Back to Index

This article participates on the following special index pages:

The crucial 11 votes
Leonard Makombe
July 25, 2008

Politics involves a lot of risk and uncertainty.

There are times when politicians take issues for granted only to be rudely awakened by a shocking reality that they were very wrong in their assumptions.

There are a number of variables at play in politics and as a field of study it has been very fluid moving from one point to the other especially when it came to a scientific study of 'the struggle for power'.

One analyst once commented that political science is the most undisciplined discipline.

A scientific analysis of politics has shown that this simplistic assertion holds water and I totally agree with it but I always add that it may not be the scientific study of the discipline which is undisciplined but the objects, human beings, which constantly change so much so that you have to be a sociologist, historian, psychologist, biologist, economist and any other specialised field of study all in one to effectively study politics.

The constant change in the behavior of the objects under study, that is politicians and the people they seek to control/rule/lead, has made the study of politics exciting and at the same time an academic minefield. It is an exciting field to the extent that some people who never attended even a single lecture on political science may claim to be political scientists or analysts, something that is unheard of in other fields such as economics and law.

Change is part of politics and what may hold true today may tomorrow be utterly wrong as the principal players in the unfolding drama of politics always try to maximize power or access to it.

As such it is always prudent to ask some questions, especially at this historical moment in Zimbabwe when talks have just started, as to what the country's political configuration currently is and what it will be in two weeks, two months and two years.

One political reality that came as a result of the March election is the loss of the parliamentary majority by Zanu PF.

The causes of the loss by reasons from within Zanu PF itself, the organising capacity of the MDC and those who supported it, the economy and other factors have to a certain extent been explored and analysed somewhere else.

The response to this, in the form of a violent campaign for the runoff has also been explored and there are many stories and angles to this.

However, our attempt is to look at what is happening now as an undercurrent to the talks.

While there may be negotiations as to who will wield more power, there is a very crucial set of 11 seats which appear to be up for grabs and it is our sincere submission that these are as important as the other seats a political part may have won.

Immediately after the March elections, almost all analysts were of the opinion that Zanu PF was now in opposition since it had lost its majority in the lower house of assembly, and this was the first time something like this had happened since 1980.

This still holds true as Zanu PF still has 99 seats to MDC-T's 100 seats.

However, events since the runoff/one off, have once again shown that there are no certainties in politics.

How is this so?

One point to be remembered is that despite a formal agreement on joining forces in parliament, the MD factions still operate as different entities as witnessed by the fielding of candidates in the three parliamentary seats contested together with the runoff and also the fact that there are times when for example Mutambara's formation may go it alone as in meeting Mbeki at the beginning of July.

As such there is no certainty as to the fate of the 10 seats that the Mutambara factions holds. This will be explained shortly.

Then there is the other seat held by Professor Jonathan Moyo. The professor has shown his political acumen and the Machiavellian scheming by managing to make sure that the MDC-T does not field a candidate in Tsholotsho, he then turned, with or without justification, and started blaming the MDC-T for craft illiteracy when it comes to political strategies. The merits and demerits of this is not the intention of this input though. What is clear now is that this seat is now floating and it is doing so only in the Zanu PF direction, be it because of issues of 'nationalism and patriotism'.

(It needs no political, not rocket, scientist to realise that logically this seat would have been more comfortable in unoion with the MDC-T one as an extension of the agreement not to compete in March and also as those united against Zanu (PF). It may be argued though that the seat initially belonged to the professor but the trend is usually that you win this election as an independent and lose it next election. It may not have been the case though depending on hard the professor was working in his constituency. Also this election was held only three years after the previous election thus may not follow a trend that was set with a five year range elections.)

It can now be drawn from above that potentially Zanu PF has an equal number of seats with MDC-T taht is if what professor Moyo has been showing and saying is anything to go by.

Then the dog fight starts on who will get the backing of the MDC, that is the 10 seats.

When speaking in terms of the union of democratic alliances, then the seats will back MDC-T but like we mentioned above, politics is very unpredictable thus it is not with any finality. If anything, the seats are more up for grabs than in anyone's certain hands.

One has to read the friction that caused a heat in the run up to the runoff when it was alleged that MDC-T had tried to lure the winning MPs without first going through proper party channels. From that incident it has not been certain whether the commitment to support MDC-T still held and it appears to most of us that the Mutambara faction has realized that it is the lever that will tilt the decision in the lower house in any direction. Talk of the power of a small number over a large number.

There may be some promises being made and the party that is likely to be making more promises is Zanu PF (dangling the carrots) mainly because technically, it is the ruling party and depending on the outcome of the talks it is most likely that they are wielding a certain leverage they may use to mop up the floating seats one of which now appears to be certain.

One also has to look at the eagerness with which Mutambara and company were eager to enter the talks against the background of the reluctance by Tsvangirai. I am not being in support or opposition to the reluctance, as it is up to MDC-T to see what is good for them. I am only mentioning it as an important factor that supports the argument that the other faction may be playing its cards in a way that they seek to maximize their chances of acquiring or accessing power.

After all maybe their decision to support MDC-T in the runoff was based on the possibility of acquiring power just as when they chose to support Dr Simba Makoni in the first place.

What we are likely to see are talks behind talks or they may already have been concluded with the MDC and Professor Moyo now knowing what is in store for them.

This is one exciting thing about politics, the element of uncertainty in the ordinary man as well as those who think may be wielding power which they may want to use to acquire more power. However, the pitfalls come with the danger such manipulations may bring to the populace.

In the meantime we can just watch as the drama unfolds and it is only after the curtain falls, maybe with the announcement of the new cabinet, that we will be able to see what has been taking place behind closed doors. We may heave a sigh of relief and say it was a masterpiece or never want to hear of the drama again as we may be frustrated by the tragedy.

They say politicians, because they cannot admire the beauty of politics, make it a dirty game but it remains a with winners and losers, some win fairly others by any means necessary.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP