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2008 harmonised elections - Index of articles
Mugabe's
last waltz, or playing for time?
Aubrey Matshiqi, Business Day
April 04, 2008
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/opinion.aspx?ID=BD4A740540
DID you hear that? It
was the sound of another African dictator biting the dust. Or is
it too early to celebrate the demise of Robert Mugabe? Last week
I wrote about his legendary middle finger and how in the past he
has used it in defiance of international opinion and the will of
the people of Zimbabwe.
I hope that he will not
use it this time to subvert what seems to have been an imperfect
but largely democratic electoral process. Despite the misplaced
confidence of the opposition in Mugabe's ability to rig the election,
the national assembly results suggest that Zanu (PF) and its strongman
have lost not only the support of Zimbabweans but also their capacity
to effect democratic reversals. Yet the opposition should not be
sanguine until the results of the presidential election are known.
If Wednesday's
front-page story in Mugabe's Herald is anything to go by, the Zimbabwean
authorities will announce a run-off election irrespective of whether
this is a reflection of the will of the Zimbabwean people or not.
Our understanding of why a run-off is likely to be the preferred
option of the Zimbabwean authorities depends on what we think has
been going on behind the scenes since polling stations closed on
Saturday. It is not unreasonable to surmise that by Monday, at least,
the results must have been known to key actors, such as Zanu (PF)
and Mugabe, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Morgan
Tsvangirai, the African Union (AU), Southern African Development
Community (SADC), the British and the Americans.
THIS partly explains
why the Zimbabwean Election Commission (ZEC) announced the results
at snail's pace . If we give the ZEC the benefit of the doubt, the
task of supervising four elections at the same time must have been
more than daunting. On the other hand, the lethargy of the election
authorities has given Mugabe the time and space to consider several
tactical options, since constitutional amendment 18 imposed serious
constraints on his ability to rig elections. The delay also gave
other actors the opportunity to consider options for an exit strategy
for Mugabe .
If I am correct, actors
such as SADC and the AU must have been working frantically to find
a compromise that excludes an outright win by Tsvangirai. The idea
behind such a strategy would be to sell a run-off election as a
compromise to both Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Since the Organisation
of African Unity's instincts are still very strong in the AU, the
primary objective would be to ensure that Mugabe emerges with as
little egg on his face as possible.
Tsvangirai's less-than-bullish
"presidential" demeanour at a media briefing on Tuesday
may be a sign of the pressure he is under to accept a run-off election,
despite his belief that he has trounced Mugabe.
The responses of Mugabe
and Tsvangirai will, among other things, be shaped by their respective
reading of the balance of forces within Zanu (PF) and the security
establishment. It must be clear to many within the ruling party
by now that they need to separate their political interests from
those of Mugabe or risk sinking with him.
If Tsvangirai has already
received clear messages of support from security chiefs in favour
of a run-off election, we might see the MDC lowering the volume
on their insistence that Tsvangirai's performance has exceeded the
constitutional requirement. Tsvangirai may accept a run-off in exchange
for assurances that Mugabe will not participate, or for assurances
from the security establishment that it will defend a run-off election
from the possibility of an undemocratic reversal of last week's
election result.
What should Mugabe do?
Well, he should step down and do it yesterday. If he tries to test
his rigging skills, the AU must grow a spine. Don't they have a
principle that forbids change through unconstitutional means? Mugabe
must not be allowed to stage a coup. I suspect, though, that his
army and party will not allow him. But I have been wrong before.
*Matshiqi is senior associate
political analyst at the Centre for Policy Studies
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