Back to Index

Zimbabwe in 2011/2012: Political scenario mapping
John Makumbe, Idasa
February 10, 2011

Download this document
- Acrobat PDF version (75.7KB)
If you do not have the free Acrobat reader on your computer, download it from the Adobe website by clicking here

http://www.idasa.org/our_products/resources/output/imagine_this_sito_does_some/

The year 2010 ended on a rather sour note for most politicians in Zimbabwe. At the Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) annual consultative meeting in December, President Robert Mugabe called for harmonized elections to be held in 2011, arguing that the Government of National Unity (GNU) was not working well. He argued that the GNU, a temporary measure aimed at bringing about inclusivity and harmony, had not been an effective governance mechanism. In Zimbabwe, the call for elections always conjures up scenes of political violence, polarisation and the possibility of incumbent legislators losing their seats.

On returning from his annual holiday in Singapore, Mugabe repeated his call for elections in 2011 indicating that as President, he had the constitutional authority to dissolve Parliament and call for elections. This was strongly disputed by Morgan Tsvangirai, the Prime Minister and president of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T), who rightly argued that Mugabe cannot dissolve Parliament and call for elections without first consulting the other two Principals.

The purpose of this piece is to map out some of the possible scenarios that Zimbabwe may be faced with in 2011/2012. Given the volatility of the Zimbabwe political situation, it is only fair to caution that all four of the scenarios outlined below could change significantly with the passage of time.

Scenario One: Ivory [Most Likely]

We have called this first scenario Ivory since it is inspired by some of the events that are currently taking place in the Ivory Coast, which closely resemble the events that occurred in Zimbabwe in 2008. It is ironic that in its wisdom (or lack of it), the African Union (AU) included President Mugabe on the team of mediators that will be working on the Ivorian crisis. Despite Mugabe-s call for elections in 2011, there is likely to be SADC pressure on the inclusive government to fully implement the global political agreement (GPA) so as to ensure that the next elections are credible and indisputable. The legal and institutional reforms that are spelt out in the GPA would have to be implemented, as well as the twenty-four outstanding issues that have already been agreed on but have not yet been implemented.

The time required for the drafting of the new constitution and the holding of a referendum will essentially mean that no elections can be conducted in Zimbabwe in 2011. Both formations of the MDC have so far indicated that they will not agree to participate in elections before the GPA stipulated reforms are in place. Elections can, however, be held should any one of the three parties to the GPA indicate that they are no longer interested in participating in the GNU.

There are growing fears for Mugabe-s health since he will be turning 87 this February. Zanu- PF would therefore prefer that elections are held as soon as possible while Mugabe is still in reasonable health. There are, however, some Zanu-PF members of Parliament who are not keen on early elections as they are afraid of losing their seats to the popular MDC-T. Zanu-PF is very likely to deploy elements from the security sector to campaign for Mugabe and his party, and this will essentially mean that there will be serious levels of political violence. At the same time, the business community is worried that elections in 2011 will most likely have a negative impact on the fragile economy which, though stable, is improving at a very slow pace due to the political uncertainties, limited foreign direct investment and Zimbabwe-s ill-conceived policies such as the indigenization and economic empowerment policy. There will therefore be limited transition to democracy and polarisation will remain as any healing and reconciliation efforts will fail to gather momentum. As a result, the MDC-T is likely to get stronger while Zanu-PF will be weakened under this scenario.

Download full document

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP