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Mbeki's
prescient warning to Bob
Mandy Rossouw, Mail & Guardian (SA)
June 27, 2008
http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-06-27-mbekis-prescient-warning-to-bob
Johannesburg
- A scathing critique of President Robert Mugabe and his ruling
Zanu PF written by President Thabo Mbeki sheds new light on the
South African leader's private view of the Zimbabwean crisis. The
2001 discussion document
was penned by Mbeki as a "humble contribution to the work that
Zanu PF must carry out". To be published in the June edition
of New Agenda, it was leaked to the Mail & Guardian this week.
It appears to clear Mbeki of the charge of being a covert admirer
of Mugabe's dictatorial regime. But it raises major questions about
why he has doggedly pursued a policy of appeasement - which never
looked like succeeding and has done South Africa's international
standing great harm. In the document Mbeki clearly sympathizes with
Zanu PF as "the party of revolution". Indeed, his perspective
is that through its economic mismanagement and political mistakes,
the ruling party is fuelling the rise of the MDC. But he encourages
Mugabe to work with the MDC and expand Zimbabwe's international
"circle of friends". He warns the Zimbabwean leader not
to drive anyone away on the basis that they are guilty of "imperialist
machinations aimed at limiting national sovereignty". "To
resort to anti-imperialist rhetoric will not solve the problems
of Zimbabwe but may compound them."
Mbeki warns that Zanu
PF has lost the backing of most Zimbabweans and has been taken over
by "war veterans" responsible for violence and intimidation.
There is a "clear alienation of the masses from the system
of governance", giving scope for the formation of the MDC.
"The disjuncture among the ruling party, the state machinery
and the people is also expressed by evidence of corruption within
the public sector and the desertion of large numbers of public sector
workers to the opposition party," he writes. Interestingly,
given his reluctance to criticize Mugabe's human rights abuses publicly,
Mbeki argues that Zanu PF has become "an opponent of the democratic
institutions of governance and democratic processes . . . for
whose establishment many militants lay down their lives". Perceptions
that Mugabe is a dictator "will inform the hostile global response
to Zimbabwe ... it will not diminish in its intensity but will get
worse". "The party must admit to itself that it has created
the condition for others to reach these conclusions," he says.
He urges Mugabe to encourage free, open and critical discussion
and ensure press freedom. The document asks whether it is "strategically
and tactically correct" for Zimbabwe to be in confrontation
with the United Kingdom. It also reminds Mugabe of the potential
fallout for South Africa - a worsening economic crisis in the form
of migration, pressures on the rand and "regional contagion".
Mbeki remarks that although
Zimbabwe played a leading role in Africa after independence, it
is now viewed as a country in crisis threatened by social and economic
collapse. "Support in Africa is lukewarm and hesitant, while
countries in Southern Africa are fearful of the consequences of
a deeper crisis in Zimbabwe. Globally it is presented as a negative
factor in the context of the development of Southern Africa and
Africa," he writes. He traces the start of Zimbabwe's problems
to its economic policies. Zanu PF wanted to "do what it could
to quickly improve the quality of life of the black majority",
initially using its budget and donors to fund education, health,
welfare and rural development programmes and improve public sector
salaries, school enrolment and black farmers' maize output. But
rising expenditure led to a high budget deficit and ultimately the
collapse of social services. When the budget could no longer carry
the burden the government was forced to call on the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) for help. "What has seemed to be the fertilizer
that ensured the growth of these services would turn out to be the
toxic substance that would kill these services," Mbeki writes.
He also criticizes the Zimbabwean government's lack of efforts to
encourage the growth of the productive sector. Underscoring falling
voter turnout in elections, Mbeki says Zanu PF has grown so complacent
that "they no longer need the conscious defence of the mobilised
masses". He warns that the 2000 parliamentary election showed
that almost half Zimbabwe's population had lost confidence in the
ruling party. "As membership of the party of revolution translated
into access to positions of employment, resources and authority,
so did the structures of the party begin to atrophy and to wither
away as representatives of the popular will."
Mbeki also accuses Mugabe
of eroding democratic practices within his own ranks. "This
is what has elevated the 'war veterans' to the position they now
occupy as the 'true' representative of the revolutionary project
in Zimbabwe. The war veterans have achieved a level of autonomy
that further weakens the capacity of the party of the revolution
to influence and lead the masses of the people." He accuses
the veterans of attracting the "lumpenproletariat" - criminal
elements - into its ranks and tells Zanu PF to distance itself from
them. Mbeki suggests that Zimbabwe does not have the strength to
confront and defeat the UK and that a conflictual relationship will
discourage the developed world from helping to resolve Zimbabwe's
land question. He suggests that Zanu PF soften its critical stance
on the IMF because "in reality, it cannot do without support
and assistance from the IMF". Zimbabwe cannot afford to "end
up in a situation of isolation, confronted by an array of international
forces she cannot defeat, condemned to sink into an ever-deepening
social and economic crisis", he writes.
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