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Zimbabwe unity government faces collapse
Mxolisi Ncube, World Politics Review
April 17, 2009

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3625

Zimbabwe's national unity government faces imminent collapse, due to its failure to get critical financial aid from the international community. Experts have now warned that the government might soon fail to pay its workers, with the potential for serious civil unrest as a result.

Zimbabwe needs at least $8.5 billion in financial aid in order to reconstruct its economy. But its appeals have so far drawn blanks due to donors' skepticism over President Robert Mugabe's sincerity in working with the opposition.

Even the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) -- which brokered the accord establishing the unity government and remains its custodian -- has so far failed to produce assistance, despite its approval last month of Zimbabwe's reconstruction plan.

South Africa's foreign affairs minister, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, said on Monday that the SADC was lobbying the U.S. and EU to lift their sanctions on Zimbabwe, while also canvassing for economic support. However, that mission might fail if Mugabe -- whose populist policies and mismanagement of resources are largely blamed for destroying one of Africa's erstwhile model economies -- does not change his ruling tactics.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which sent a fact-finding team to the former British colony two weeks ago, said that Zimbabwe would not receive fresh funding before it clears its burgeoning arrears. Those date back to February 2001, and stood at $137.4 million last month.

"Assistance from the IMF will depend on establishing a track record of sound policy implementation, donor support and a resolution of overdue financial obligations to official creditors, including the IMF," the fund said in a statement last week.

The IMF cut balance-of-payments support to Zimbabwe in 1999, after differences with Mugabe over fiscal policy and other governance issues. Zimbabwe is also in arrears of $656 million and $449.5 million to the World Bank and the African Development Bank, respectively.

Western donors have demanded the creation of a democratically elected government and bold economic reforms -- including reversing nationalisation policies -- before they make financial commitments. They also want guarantees of human rights, the release of all political prisoners, the restoration of press freedom and an immediate end to Mugabe's violent land seizures.

However, Mugabe, who still remains fully in charge of state security organs, has so far refused to comply. More than 10 activists from Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party are still missing, after being abducted late last year. The state denies any knowledge of their whereabouts.

The few that were released from custody -- including Roy Bennet, the MDC's nominee for deputy minister of agriculture -- are still facing terrorism charges. MDC officials claim the charges have been trumped up to stifle opposition, but Mugabe has refused to drop them.

Mugabe's supporters have also launched a new wave of farm invasions against the few remaining white farmers in the country. The Commercial Farmers Union (CFU) reported that more than 100 farms belonging to its members have been impacted during the past few weeks.

"Mugabe seems to be determined to see the remaining few white farmers leave the country," said a CFU spokesman Tuesday. "Police are also wantonly arresting our members for trying to resist the evictions, while some of them have been assaulted, detained, or had their property destroyed."

Agriculture Minister Hebert Murerwa dismissed the reports as false. But several analysts have blamed the invasions on the hidden hand of Zanu-PF hardliners who are opposed to the government of national unity. Among the hardline Mugabe loyalists are security chiefs who in the past have vowed never to salute Tsvangirai, even if he were to become president of the country and commander-in-chief of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF).

The MDC has complained about the farm seizures, which it warns will undermine the unity government and block the desperately needed financial assistance. "This is a threat to the rule of law, to decency, to hope and to economic recovery," said party spokesman, Nelson Chamisa. "The farm disturbances and arrests of farmers are not only a threat to food security, but to the goodwill that the international community had started to extend to the inclusive government."

However, Mugabe told his Zanu-PF party's central committee last Wednesday that the land seizures would continue despite the MDC's objections, demonstrating Mugabe's executive powers and the opposition's lack of influence in the new government.

* Mxolisi Ncube is an exiled Zimbabwean freelance journalist based in Johannesburg, covering politics and human rights. He used to report for the Zimbabwean, a privately owned weekly newspaper, and various political Web sites both locally and abroad, until fleeing government persecution in August.

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