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A
trumpet call for a coalition in Zim: Lessons from history for Tsvangirai,
Dabengwa, Makoni and Mutambara
Bhekilizwe
Bernard Ndlovu
November 20, 2010
It is known
to the whole world that Zimbabwe is facing serious problems right
now and the feeling amongst many people is that the beautiful country
is headed for the worst come next year. The ill fated marriage of
convenience between sworn enemies MDC and ZANU (PF) is on the rocks
and it is the general populace that is set to bear the brunt of
their tug of war. Just how the MDC found itself in this mess boggles
the mind. What is clear though is that ZANU (PF) has been 'smarter-
and shrewder than their foes. The opposition team needs to regroup
and perhaps to come to terms with the fact that they need reinforcement.
It is disappointing that a trusted team with respected legal brains
like Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube would sign a GPA
with loopholes that ZANU (PF) would go on to manipulate. The begging
question is where were they?
That the opposition
went on to expend so much energy and money on another ill fated
exercise of the constitution making process is another clear sign
that they have been inept and been caught napping. ZANU (PF) leaders
must be looking back and going 'phew- in a celebratory
mood, happy that they managed to diffuse the hot wind and air that
the MDC had managed to create around them after the 2008
elections. Now Lovemore Madhuku and the NCA
are saying we told you so. The constitution has been a ZANU (PF)
document again and the MDC is strangely saying they will vote for
it and discard it later. All this shows how ill prepared the opposition
was entering this agreement and how lacking they were in shrewdness
and cunning. ZANU (PF) managed to divert their energies and attention
from the real issue of removing them to mundane issues of a constitution
that would never be the will of the people as long as ZANU (PF)
is still there and ruling. How could they have thought that Mugabe
would put his signature on a document he didn-t agree with?
It was like writing a letter to end a relationship with a lover
knowing full well that he will be the one to sign it in the end.
ZANU (PF) also managed to discredit their enemies
by making them gibber and gibber about sanctions and positions.
Now ZANU (PF) has a tramp card for elections in the form of claiming
that even the MDC know that the sanctions or restrictive measures
are hurting the economy of Zimbabwe. We know full well that that
is just part of the problem and not the whole. The MDC has spent
months trying to get Roy Bennert sworn in as Deputy Minister of
Agriculture. In the meantime ZANU (PF) has been secretly telling
its allies in the SADC that the MDC is trying to reverse land redistribution
exercise by making a white man part of the agriculture equation.
Couldn-t the MDC have been wiser than fall for that trap so
easily? Don-t they know that perception is critical in politics?
That-s the MDC for you playing all their cards wrong and leaving
the MDC smiling with gladness with their Jonathan Moyos taking the
opportunity to reflect Morgan Tsvangirai as a charlatan and a quack.
Well there is an element of truth in that because the MDC has made
claims they have not been able fulfill. That is not fair to the
people of Zimbabwe and we certainly don-t want to be told
that by Jonathan coming from the camp that is are problem number
one. Zimbabwe needs the opposition but not the way it is. Tsvangirai
still has a role to play to remove ZANU (PF) but he certainly needs
to view things differently now and he needs to come to terms with
the fact that he cannot do it alone.
What has been
clear to most Zimbabweans and any other thinking person with interest
in the Zimbabwe problem is that our problem does not lie with the
constitution per se, at least for now. The constitution
needs to be changed but that is not Zimbabwe-s priority number
one because even with a good one ZANU (PF) will still violate its
provisions. So why waste time and money and get people maimed and
killed over a futile exercise that won-t change anything but
only serves to help ZANU (PF) buy time and push their agenda of
stay in power? Get me right here; I am not one of those who think
that the constitution is not critical. It is so critical for Zimbabwe
that we cannot do it under ZANU (PF). What is of priority for me
now is to remove ZANU (PF) and Robert Mugabe and start on a fresh
page and write a new constitution.
One can safely say that the opposition has failed to read ZANU (PF)-s
game plan. It is clear now that as far as ZANU (PF) is concerned
elections in Zimbabwe are not just about the ballot box. The 2008
elections made it clear that it is the case in Zimbabwe. Where then
is ZANU (PF)-s secret in all this? I do not claim that my
view is exhaustive. There could be other variable in all this but
the military variable is at the top of all this. It is a ZANU (PF)
tramp card bought with passion by the SADC and in particular, South
Africa. The MDC can cry, rant and rave but as long as they do not
come up with a package that satisfies the SADC that their intentions
are not to reverse the 'gains- of independence they
might as well forget ever making a difference in Zimbabwe. As long
as the opposition does not blend their desire for freedom with some
military credentials, they have a lot of waiting to do. This is
not to say the SADC is right. No! All I am saying is that they are
well positioned to stall any attempt by the opposition to liberate
Zimbabweans from the tight hold of a corrupt regime whose interest
is only cargo inspired. The country recently got a good case study
in the form of Ignatius Chombo who owns a property literally in
all corners of the country. What is clear though is that ZANU (PF)
has quite an ally in the form of SADC and I am convinced that the
opposition does not see that. If they did, they would spend sleepless
nights addressing that.
Joshua Nkomo got it too late that Britain had sent
Lord Soames to hand over Zimbabwe to Robert Mugabe in 1980. The
late larger than life hero of Zimbabwe was bitten left, right and
centre in that game. He did not read the game plan. He even went
to Lord Soames to complain about violence and intimidation during
the 1980 elections not realizing that Lord Soames- mandate
was to ensure that ZANU (PF) won elections. At least the late liberation
hero admits in his book that he was not prepared for that shift.
In his autobiography he admits 'Nothing in my life had prepared
me for a fight against my own brother.- One could add a rejoinder
to his admission and say 'And I had not realized that at that
time ZANU (PF) was not alone in the ring but was supported by Britain
and of course America.-
Now will the fact that ZANU (PF) is not playing
alone in the ring become clear for the opposition. Is what happened
to Joshua Nkomo not enough to help them read ZANU (PF)-s game
plan? Is it not clear that the SADC is Lord Soames reincarnate?
And the SADC is as strong as Lord Soames right now. Let me dampen
their spirits even more and say even if Tsvangirai wins by 75% there
will still be collation and recounting of election results for a
long time if not forever. Am I saying therefore that we are stuck
and doomed and cannot get ourselves out of this quagmire? By no
means. What I am saying is that we need to understand that that
is the case and move from there. We cannot wish away this reality
but can only scheme against it and fight it. The battle is not just
about ZANU (PF) but the SADC as well. It is about a generation of
military veterans who are scared of coming to terms with the fact
that Zimbabwe will one day have non of them as natural attrition
begins to do duty.
Those who cared to observe the 2008 elections must
have seen how ZANU (PF) made sure that Simba Makoni did not get
any media coverage for his campaign. Why that? Was it because Morgan
Tsvangirai had suddenly become a loved one and Makoni the hated
one? Remember Morgan-s famous adverts about 'Morgan
is More . . . .? All I remember of Makoni-s efforts was his
interview by the not so intelligent Happison Muchechetere. That
interview was an insult to Simba? Why did ZANU (PF) give more room
to Tsvangirai? My considered view is that it was going to be difficult
for ZANU (PF) to rig elections and refuse to hand over power to
Simba and Dumiso Dabengwa. There was no sale out tag on these two
and there were serious military credentials in this camp. There
was no plan B after elections if Simba and Dumiso had won. ZANU
(PF) would have had no choice but to hand over power to Simba who
had come out of ZANU (PF) and had the backing of the former ZAPU
intelligence supremo. ZANU (PF) knew and feared that.
Right now ZANU
(PF)-s biggest fear is a proper coalition that dispels the
perception that the opposition will reverse the gains of independence.
The opposition has a good chance of ousting ZANU (PF) through that
coalition. The challenge is coming up with terms that favor all
parties involved. The opposition needs to put the interests of the
people of Zimbabwe first. South Africa and the SADC will not support
ZANU (PF) against a balanced opposition. I am not a prophet I can
strongly predict that if they don-t swallow their pride and
come together they will continue in that vicious cycle of politics.
And there will certainly be casualties in their camps. This time
around there will be deaths and arrests and prosecutions. ZANU (PF)
knows that they have overstayed their welcome and that opposition
will try their level best to remove them from power. They won-t
take that lying down. They will fight tooth and nail and their teeth
and nails will sink into some people-s skins. Mark my words.
The stakes are higher for ZANU (PF) and they now come with some
much confidence having diffused one of the most difficult pressure
moments in 2008.
The 1975 situation has a few lessons for the opposition. This was
the time when Ian Smith released Joshua Nkomo and Msika from prison
and unwittingly asked them to stop the war which he called terrorism
much to the chagrin of both Joshua and Msika. Ian Smith agreed to
hand over power to Nkomo and support that act also. It was Nkomo
who rightfully raised the issue of Robert Mugabe and ZANU (PF) saying
that they had a part to play. Smith left it in their hands to talk
amongst themselves and come back to him with a stance. It was then
that Nkomo called all opposition leaders through Kenneth Kaunda
and Julius Nyerere to discuss the possibility of a unity accord
in order to stop the war and take over power from Smith. Sadly they
failed to agree with people like Robert Mugabe and the late Hebert
Chitepo strongly opposing the unity for self aggrandizement. And
sadly too that missed chance to stop the war and carry on with life
claimed many lives including that of Hebert Chitepo who was instrumental
in refusing to work with Joshua Nkomo. Nkomo actually describes
him in his autobiography as 'that intelligent advocate who
later became my adversary.- If Tsvangirai continues with his
arrogant attitude of saying that other opposition parties should
join him, I will not be surprised if history repeats itself and
makes him pay for letting a good chance pass. Makoni, Dabengwa,
Mutambara and Tsvangirai can do something about this with the backing
of the people of Zimbabwe. They can enter into a temporary emergency
landing agreement and part ways as soon as they land. We don-t
want to prescribe a solution to them but we are crazy enough to
think that a coalition that gives equal powers to Morgan Tsvangirai
and Dabengwa can work as a temporary measure. A dual presidency
is not a far fetched idea. Simba Makoni can play a critical role
of putting the economy back on course while Mutambara negotiates
better international relations in the capacity of Minister of foreign
affairs. These parties can then work on the constitution and hold
proper elections without ZANU (PF) say after two or three years.
I am sure a lot of other possibilities can be explored. What is
certain is that Zimbabwe needs a coalition.
*Ndlovu
is a University of the Witwatersrand Master of Arts in Dramatic
Art Graduate based in South Africa with interest in human rights.
Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.
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