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This article participates on the following special index pages:
2008 harmonised elections - Index of articles
Analysis
of the election results so far
David Coltart
April 03, 2008
It is with considerable,
but not unreserved, optimism that I write today because the Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission (ZEC) has finally completed the announcement
of the House of Assembly results. The final tally is historic because
for the first time in 28 years Zanu PF has lost control of the House
of Assembly. Of the 210 seats contested Zanu PF won 97 seats, the
MDC (Tsvangirai) 99, the MDC (Mutambara) 10 and an independent 1.
The remaining 3 seats will require by elections because candidates
contesting those seats died (of natural causes) during the election.
All 3 are likely to be won by either the MDC (Tsvangirai) or ourselves,
the MDC (Mutambara).
The tortuous process
implemented by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) this week
to announce the results is unacceptable. Four days after the closure
of the polls we are nowhere near receiving all of the results. I
knew at 4am on Sunday morning, 9 hours after the polls had closed,
that I had won the Khumalo Senatorial seat. I was formally declared
a duly elected member of the Senate at 12.30pm Sunday by the Constituency
Elections Officer, in terms of the Electoral Act. I won by such
a wide majority (1944 votes) that there was never any prospect of
the result being challenged. Despite that, four days on my election
has still not been announced by the ZEC.
The same applies to the
all important Presidential race. The Herald curiously appeared to
have the results of this race yesterday because it announced confidently
that no candidate is likely to get the absolute majority required
to win. The MDC (Tsvangirai) responded by announcing its own result,
based on original polling station returns, giving Morgan Tsvangirai
an absolute majority of 50,3%. I cannot comment on how accurate
that is and note that Robyn Dixon writing in the LA Times this morning
says that the MDC (Tsvangirai) made an error in calculation and
that on their own figures Morgan Tsvangirai-s tally is less
than the 50% required.
However whether the final
tally in the Presidential race is 49% or 50,3% this is in fact irrelevant
because all that lower figure means is that we will have to wait
a further 3 weeks to see the end of Robert Mugabe-s rule.
It is obvious that all democrats must rally around the candidacy
of Morgan Tsvangirai in the run off and if we all do then Robert
Mugabe stands to be annihilated and indeed humiliated. Not only
will he face a single opponent but all the momentum is now with
the MDC (I use that word in the collective sense). Robert Mugabe
has already gerrymandered, has already given out all the taxpayers-
tractors and ploughs and has already tried to use food as weapon.
In other words he has nothing further to bribe or intimidate the
electorate with. They rejected these methods in the general election
and there is no doubt they will reject them even more forcefully
in the run off.
However I hope that there
will now be some sober reflection in the MDC (Tsvangirai). The sad
reality is that their failure to agree on a coalition has undermined
the opposition-s victory. In at least 8 House of Assembly
constituencies we handed victory to Zanu PF by dividing the vote.
In several others we only narrowly avoided doing the same again.
At the same time many of the opposition-s best MPs such as
Gibson Sibanda, Welshman Ncube, Paul Temba Nyathi, and Trudy Stevenson
lost and will not be in the new Parliament. We have lost their experience,
integrity and expertise - qualities we will sorely need as
we seek to rebuild Zimbabwe and to turn Parliament into a genuinely
democratic institution.
But most seriously in
the Presidential vote the failure to agree the coalition agreement,
so painstakingly negotiated by many of us, has opened up the possibility
of a rerun which would have been impossible had the 7% of voters
who voted for the MDC and the candidate it endorsed, Simba Makoni,
voted for Morgan Tsvangirai.
In short the MDC (Tsvangirai)
must acknowledge that it has enjoyed a pyrrhic victory in many respects.
All is not lost as we can still win the Presidential election in
the rerun. However it is now incumbent upon the MDC (Tsvangirai)
to build a broad and effective coalition. For this to be achieved
it must be prepared to bring into its team some of those who lost
in the House of Assembly election and who have so much to offer
Zimbabwe. It must also be prepared to accommodate some of the legitimate
policy concerns expressed by those of us in the MDC (Mutambara).
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