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Defending the victory
April 10, 2008

The MDC scored a surprising (it ought not to have been, but was) victory in the March 29th 2008 parliamentary election, smashing ZANU PF-s parliamentary majority for the first time in its 28 years of dominance. However, being surprised and jubilant are the same factors, as any football commentator will tell you, which render a side most vulnerable when that team has just scored - Liverpool equalised within three minutes of Arsenal-s goal in the first leg of the 2008 Champions League quarter final. It is vital that the opposition remain completely focussed for any run off of the Presidential election, if that election, held concurrently with the parliamentary poll fails to produce a winner with an absolute majority. Failure to do so would mean that the triumph of the parliamentary vote will be lost.

The results for 207 constituencies (three will be determined by by-elections due to the death of party candidates after nomination) were as follows:

• MDC (Tsvangirai): 99 seats
• ZANU PF: 97 seats
• MDC (Mutambara): 10 seats
• Jonathan Moyo: 1 seat

Although the Tsvangirai MDC holding is only two seats ahead of ZANU PF, it is most likely that the two MDC factions will vote as one against legislation introduced by a ZANU PF executive, as may independent Jonathan Moyo, giving a working majority of 13 seats.

At first glance it may appear that this would render President Robert Mugabe-s position untenable if he did win the second round run off. Any legislation Mugabe attempted to introduce would be shot down by the MDC controlled legislature. Although the Assembly could not immediately repeal The Presidential Powers (Temporary Measures) Act which Mugabe has used to rule by decree (as all legislation requires Mugabe-s assent) Mugabe could not use his legislative powers under this legislation, as any decree made by him may effectively be vetoed by the House of Assembly eight days after its enactment - a power the ZANU PF led house declined ever to exercise. In any event, the Temporary Measures Act cannot be used for finance bills and although Mugabe need not convene the hostile Assembly for 180 days after the election, he will need to do so to have legislation approved to finance the new government. It appears that a constitutional stalemate will result.

However, Mugabe-s plan B is already evident. Senior ZANU PF official Chris Mutsvangwa and other ZANU PF apologists already have begun to start making noises about a government of national unity suggesting that the Mutambara MDC faction "the implacable enemy" of Tsvangirai will be the place to start. He is surely mistaken that the antipathy the Mutambara faction has for Tsvangirai exceeds that towards Mugabe, but the strategy is clear, and need not involve co-opting the Mutambara faction at all. Mugabe will be required to form a government and is given a broad power to do so. Having softened up the population with talk about reconciliation, and national unity he will move swiftly to appoint ministers from the House of Assembly as required.

And all he need he needs to do, under the guise of a unifying government, is to find 14 MDC MPs prepared to accept positions as Ministers within his bloated government. One would hope that none would be venal enough accept the lure, though they could comfortably hide such venality under the rhetoric of unity and reconciliation. If they do, the result would be that these 14 would vote with ZANU PF, the MDC-s control of the House of Assembly and triumph of March 29 would melt away like snow in the sun and Zimbabwe would be more or less back to where it was before the elections.

It is thus vital that having told Mugabe to go on the 29th March that the electorate now shouts. Unless the Tsvangirai-s supporters turn out in sufficient numbers, the intimidation and ballot fixing clearly necessary to win the presidential run off against the combined forces of the MDCs and Makoni, will steal that which the MDC has just so stunningly won.

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