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MDC must prepare for worst case scenario
Alex T. Magaisa
May 30, 2008

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/magaisa80.18267.html

As the campaign for the June 27 presidential run-off Election shifts into high gear, and positive though the spirit may be, Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC ought to do what they have probably never done before: prepare and strategise for the worst case scenario.

To be sure, the election itself is unavoidable, lest Zanu PF secures the presidency on a silver platter. In the current context, Tsvangirai-s position is akin to that of a hunter running hard to escape the jaws of a lion whereupon after climbing the big tree, he comes face to face with a King Cobra. The hunter has to weigh and take risks in very limited space of time. This, Tsvangirai has done by choosing to contest knowing very well that even that route is long, rugged and at some point, may become impassable.

Given the events since the March 29 election, it looks increasingly likely that Mugabe and Zanu PF will do everything in their power to claim perhaps another of the proverbial cat-s nine lives.

For when you observe the pictures of the walking wounded; of the women, both young and old, brutalised in the most sacred and most soft parts of the anatomy; of the young men brutally slain in cold-blood; there is, plainly, little left to imagine what these fellow members of the human species authoring this orgy of violence can do. You do wonder whether there is heart somewhere in their shells that, one day, could be rehabilitated. At the end of the day, one is left with the grim feeling that these events are the harbinger of worse to come.

For Mugabe and Zanu PF, the election is no more than a ritual to confer legality to their retention of power. They simply have no intention of giving up power -- whatever the electorate thinks.

There are at least two worst case scenarios that Tsvangirai and the MDC are likely to face come June 27:

Rejection of a Tsvangirai victory
First, the less likely scenario is that Tsvangirai may be declared the winner of the election by the ZEC but that victory will not be accepted by Zanu PF. There is a real possibility that elements in Zanu PF will carry out their threat to thwart his bid even if he wins. The elaborate machinations following the March 29 election are indicative of their intentions. Zanu PF is unlikely to change this stance.

After March 29, the MDC made some high-level noise and carried out unprecedented diplomatic manoeuvres on the African circuit. It did not change the result but may have swayed significant African opinion. Mugabe prefers the portrayal of a law-abiding man and a coup against a declared winner would be more embarrassing. It would cause him to lose the sympathy of even the faithfully loyal President Thabo Mbeki. That is why this prospect of permitting a declaration of Tsvangirai as the winner and, therefore, necessitating a 'coup- is most unlikely.

Swift declaration of Mugabe victory
The second and more likely scenario is that Mugabe will be swiftly declared the winner of the June 27 election. Delaying the result is unlikely as it has been seen to be counterproductive post March 29. This time it will be a short, sharp and very swift execution conferring the presidency to Mugabe. Such an announcement will provide the cover of legality on Mugabe-s presidency, albeit a very controversial one, but that will not deter them.

This will be sufficient because legally, it will place Tsvangirai and the MDC on the back foot, making them the challengers to the process, a position Mugabe and Zanu PF have found hard work from since March 29. They will not want that again and a quick announcement as happened in Kenya-s recent elections will come in handy.

This scenario will shift the balance of advantage from Tsvangirai and the MDC to Mugabe and Zanu PF. It will be the MDC and Tsvangirai operating from a position of weakness, being the 'losing- candidate.

It is quite likely that in that situation, Zanu PF will be more open to the idea of a government of national unity ("GNU"), to which they have, so far, given mixed reactions They would rather do it as the senior partner than the junior guest invited to the MDC banquet.

The MDC will at that stage be faced with very hard choices but this could be eased by forward planning; by anticipating the fact that one or other worst case scenario is more likely to arise. Given what has happened so far, the MDC should be planning and strategising for how to handle a controversial 'defeat- on June 27.

Reality: A world of the crafty and ruthless
It is in this area of strategising in the face of patent risks where the MDC has appeared to stutter in the past. The MDC-s Achilles Heel has always been an almost infantile innocence in the face of a ruthless and crafty rival. The MDC appears to operate in anticipation of the best outcome but without accounting for the probability the worst possible outcome.

But its approach in dealings with Zanu PF is reflective of the society in which it exists. We are taught that democracy is for good men and women, who believe in peace, use peaceful methods, co-operate and do all the 'right- things. We live in a world in which we observe older and mature democracies where democratic values have been inculcated over time. What we are not taught, however, is that even in these older democracies, things were not always that straightforward. Democracy has come a long way and they have had and, in many ways, still have to deal with ruthless and crafty opponents in the Zanu PF mould.

We operate in anticipation of peace, fair-play and togetherness. What we are not taught is that, in fact, there are considerable levels of conflict at all levels of society - family, community, national and indeed international. We overlook the obvious reality that in society there are crafty and ruthless individuals who will employ every tool and method in the book to outdo us in various endeavours. We are taught to abhor conflict and violence but we are not taught to be prepared for the reality in which conflict is, in fact, prevalent. We are, therefore, often unprepared to deal with crafty and ruthless individuals and, indeed, situations of conflict.

This is the same predicament in which the MDC finds itself. It is fighting for democracy using 'democratic- means and tactics but is not prepared for the reality presented by the crafty opponent that it faces.

The net result is that on various occasions it has been caught off-guard; unprepared for the worst case scenario that usually arises from Zanu PF-s machinations. Zanu PF, being crafty as usual, knows this. The March 29 election was a test and it knows that once again the MDC was prepared for victory but not necessarily for defeat. The same lack of preparedness to deal with the worst case was evident after the 2002 Presidential election when indecisiveness derailed the MDC-s obvious momentum at the time.

Strategising for the worst case
As in everyday life, Tsvangirai and the MDC have the hard task of devising strategies to deal with an aggressive and crafty rival with a legendary streak of employing underhand tactics. They have to work not on the basis of anticipating victory but of the very real chance of the realisation of the worst case scenario.

It will not be easy but this is when the MDC needs to cast its net wider, draw on the collective wisdom of those that support its cause and put in place a highly rational yet emotionally balanced strategy to deal with the worst possible eventuality. It needs to do more than Zanu PF and open its doors for that collective wisdom to filter through.

*Alex Magaisa is based at Kent Law School, UK and can be contacted at wamagaisa@yahoo.co.uk

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