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How Mugabe can keep the world waiting
The Cape Argus (SA)
May 01, 2008

http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=18699

Why did the Zimbabwe Election Commission embark on a long and arduous recount of 23 constituencies when the results are the same as the original count? And can President Robert Mugabe still win a run-off election by rigging? These questions were bothering analysts this week despite the unexpected re-endorsement of the original count in the March 28 elections, sealing Zanu PFs defeat after 28 years in power. President Robert Mugabe can still change electoral laws to aid him in a run-off. Even though he is a candidate, he has emergency powers vested in the executive presidency and can, and does issue decrees. The first count delivered a narrow parliamentary majority to the Movement for Democratic Change. Zanu PF needed to win nine more parliamentary seats to overturn the MDC's victory. That it needed time to make good its deficit, was the general take on the recount. That some people did try to get into some ballot boxes is not in dispute. This was noted by some foreign observers at the recount and a senior policeman who saw boxes being brought into police headquarters in Harare on April 5. Boxes were opened and ballots tampered with, and the policeman reported this and gave details to the IFS.

Many analysts are now asking whether new election laws made it too difficult for Zanu PF to substantially rig the vote this time around after cheating the MDC out of victories in the general election of 2000 and the presidential poll of 2002. The difference, analysts say, was the now famous blue V11 form. These were filled out after verification of counting by candidates in all four polls: parliamentary, senate, local government and presidential. These were the ones put up outside each of about 9 000 polling stations. Polling agents were given duplicates, so in theory the MDC has a record of every vote cast from each one of the polling stations. The independent Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN) observers who were stationed at about 8 400 polling stations wrote the numbers down. That was why, says civic activist Mike Davies, the police raided MDC headquarters on Friday and removed its computers and election materials. They were looking for election data at ZESN's offices. As far as can be established police did not find any blue V11 forms at either the MDC or ZESN, although executives from both organisations are either in hiding or in the case of the MDC, in detention. Police raided ZESN again on Monday and took away many of its files. Its chairman Noel Kututwa handed himself over to police. Mike Davies is the chairman of the Combined Harare Residents Association which waged battles with Zanu PF over many years demanding municipal elections.

The published results of the parliamentary poll show that 2 388 381 people voted on March 29. That figure is not in dispute. People had to vote in the local government or municipal ward in which they were registered. There were 1 958 wards served by about 9 000 polling stations with an average of 265 people voting at each polling station for four elections in four different ballot boxes with four different numbered ballot papers. There were an average of 43 polling stations per constituency. For Zanu PF to rig the presidential poll and change even 1% it had to do so in many, many ballot boxes and be careful which ones it chose to alter. It couldn't alter results in some Harare constituencies nor most in Bulawayo and parts of Matabeleland as Mugabe has little or no support in those parts of the country. So the obvious place to change the votes was in rural areas where Mugabe does have genuine support for whatever reason. In some deep rural areas the MDC was unable to place polling agents for security reasons, or because they were chased away.

"They had to rig at the micro-level compared with previous polls where they just changed the figures at the macro level," Davies said. For example, he said, Zanu PF could not increase the number of votes cast to, say 2 000 per polling station as that would have "rung alarm bells." The voters' rolls for each polling station were inside the box, so that would have to be followed to be sure that each voter whose name was ruled out when he or she voted, was reflected in that box even if their democratic choice was changed. So they had to work with the number of votes they had and exchange them. To change the vote by just 1% they had to mark up 23 883 ballot papers for Mugabe and be sure they had done this using duplicates of ballot papers with the right serial numbers so it would check out again the master file, Davies said. It had to then distribute those votes within the boxes through 9 000 polling stations and remove 23 883 votes cast for MDC candidate Morgan Tsvangirai. So it needed 47 766 actions to put in new votes and take out original votes for each 1% for Mugabe.

"The drawn out announcement of initial results from the parliamentary election and then the extraordinary delay in announcing the presidential results indicates that they didn't have a clear strategy, they didn't know what to do and were casting around for ideas. The indications therefore are that they are rigging to allow for a run-off, not rigging for a win. This would seem to indicate that Tsvangirai got an outright victory," he said. Election laws say the winning presidential candidate has to have a clear majority of 50% plus one vote or face a run-off. He said if a run-off was declared there would be proof of displacement if fewer people turned out to vote than on March 29. "There were very low turnouts in Bulawayo and parts of Matabeleland. They would turn out in massive numbers if there was a real chance of getting rid of Mugabe, so any turnout lower than on March 29 would be an indication of how much violence has been going on." Davies and other election analysts say they believe Zanu PF is considering how to organise and pay for a run-off using different election styles. They could scrap ward-based elections and have people vote in 210 constituencies instead of 1 958 wards which would make rigging easier as vote counting would be so much higher. Or Zanu PF could suggest that people vote with identity documents and do away with the voters' roll as happened in Zimbabwe's independence election of 1980. That would make rigging very much easier as results can then be changed at the Harare command centre.

But this could assist the MDC if the diaspora returned home to vote. Voting with an ID would ease the situation for those internally displaced as they could vote wherever they have found refuge. Many urban dwellers, now too poor to travel to traditional rural homes to vote, would be able to vote in towns. The ZEC hired about 100 000 people for the March 29 elections and there are reports filtering in from some teachers that they have not been paid. Many are asking where the money will come from for a run-off, and whether the same people will be available to the commission. Scores of those hired for the elections have been locked up around the country, and there are growing suspicions that many more will be arrested in the next day or two. Davies was concerned yesterday that consolidated results of local government elections have still not been published by ZEC in accordance with electoral laws. The day after results are announced councillors should have been sworn in, he said. This would mean, as far as anyone knows at this stage, that several towns, Harare included, should have an MDC municipality.

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