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Mugabe's intentions are now quite clear
Tendai Dumbutshena, Zimbabwe Times
October 01, 2008

http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=5097

Nelson Mandela was reluctant to publicly criticise Thabo Mbeki, his successor as president of South Africa. He therefore did not join the chorus of condemnation of Mbeki's handling of the Zimbabwe crisis.

He, however, felt compelled to break the silence on Zimbabwe following the inordinate delay in announcing the results of the March 29 presidential poll and the orgy of violence unleashed by the state. He attributed the mess in Zimbabwe to a catastrophic failure of leadership.

Painfully evidence of that is plain to see. Six months have passed since the March 29 elections and the country has effectively no government. The country is bleeding to death while Robert Mugabe fiddles. With the presidency firmly in his pocket he seems to be in no hurry to implement the power-sharing agreement signed on 15 September. This is a clear contrast to the speed at which things were done, following the forced resignation of Mbeki in South Africa. Within three days a new president had been elected who swiftly moved to constitute and swear in a cabinet. This is in a country that is fully functional.

Such urgency is conspicuous by its absence in Zimbabwe. Soon after the signing of the agreement Mugabe flew to New York with a large entourage to deliver another inconsequential tirade against the West. No progress could be made on outstanding issues while he was away for a full week. With the situation on Zimbabwe rapidly deteriorating by the day there was no one to attend to pressing matters. The economy, now driven by black marketers, criminals and corrupt officials, continued on a steep downward trajectory. On his return a welcome rally at the airport was organized as if he was a conquering hero. What is the point? The mindlessness of it all is utterly depressing.

Mugabe said a cabinet would be announced by the end of the week. This gave the impression that the issue of the sharing of the key portfolios had been resolved.

The world was subsequently informed that a meeting between MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and Mugabe on the issue was deadlocked. Mugabe's intentions are now quite clear. If the agreement is to be implemented it must be on his own terms. The MDC made all the important concessions to make the agreement possible. Mugabe said a government would be formed within a few days on the expectation that yet again the MDC would yield to his demands for Zanu-PF to get all the portfolios it deems important in its calculations. If the MDC does not participate on this issue Mugabe is quite prepared to let the deal collapse.

The MDC has brought this on itself. It was folly of the highest order to shift from their critical principled position of a transitional inclusive government. Once they made that crucial blunder they were on a slippery slope to surrender. The party's spokesman Nelson Chamisa said Zanu-PF should not labour under the illusion that they are desperate to be in government. But that is the impression they created as they ceded ground to Zanu-PF on all major issues. The end-result was an agreement that merely legitimized Mugabe as president leaving his powers virtually intact. Now Mugabe, resentful of their presence in government, even as junior partners, wants to humiliate them. He is conducting negotiations on the cabinet posts on a take it or leave it basis hoping with some justification that the pattern of capitulation by the MDC will persist.

At the airport he made it clear that nothing would change, fully mindful of the consequences of his sterile rhetoric. Nothing has changed. For Mugabe it is "me first, Zanu-PF second and Zimbabwe last and least." The MDC is now appealing to the AU and SADC to intervene as guarantors of the agreement. These bodies have stated that Mbeki should remain mediator, notwithstanding his loss of power in South Africa. Mugabe knows that with his presidency secured he has nothing to fear from Africa. It is a done deal. Mbeki neither had the inclination nor courage to apply meaningful pressure on Mugabe when he was leader of the most powerful country in the region. What can he do now that he is stripped of all power? It is not even clear that he still wants to be mediator after the trauma and humiliation he suffered.

As previously stated in this column as far as Africa goes the MDC now has nowhere to run to. Guarantees given to the agreement by the AU and SADC are worthless. Both bodies recognized Mugabe's presidency soon after the June 27 putsch. The MDC got itself into this mess and must sort itself out of it. It is not difficult to imagine what will happen should the so-called power-sharing government be formed. Frozen out of power Tsvangirai and his Council of Ministers will be mere spectators as Mugabe continues to rule with a coterie of securocrats and CIO functionaries.

All he needs Parliament for is to pass the budget which no party can afford to oppose. Tsvangirai will be in charge of nothing. Mugabe refuses to budge on the position of head of government because that would have given Tsvangirai real power over cabinet. As things stand the MDC will have imaginary supervisory and policy formulation powers. The fact that Mugabe refuses to give the MDC ministries he considers important reveals what role he envisages for them in the new government.

The end result will be a government that will have no credibility in the eyes of that section of the international community whose financial support is essential for Zimbabwe's economic prospects. Unable to improve the economy the government will lose credibility among the people of Zimbabwe. This will be no skin off Mugabe's nose. He will be firmly in the presidential saddle with his power underpinned by the generals and fatalistically accepted by a frightened population. As for Tsvangirai he will learn the hard way that in politics you cannot afford to let your judgement desert you at critical junctures. Good intentions alone are simply not enough.

Years back the British international publication The Economist published an edition with the cover title "Africa: The Hopeless Continent." An editorial comment in that issue concluded: "Africa is ill-served by its leaders." Tragically this is being borne out in Zimbabwe. Mugabe's callous selfishness and Tsvangirai's naiveté combine to deny the people of Zimbabwe the leadership they so desperately need. It is a catastrophic failure of leadership.

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