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Will Zimbabwe explode?
Olivia Ward, The Star (Canada)
April 02, 2008

http://www.thestar.com/News/World/article/408975

As Zimbabwe's strongman President Robert Mugabe clings to power amid widespread claims that the opposition won last Saturday's poll, the fate of the destitute country lies in the hands of its security forces.

Mugabe's friends and foes fear the official results could touch off explosive violence if he orders a crackdown on the opposition, or protesters rise up and clash with security forces.

The result of the back room debate among top security officials is now a life and death matter for Zimbabwe's future.

"The military has an enormous stake in the outcome," said Zimbabwe-born security expert Knox Chitiyo on the phone from London.

"Behind the scenes there are moderates who believe it's better for Mugabe to step down and avoid a bloodbath. And hardliners who are ready to crush the enemy once and for all."

Mugabe and military officials have said they would not accept a victory for the opposition, opening the way for a bloody crackdown and street protests. However, political analyst John Makumbe told Associated Press that he had learned from military sources they would respect the results of the elections.

But, says Chitiyo, who heads the Royal United Services Institute's Africa Program, "the country is highly militarized, with the military having a hand in everything from the grain marketing board to the banks. They are thinking not just about loyalty to Mugabe, but their own survival."

Members of the security forces have also benefited far more than ordinary Zimbabweans from the redistribution of formerly white-owned land, a plan that had disastrous results for the economy.

Reports of talks between Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the main opposition party, and a former army chief hinted that Mugabe might accept a deal to hand over power peacefully without prosecution for alleged crimes ranging from brutal repression to corruption and mismanagement that has bankrupted the once prosperous southern African nation.

But both Tsvangirai and the Zimbabwean government have denied that they were negotiating the resignation of Mugabe, a one-time independence hero who has ruled the country for 28 years.

In a New York Times opinion piece yesterday, South African journalist Heidi Holland - granted a rare interview with Mugabe - described the 84-year-old autocrat as a "precariously balanced figure" who is capable of sacrificing the welfare of the country for his own sense of righteousness.

Canadian Jim MacKinnon, who has visited Zimbabwe regularly for the past seven years, said that under Mugabe, violence has become predictable.

"In 2003, there was a women's organization that held a demonstration on Valentine's Day and handed out roses to the police. It was completely non-political, but they broke it up with tear gas."

MacKinnon, the southern Africa co-ordinator for Oxfam Canada, said that the presence of former ruling party minister Simba Makoni as a presidential candidate helped to keep violence in check during the campaign.

"Makoni had a certain amount of the security forces behind him, and it was very clear they were not behind Tsvangirai."

What would happen if Tsvangirai were declared winner is unsettling his supporters, as well as Mugabe's. While no official results have been issued on the presidential poll, Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, and a split-off opposition party, have a narrow lead over Mugabe's ZANU-PF in the parliamentary voting.

Before the election, police chief Augustin Chihuri said: "We will not allow any puppets to take charge," a reference to Britain, which some of Zimbabwe's pro-independence allies blame for plotting to overthrow Mugabe.

"At this point, our gains should never be reversed," Chihuri said.

For many of Zimbabwe's 12 million impoverished people, the gains are few and dwindling as inflation tops an unprecedented 100,000 per cent, and those with jobs have to choose between buying food or walking to work.

Zimbabwean security expert Martin Rupiya told the BBC that, although many in the security forces are loyal to Mugabe, 30 per cent or fewer are actually politicized. "The rest are suffering with the people."

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