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What next for Zimbabwe?
Janah Ncube
Extracted from Pambazuka News No. 384
June 26, 2008

http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/comment/48995

Morgan Tsvangirai dropped a bombshell by announcing his withdrawal as a candidate from the Presidential runoff elections scheduled to be held on June 27, 2008. This certainly cannot have been an easy decision for Mr. Tsvangirai who recently got the majority vote of 48% over President Mugabe-s 43%. The first time he contested as a candidate in 2002, the elections were marked with significant irregularities and he lost. This time, he does know for a fact that the majority of voters wanted him to be the next President but due to a recently introduced Constitutional clause, the next President of Zimbabwe must have 51% of the votes.

His decision has caused much chaos and confusion and a lot of people have been left perplexed and some feel betrayed by this move. Mr. Tsvangirai in his statement states his reasons for withdrawing as being state sponsored violence, his crippled campaign, the decimation of his party-s structures, the partisanship of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, MDC media blackout, the threats of war by the ZANU PF candidate and the backing they have received from the leaders of the army and the police and the planned rigging by ZANU PF.

The whole world has been following events in Zimbabwe since March 29 2008 when Zimbabwe held its harmonized elections whose results took over 2 weeks to be released. The situation has continuously deteriorated to become grim, tense and unbearable for Zimbabweans. The escalated levels of violence have seen the continuous brutal murder of ordinary Zimbabweans, their being mutilated, defaced, and having some of their body parts dismembered. There is a lot of blood being spilt in Zimbabwe right now in name of patriotism and change. As said by the Feminist Political Education Project in their April, May and June 2008 statements, the Zimbabwe crises cannot be solved by another election. Zimbabwe could not afford it. The prevailing socio economic and political conditions in the country and the threats of war by President Mugabe certainly discredit any electoral process.

So indeed, it is a relief that one of the candidates has exercised responsible leadership and stepped down from this election to protect the lives and the good of Zimbabwean people. The iniquitous armies of security personnel, hooligans, young men and women who are being armed by the politicians to execute violence and dishonour to other Zimbabweans, are causing great loss, pain and destruction not just to people-s bodies and property but to the soul of Zimbabwe as a Nation. The social harmony in the country has been shredded.

Thus Morgan Tsvangirai has not betrayed the struggle. In the light of the 29 March 2008 vote, the women and men tortured, violated and murdered since then, he is recognizing rather that you do not negotiate with the devil, nor do you play the game using his rules in his home ground. This is wising up.

My Pastor taught me that if you want to over-ride one law, you use a higher law. That is what Ghandi did, that is what Martin Luther King Junior did. Tsvangirai needs to use a higher law if he is to win any contest against ZANU PF. To continue with the game in such skewed circumstances would have set him up to loose and worse, legitimate a farce.

If Morgan Tsvangirai had proceeded in this election, he would have facilitated for Mugabe to not just be declared a winner but to do so in blazing glory. What we know is that should it have happened, the world would have complained a bit at first and then quietly moved on as we saw in Nigeria and Kenya-s last Presidential elections.

What Zimbabwe urgently needs is a negotiated settlement which should result in a Transitional Arrangement (TA) whose mandate is to foster an environment in which Zimbabweans can exercise their right to elect a leader without being subjected to violence, fear, intimidation or desperate socio economic conditions.

This arrangement should result in a body that will be given executive powers to manage government and state affairs for a limited period. The period should be determined by the amount of time needed to arrive at a democratically developed and adopted constitution. It should also be determined by the amount of time needed to restore relative peace and calm.

It cannot be headed by either Mr. Tsvangirai or President Mugabe, but rather by a Zimbabwean leader who acceptable to all political stakeholders. She or he would be assisted by a team composed of notable citizens of various disciplines that can be entrusted to manage portfolios to resuscitate our country-s industries, social sectors and rebuild trust in national institutions. None of these individuals should be politicians in any of the political parties recognized in Zimbabwe. The individuals in this body should not be allowed to run for any elections or public office appointed for at least 6 years after they have handed power over to an elected government.

With the leadership of state security agencies making partisan statements in support of ZANU PF and also with members of these agencies currently involved in meting out violence, a peace keeping force may need to be deployed in Zimbabwe to restore confidence to the people and also ensure that when elections take place, no armed renegades will take matters into their own hands. We cannot have our country held at ransom by threats to use arms we paid for as citizens, against us.

SADC and other African countries need to recognise that the fate of Zimbabwe is in their hands. We are not seeking the West to rescue our country, we are calling on our brothers and sisters to help us. The Heads of State in the SADC region now need to stand with the people of Zimbabwe and not its political leaders. While the quiet diplomacy strategy may have made sense at a certain turn in mediating the Zimbabwe crises that strategy has not worked.

The worst has happened, the Zimbabwean government has turned against its people and the people of Zimbabwe need to know that SADC and Africa stands with them and are not colluding with Mugabe and ZANU PF. The silence by SADC and other African states loudly condones what is being done in Zimbabwe. Zimbabweans and African people in general, need to know that African Heads of State are not cushioning and protecting someone who is blatantly and brazenly destroying the people he should be protecting and the country he should be building.

The one country, one-man mediation has truly been unfair considering the magnitude and complexity of the problem. To expect South African President Mbeki to handle this problem alone is to set him up for failure. He achieved much but certainly will not achieve anymore from this point on. The region as a bloc now needs to take responsibility and work together on this.

The Chairperson of SADC needs to again mobilise his peers but this time to take robust hands on responses to the Zimbabwean people. We all know that Zimbabwe has cost all SADC countries a whole lot economically, opportunity wise, stability wise and so it is to the interest of the region to solve this issue immediately.

More of African leaders need to follow the examples of Rwanda-s President Paul Kagame and Kenya-s Prime Minister Raila Odinga. They should be picking up their phones and calling SADC leaders and sending their envoys to SADC countries to urge SADC to take decisive action that will change things in the country and result in a transitional arrangement.

What is clear at this moment is that we have an illegitimate violent regime holding power. This should not be allowed to stand. We have a weak opposition waiting to rule, and this is unlikely to happen soon. A Government of National Unity is an impossible option in Zimbabwe with all that is currently taking place. However, a transitional arrangement is possible and will give us the time and space for tempers to cool down, and for anger to subside and we can again dream of a Zimbabwe that we all own and are proud of.

*Janah Ncube writes this essay as a concerned Zimbabwean citizen.

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