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Mugabe's revenge: Halting the violence in Zimbabwe
Jamal Jafari, Enough
May 12, 2008

http://www.enoughproject.org/reports/zimbabwe

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Zimbabwe is facing a deepening political crisis, marked by state-sponsored violence against opposition party supporters. Following the March 29 presidential and parliamentary elections, in which the opposition won control of parliament and won more votes in the presidential contest, the government unleashed a nationwide campaign of violence against opposition groups. At least 32 supporters of the Movement for Democratic Change, or MDC, have been killed, over 700 have sought medical treatment, over 6700 have been displaced, and over 1000 people have been arrested. All signs point to the situation worsening, with the government using violence and intimidation ahead of a runoff presidential election announced by the government.

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has never been so close to losing power, and appears willing to use all means available to physically beat his opponents into submission. As the international community considers its response to the complex crisis in Zimbabwe, its first order of business must be to stop the violence. The United States must diplomatically engage with African leaders to discuss a common way forward and put pressure on the regime to end the violence.

The United Nations Security Council must send a monitoring team to investigate the violence and make recommendations to the Council. The Security Council should also refer the case of Zimbabwe to the International Criminal Court to investigate crimes against humanity. The international community should further Zimbabwe-s diplomatic isolation through an arms ban and expanded targeted sanctions against top officials within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, or ZANU-PF.

In order to prevent an escalation of the violence and degeneration into state-sponsored mass atrocities—as have been seen before under Mugabe-s direction—the international community must also act to ensure that a legitimate, democratic government is seated in Zimbabwe. U.S. diplomats should coordinate with African leaders to develop a plan of incentives pressuring Mugabe to leave, and an alternative plan should he defy the democratic will of Zimbabwe and remain in power.

The March 2008 election: Plans gone awry
ZANU-PF-s losses in the March 29 elections were unexpected given that the ruling party-s history of vote-rigging made an opposition victory unlikely. In January of this year, Mugabe backed out of South African-mediated talks with the MDC and announced plans for a snap election just two months away—indicating he was confident in the ruling party-s chances. When elections were announced, the MDC was reeling from internal divisions that split the party and produced competing MDC candidates in many electoral districts.[1 [1]] After the MDC faction headed by Arthur Mutambara backed former ZANU-PF Finance Minister Simba Makoni for president, the opposition risked splitting the presidential vote as well. The government and the MDC also amended the Electoral Act ahead of the vote, which gave ZANU-PF huge advantages in electoral administration in exchange for what was then perceived as a relatively minor concession—announcing voting results at each poll site.

However, political violence, corruption, and gross mismanagement of the economy proved to be ZANU-PF-s undoing. Over the last three years many Zimbabweans resorted to the barter system after six-digit inflation left the Zimbabwe Dollar nearly worthless. Starvation hit rural areas while fuel shortages and dwindling imports of spare parts brought transportation to a standstill. Unemployment was conservatively placed at 80 percent, and even office workers in the capital ate one meal a day and walked hours to their jobs because they could not afford transportation. Yet ZANU-PF was so convinced of the MDC-s weakness that it called elections despite the crumbling state of affairs. This miscalculation was abundantly evident on polling day.

As election results were announced, an unexpected pattern became clear. ZANU-PF was not only losing in urban opposition strongholds, but was also trailing in rural areas, where it has traditionally drawn stronger support. Key party leaders lost their parliamentary seats. In a vote-rigging oversight, the periodic announcement of parliamentary results from local polling sites meant that ZANU-PF could not easily halt the vote count, nor could they manipulate the results from a central location. Before party leaders could control the situation, ZANU-PF lost Parliament by splitting the Senate and losing control of the House of Assembly. These losses were not only devastating because they signaled the weakness of the party; they also meant that ZANU-PF could no longer control a parliamentary election for a new president if Mugabe won but left office before the end of his term.

Independent estimates confirm that Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe in the presidential election by winning around 50 percent of the total vote count—the number above which a runoff election would be unnecessary.[2 [2]] The MDC will contest the runoff, though Tsvangirai maintains that the voters have spoken and he should be seated as president. Tsvangirai maintains that the voters have spoken and he should be seated as president. The United States should work closely with the the Southern African Development Community (the regional organization known as SADC) and mobilize international actors to verify the accuracy of the numbers, send in poll monitors, and ensure a free and fair runoff. Prospects for a legitimate Mugabe victory are remote. Key factors on the voters- minds, including the economy and the political stalemate, cannot be addressed in the short period leading up to a runoff. Further, former presidential candidate Simba Makoni is expected to endorse Tsvangirai in a move that could influence moderates in ZANU-PF. The MDC has clear advantages, but Mugabe will not leave office without a fight.

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