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A warning to Morgan Tsvangirai
David Blair, The Zimbabwe Times
June 11, 2008

http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=386

If Morgan Tsvangirai agrees to join President Robert Mugabe in a government of national unity, Zimbabwe-s recent history suggests that he will tread a short route to political oblivion.

Uncanny echoes of Mr Tsvangirai-s dilemma can be found in the events of two decades ago. Then Joshua Nkomo, a pillar of Zimbabwe-s struggle against white rule and the leader of the Zapu party, was a beleaguered opposition politician. Mr Mugabe was obsessed with crushing his opponents, just as he is today.

Mr Nkomo, who enjoyed enormous popularity among his minority Ndebele people, making him a significant political threat, faced violence on a scale that makes today-s campaign against the MDC look relatively restrained. Mr Mugabe unleashed a special army unit, the Fifth Brigade, to destroy Zapu-s support base by terrorizing and murdering the Ndebele. At least 8,000 were killed and tens of thousands abducted, tortured or assaulted between 1982 and 1987.

The Zapu leadership was rounded up and Mr Nkomo spent almost a year in exile in Britain. To end the bloodshed and restore his own political influence, Mr Nkomo began talks with the ruling Zanu-PF party. In December 1987, he signed the "Unity Accord" with Mr Mugabe and hailed the deal as a "new beginning".

In theory, Zapu and Zanu-PF merged to form a new party under a new leadership. There was one problem: the new party was called Zanu-PF and its leader was Robert Mugabe. The Unity Accord was a cruel sham. By signing this deal, Mr Nkomo had agreed to abolish Zapu and serve Mr Mugabe as a meek subordinate, thereby signing his own political death warrant. Mr Nkomo-s only consolation was that he became vice-president, living in a mansion and making money on the side - notably becoming one of Zimbabwe-s largest landowners. But his purely ceremonial functions left him powerless. He died in 1999, a forlorn, pathetic figure, whom Mr Mugabe had outsmarted at every turn.

This is the fate that awaits Mr Tsvangirai. When Zanu PF politicians talk of a coalition government, they have the Unity Accord in mind and are preparing the MDC leader for Mr Nkomo-s inglorious role. For his part, Mr Tsvangirai has insisted that the "mandate" he won in the presidential election-s first round must be respected. If there is a unity government, he must be president.

But South Africa may have other ideas. Following the example of Kenya, it may be suggested that Mr Mugabe stays as president with Mr Tsvangirai as prime minister. If Mr Tsvangirai allows himself to be inveigled into becoming Mr Mugabe-s prime minister, he will deserve Mr Nkomo-s fate.

*David Blair is the Diplomatic Editor of The Daily Telegraph (UK)

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