beginning to cower.
Here's one perspective
on the mood in Zimbabwe, then, as the prospect of elections draws
closer.
- 89% of respondents
did "not feel free to express political views"
- 74% believe
"that fear affects how people vote"
57% want elections this year, but almost the same number "stated
that fear of violence makes Zimbabweans abstain from voting"
- support
for the former opposition MDC-T has dropped sharply, from 55%
to 38%. At the same time 42% of respondents chose not to declare
their vote preference - an 11% rise from the previous year
- support for
Zanu-PF has grown from 12 to 17%
- 58% of respondents
had experienced "violence and intimidation in their communities
in the past two years."
These figures
were presented by Freedom House at a news conference in Johannesburg,
and then followed by panel discussions which focused on concerns
about a new wave of intimidation by President Mugabe's Zanu-PF.
Zimbabwean journalist
Faith Zaba told of being threatened with death for planning to write
about a senior general; she also said "there's a fear of Facebook,"
because "we know they [state security] are monitoring."
Women's activist
Grace Chirenje spoke of "fatigue and fear in civil society...
there are so many human rights violations right now, perpetrated
mainly by the police and army... and youth militias."
Human rights
lawyer Alec Muchadehama declared that the reconciliation process
"has simply not happened. Nothing has changed... People are
afraid. They are not prepared to sacrifice."
Polling expert
professor Eldred Masunungure told me the fall in support for the
MDC was "a big but bitter lesson" for the party. "Though
they've performed reasonably well in government, they've done very
badly in terms of... resuscitating the party and readying it for
the next electoral battle."
Despite the
generally gloomy tone of the survey's findings, it's worth pointing
out that on Monday, Harare will play host to a much more upbeat
gathering of foreign investors, lured for the most part by Zimbabwe's
vast mineral resources.
How to square
the gloom and the optimism? Zimbabwe's finance minister - also the
MDC's Secretary General - Tendai Biti can always be relied on for
a choice turn of phrase.
"We're
fighting the most sophisticated dictator on the African continent,"
he said, in reference to Mr Mugabe, and in answer to a series of
questions I put to him.
"We are
talking about two different messages. The past and the future."
He said most foreign investors were able to see beyond the "fiction
and rhetoric" of Zanu-PF's statements about seizing companies
by force.
"No major players have pulled out," he said.
As for the political
struggle between the two parties: "It's inevitable that there's
going to be a violent collision. But our vision is the future, and
the future will always win. A new society is being built,"
said Mr Biti.
"The only
challenge is whether this baby is going to be delivered by violent
caesarean section, or by normal delivery. But it will be delivered
anyway," he said.
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