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Mugabe simply not prepared to share power
Tendai Dumbutshena, The Zimbabwe Times
June 11, 2008

http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=378

There have been calls from many quarters for a government of national unity (GNU) in Zimbabwe to end the economic crisis and political impasse. The presidential run-off scheduled for June 27 is seen by advocates of a GNU as a recipe for deepening the crisis regardless of the outcome.

A fervent advocate of a GNU or transitional authority, as he prefers to call it, is Simba Makoni a losing candidate in the March 29 poll. He argues that not only would the run-off not solve the political crisis; the violence accompanying it would deepen divisions in an already polarized society.

Moreover, so dire is the current economic situation that the country simply cannot afford another election. Makoni quite correctly points out that conditions for a free and fair election do not exist because of violence and a compromised Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). He sees the transitional authority-s mandate as stabilizing the economy and creating an environment conducive to a free and fair election in two to five years.

The view that a run-off would be a costly exercise in futility is shared by the International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels -based think tank. In a recent report it argued that regardless of the result of the run off, Zimbabwe-s political and economic woes would deepen and persist.

A victory for incumbent Robert Mugabe would mean continued internal political conflict, rapid economic decline and international isolation. The report predicts a coup by the military should MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai win. The only sensible solution according to the ICG is a negotiated political settlement between the MDC and Zanu-PF.

In theory there is nothing wrong with the two parties agreeing to form a transitional coalition government to arrest Zimbabwe-s calamitous decline. Arguments advanced by Makoni, ICG and many others in favor of this proposition make sense. But are they realistic? Are conditions on the ground conducive to a pact between the MDC and Zanu-PF to put the national interest above all else?

Political analysis and strategy should not be made in a vacuum. If that happens it loses credibility and relevance.

Facts on the ground in Zimbabwe militate against the two parties working together. An undisputed truth is that Zanu-PF, so used to monopolizing power, is not interested in any coalition. It simply will not share power. To Mugabe the idea goes against every instinct in his body. The self-proclaimed apostle of a one-party state will not for a fraction of a second entertain sharing power with even God himself.

Mugabe through Patrick Chinamasa now peddles the falsehood that a GNU will be considered after the run-off. This assumes of course that Mugabe wins. Should he win the only item on the agenda would be the destruction of the MDC and Tsvangirai. To think that a victorious Mugabe would entertain any accommodation of the MDC is sheer madness. How can there be serious discussion of a GNU when Zanu-PF has embarked on a systematic elimination of MDC activists? How can there be national reconciliation when livelihoods of defenceless innocent people in rural areas are wantonly destroyed even now?

Zimbabwe-s election must be the only one in the world in which a party has to seek intervention by courts of law to hold campaign meetings and rallies. There is a determination to ensure that people are thoroughly intimidated not to be able to make a free choice. Access to state-owned print and electronic media is denied to the MDC. Instead a crude and vicious propaganda against the MDC has been unleashed under the direction of the Ministry of Information. The entire state machinery has been mobilized to ensure that Mugabe wins on June 27.

Yet proponents of a GNU talk glibly about this notion oblivious to the mayhem that prevails in the country. To succeed national unity or coalition governments must be predicated on the bona fides of all participants. They must be premised on a sincere desire to promote national interest. Mugabe is no fool. He knows the composition of a GNU before the run-off must reflect the results of March 29.This means it must be led by Tsvangirai whose party won both parliamentary and presidential polls. Any other arrangement would be a negation of the will of the people and certainly not acceptable to the MDC.

A Tsvangirai led GNU is equally unacceptable to Mugabe. Having lost the first round Mugabe realised the risks inherent in a run-off. It is, however, a risk he is willing to take, given the unpalatable alternatives on offer. Mugabe is convinced that the current orgy of violence in rural areas coupled with crude propaganda will reverse the March 20 result. He certainly is not prepared to entertain the idea of a GNU, even with Tsvangirai as junior partner.

Tsvangirai and his party must just be destroyed. The MDC leader has met every significant African leader concerned with the Zimbabwean issue over the past nine years. Yet Mugabe has steadfastly refused to meet him. Given this reality how can the idea of a GNU be seriously canvassed?

Mugabe and the clique that surrounds him will not allow any sharing of power to happen even in transient form. There is talk of reasonable people in Zanu-PF prepared to walk the path of national unity and reconciliation. If they exist their views are irrelevant as they lack courage within structures in their party to forcibly express them. Cowardice and opportunism combine to make them impotent spectators as their party plunges Zimbabwe on the road to ruin.

There is talk of South Africa-s President Thabo Mbeki being in favour of a GNU in Zimbabwe in his role as SADC appointed mediator. Media speculation said as recently as last week Mbeki-s officials met with MDC and Zanu-PF representatives to convince them to forego the run off in favour of a GNU. Little credence should be given to such speculation. Mbeki wants Zanu-PF to remain the ruling party in Zimbabwe. He will support whatever strategy Mugabe believes can best advance his agenda. At present core to this strategy is winning the run-off by whatever means necessary.

Mbeki is fully aware of the murder, torture and rape sponsored by the state that has devastated lives in Zimbabwe-s rural areas. Credible reports say a fact-finding mission commissioned by Mbeki to look into allegations of state sponsored violence presented its report to him two weeks ago. Composed of retired generals of South Africa-s defence forces it reportedly confirmed reports of state-sponsored violence.

Characteristically, there is no mention of the report by Mbeki. Its findings were too unpalatable for his agenda to protect Mugabe from international censure. Not a murmur of protest about the murder, rape and torture of ordinary Africans Mbeki and his ilk claim to speak for. Instead of raising these issues of life and death of Africans he claims to love and represent, Mbeki found it more important to write to US President George Bush to leave Zimbabwe alone.

Those who believe a GNU or transitional authority is what Zimbabwe needs are well meaning. But they must be realistic. Zanu-PF is not interested in such a solution. It wants to bludgeon the MDC and its supporters to submission.

Commanders of the defence forces have repeatedly said they will not accept a Zanu-PF defeat. People are being murdered and rendered homeless by a regime that does not value their lives and well being. African leaders watch helplessly as Zimbabwe and its people are sacrificed at the altar of Zanu-PF hegemony.

Whenever Mbeki is cornered on his Zimbabwe policy he says it is up to the people of Zimbabwe to solve their problems. He may well be right. But he should not abuse his position as mediator to protect Mugabe-s regime. It is a cop-out for a man who has given support to Mugabe. He is however right to say ultimately it is up to Zimbabweans to resolve their problems.

They should do so by voting Mugabe out on June 27.

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