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How to put the heat on Mugabe
Paul Wolfowitz, The Wall Street Journal
June 25, 2008

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121435085253401573.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

On Sunday, Morgan Tsvangirai - the leader of Zimbabwe's main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, and the victor in the first round of that country's presidential election in March - announced that his party would not participate in the so-called runoff election scheduled for June 27.

"We can't ask the people to cast their vote when that vote will cost their lives. We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election," Mr. Tsvangirai said. "Mugabe has declared war, and we will not be part of that war."

This must have been a painful decision. It allows Zimbabwe's 84-year-old dictator, President Robert Mugabe, to run unopposed. Zimbabwean Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu is crowing: "The constitution does not say that if somebody drops out or decides to chicken out the runoff will not be held."

Morgan Tsvangirai is no coward. He has persevered despite arrests, beatings and assassination attempts. But Mugabe has made clear there will be only one result from elections. "We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X [on a ballot]," he told Zimbabwe's state-controlled Herald newspaper last week.

Mugabe's brutal security forces aren't waiting for the election. According to Mr. Tsvangirai, over 86 MDC supporters have been killed, more than 10,000 injured and maimed, 2,000 illegally detained, and 200,000 internally displaced. Others say the death toll is much higher. And the details of those numbers are horrifying: Dadirai Chipiro - the wife of an MDC official - was thrown into a hut and burned to death after her feet and one hand were first cut off. Her case is not unusual.

This horror recalls the slaughter of more than 10,000 members of the Ndebele tribe in the 1980s by the notorious North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade, headed by Col. Perence Shiri. He is now head of the Zimbabwean air force and one of six men recently named by the British government as responsible for the current "campaign of terror." Against this background, and with the security forces providing clubs and machetes to large numbers of unemployed young men, Mr. Tsvangirai had every reason to fear a repetition of that slaughter, or worse.

Mr. Tsvangirai's withdrawal now allows Mugabe to claim an election victory, but he would certainly have done so in any event - if necessary by rigging the ballot count. The important thing now is to deny him the legitimacy that he hopes for, and to sustain the courage and strength of the people of Zimbabwe in their hope for a better future.

Until now, the attitude of African leaders has been an obstacle to peaceful change. Despite everything, some still look to Mugabe's leadership in the historic fight against white supremacy. Most significant among them is President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa.

But breaks in this silence are starting to appear. The leaders of Botswana and Zambia have now criticized Mugabe strongly and publicly. Forty African civil society leaders, including 14 former presidents, issued a call for Zimbabwean authorities to allow a free and fair election. The foreign minister of Tanzania, one of Mugabe's traditional allies, has denounced the pre-election violence. Kenya's Prime Minister, Raila Odinga (a victim of election fraud in his own country), has called Mugabe "an embarrassment for Africa." In South Africa itself, Jacob Zuma, a populist who defeated Mr. Mbeki for the leadership of the African National Congress, has been openly critical. And last month, South African labor unions refused to unload a Chinese ship bearing arms for Mugabe, forcing the Chinese to beat a retreat.

Since Mr. Tsvangirai's withdrawal announcement, criticism from African governments has become stronger - even from Angola, one of Mugabe's closest allies. This provides an opening for a more active role by the international community.

Words of condemnation help to deny Mugabe's claims of legitimacy, but words alone are not enough. Specific sanctions against some of the leaders of the violence may also be useful, but their impact will be limited. Broad economic sanctions will only increase the suffering of Zimbabwe's people, whose misery has already been increased by Mugabe's refusal to accept emergency food assistance from the U.N.

There is also talk about U.N. peacekeeping forces or other forms of military intervention, but this does not seem to be what the people of Zimbabwe want. What the people of Zimbabwe clearly do want is to maintain the pressure on Mugabe and his cronies for peaceful, democratic change.

The international community should commit - as publicly and urgently as possible - to provide substantial support if Mugabe relinquishes power. Even if Mr. Tsvangirai were to become president tomorrow he would still face a daunting set of problems: restoring an economy in which hyperinflation has effectively destroyed the currency and unemployment is a staggering 70%; getting emergency food aid to millions who are at risk of starvation and disease; promoting reconciliation after the terrible violence; and undoing Mugabe's damaging policies, without engendering a violent backlash.

The international community should also say it will move rapidly to remove the burden of debts accumulated by the Mugabe regime and not force a new government to spend many months and precious human resources on the issue (as Liberia was forced to do to deal with the debts of Samuel Doe).

Given the strength and ruthlessness of the regime, change will not come easily. Nevertheless, developing a concrete vision for the future would help to rally the people of Zimbabwe around a long-term effort to achieve a peaceful transition. It would give Mr. Tsvangirai important negotiating leverage. And it could attract disaffected members of the regime.

Most importantly, dramatic action by the international community could embolden other Africans to confront the tragedy in their backyard. One step would be to offer Mugabe an honorable way out. South Africa or some other country should offer Mugabe a safe and comfortable retirement if he leaves without further violence.

Those who have suffered personally at his hands may feel that this would deprive them of justice. But this is a time when a compromise needs to be struck between the need for justice and the need to stop further violence. South Africa itself, under Nelson Mandela's leadership, once set an example for the world in this regard. Today it could help Zimbabweans develop their own process of "Truth and Reconciliation."

Ideally a non-Western institution, such as the African Development Bank, could take the lead in summoning a Friends of Zimbabwe conference. Hopefully, the wealthy oil-producing countries would participate. So too could China and India, successful developing countries that have shown a new interest in Africa.

The very fact of the international community coming together on short notice would send a strong message of hope to Zimbabweans and to all Africans who care about the future of that important country.

Mr. Wolfowitz, a former president of the World Bank, is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

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