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Zanu PF swallowing poison pill
Alex Magaisa, NewZimbabwe.com
October 17, 2008

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/magaisa100.18901.html

For a man of his age, intellect and experience, it boggles the mind why President Mugabe does not appear to have learned from the precedents before him. For a party of its collective experience, it is difficult to fathom why Zanu PF has failed to learn from the mistakes of its counterparts across Africa.

Because, if there is one discernible feature in the trajectory of African politics since independence, it is that liberation parties that fail to adapt are doomed and will often contract terminal illness at the departure of a long-serving leader.

One day, Mugabe shall depart, yes, even if that has to await God-s will as he suggested a few months ago. At this rate, Zanu PF is unlikely to survive his departure and the Power-Sharing deal is no more than a palliative for an ailing patient - it may reduce the pain but it does not remove the cause of the pain. The sad spectacle is that it is dragging Zimbabwe down with it.

Age of the Liberation Party and the One-Party State

Liberation parties are those organisations that orchestrated the struggle for independence in African countries. It is interesting to observe the way these parties have handled the challenges of governance in their respective countries; how and why some have survived and others have failed.

There is a clear line, which is that, in a process akin to natural selection, the more adaptable have survived whilst the less adaptable have suffered inevitable demise.

It is in this context that it is arguable that the Power-Sharing Deal in Zimbabwe is an attempt by Zanu PF to cope with the spectre of extinction but that this, too, is only likely to be temporary relief.

The trajectory of African politics indicates that at independence and for thirty or so years thereafter, most countries followed the authoritarian one-party state system.

Statistics show that by the end of the 1980s, nearly 50 African states were one-party states or ruled by a military junta.

In 32 states, opposition parties were illegal and elections were mere formalities to confirm the incumbent.

Daniel Arap Moi, then President of Kenya is quoted as having said in 1984, 'I would like my ministers, assistant ministers and others to sing like a parrot after me. That is how we can progress." (Meredith 2006).

This typified the mentality of the leaders at the time, influenced mainly by the Soviet-style communist paradigm. The result was that liberation parties claimed all political territory and suppressed, often violently, any opposition or dissent.

End of the Cold War and the advent of Multi-Party Politics

The end of the Cold War, signified most visibly by the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union brought fundamental changes to African politics. The Soviet Union was no longer able to sustain its large network of client states. Suddenly, the ruling liberation parties had to conform to a new environment of multi-party politics, driven mainly by rising internal opposition due to repression and poverty caused by the authoritarian politics.

It was also fuelled by renewed Western influence in African politics. The US in particular made the spread of democracy a key part of its foreign policy. The structural adjustment programmes of the IMF/World Bank tied democracy to potential assistance. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that there was a flurry of elections in most African states in the early 1990s, as they embraced multi-party politics largely for convenience rather than in good faith.

Accepting the challenge of the opposition was a new phenomenon which the liberation parties, long used to dominating all political space, had to cope with.

As a superficial measure of democracy, the election suddenly enabled the transformation of authoritarian strong-men into 'democrats-. The ritual of the election was, rather unfortunately and inaccurately, equated with democracy. The wider values and institutions, developed through struggle over long periods of time and, therefore, firmly in place in the Western political universe where democracy appeared to flourish, were non-existent or at best, limited, in the African context.

For example, where the judiciary, responsible for resolving conflicts, is emasculated by one of the contestants, the election process is ineffective since the incentive to be fair is limited.

Adaptability of the Liberation Party

It is interesting to observe how, using examples from the South and East African regions, the liberation parties responded to the challenge of multi-party politics. I have divided the countries by response into two sets, the Adaptable and the Non-Adaptable sets, depending on how the liberation parties have coped with change.

The Adaptable set

This includes countries where the liberation parties seem to have, so far at least, successfully faced up to the challenge of multi-party politics. The one common feature among them is that they are all still in power, since independence.

Furthermore, they have adapted by using a largely similar approach, namely, that of allowing a modicum of internal party democracy and leadership succession. By allowing choice from within, they have managed to provide alternatives and also to portray a façade of democracy to the wider world. Let us observe how they have each re-adjusted to the challenge of multi-party politics:

Tanzania

When Mwalimu Julius Nyerere saw that the end was nigh he departed gracefully in 1985 and was succeeded by Ali Hassan Mwinyi. Mwinyi who handed over to Benjamin Mkapa. Mkapa passed the baton to the current President Jakaya Kikwete. All these leaders belong to the liberation party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi ("CCM") - a clear example of adaptability, even though it was at the forefront of the one-party system in the 1970s.

Botswana

It is rightly held as Africa-s longest multi-party democracy, having adopted the system at independence in 1966. But in those 42 years, the ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party ("BDP") has never lost power to the opposition. Sir Seretse Khama, the first President was succeeded by Sir Ketumile Masire who later stepped down for Festus Mogae. Mogae recently handed over power to Seretse Khama Ian Khama, the son of the country-s first leader. Notice how power has been carefully and smoothly passed from one leader to another within the same political family.

Mozambique

The country that got off to a tumultuous start with Samora Machel at the helm has clamed down lately. When Machel died tragically in 1986, he was succeeded by Joachim Chissano who successfully steered the country out of the civil war, served his terms and gracefully left power to the current President Armando Guebuza. As in Tanzania and Botswana, the liberation party, FRELIMO, has retained power since independence and enabled internal leadership succession and change, thereby providing a respectable façade of democracy.

Space constraints do not permit a full outline of the other two countries in this set but suffice to say that SWAPO of Namibia, despite Nujoma-s desire to stay on, has also managed to enable succession and South Africa, the youngest of the set, has so far managed, albeit the current problems, to provide for internal succession through the ANC.

The Non-Adaptable set

This is the set of countries where the liberation parties failed to cope with change and have suffered a terrible patch after the leader-s departure. These are:

Zambia

Kaunda led Zambia for 27 years since independence in 1964. He lost heavily to Chiluba in the watershed election in 1991. He became one of the first high profile victims of the new age of politics and his party, UNIP, was left in the doldrums after his demise. It has not recovered since.

Kenya

Moi took over the leadership after the death of Jomo Kenyatta in 1978. By 1982 Kenya was a one-party state and Moi retained power, with an iron grip, until 2002 when he 'retired- before the election which his party, KANU, lost to the opposition. It, too, has never recovered.

Malawi

Banda ruled this small country with an iron-fist from independence in 1964 until he lost power to Bakili Muluzi in 1994, after reluctantly accepting multi-party politics. Declared President for Life in 1971 even in the twilight of his life, when he was frail and losing sight, he tried to hang on. The Malawi Congress Party is still in the game but 14 years after losing power, it is a far cry from the party that swept all the seats on offer at independence.

So where, then, does Zimbabwe-s Zanu PF fit?

It is the liberation party in Zimbabwe. Mugabe has dominated Zanu PF politics since independence. The subject of succession in Zanu PF is almost taboo. It has failed to learn from the mixed fortunes of the other liberation parties.

Kenya-s Moi was crafty enough to throw in the towel and avoid outright humiliation in 2002. Kaunda and Banda, on the other hand, failed to read the omens and lost dismally. Banda must have died a broken man. At least Kaunda has clawed back some respectability with some good work in his post-presidency years.

It does seem that Mugabe-s way of coping with the challenges has been to avoid the humiliation of departure in the wake of defeat and then to concede to a Power-Sharing Deal with his adversary, Morgan Tsvangirai.

In this context, the Power-Sharing Model is just another way of dealing with failure. It is a way of taming the beast of democracy. The Adaptable Set has not required this model because they have adapted well enough to retain power. A true test will come when the opposition in those countries gains sufficient ground to threaten their comfort zone.

The power-sharing deal may have saved Mugabe from humiliation of Kaunda and Banda, but the likelihood is that for Zanu PF the relief is only short-term; a mere painkiller rather than a cure against a terminal disease. It is odd that the many men and women in Zanu PF watch idly whilst their party partakes the poison-pill.

Alex Magaisa is based at Kent Law School, The University of Kent. He can be contacted at wamagaisa@yahoo.co.uk

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