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Rumours on road to Zimbabwe election
Dianna Games, Business Day
March 03, 2008

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/opinion.aspx?ID=BD4A718588

A helium balloon hoisted by Zimbabweans at the Beit Bridge border post to protest against President Robert Mugabe's recent expensive birthday bash in the border town read, "You've had your cake, now beat it".

Even as some lucky Zimbabweans left the challenges of 150000%-plus inflation behind for a few hours to tuck into the president's trillion-(Zim)-dollar feast, the harsh realities of life in the country still lurked beyond the decorated walls of the venue.

Bold statements by presidential candidates in the country, who began campaigning at the weekend for the March 29 poll, make it seem as if Zimbabweans may finally have a real chance at getting Mugabe to beat it. The excitement injected into the election process with the entry of former Zanu (PF) politburo member Simba Makoni, now an independent candidate is palpable despite the skepticism many feel about his ruling party origins.

Suddenly the moribund and tiresome process of a poll that, for nearly three decades, has been held exclusively to rubber-stamp successive terms for Mugabe, has become a national preoccupation.

This is reflected not just in a sudden increase in the number of people being registered to vote, but also in the number of conspiracy theories doing the rounds.

Zimbabweans have every right to be suspicious of unfolding events - as an electorate they have been bullied by the state for many years and been lied to and manipulated by the government's propaganda machine for as long as they can remember.

Makoni's candidacy has raised multiple questions that have yet to be answered. His support base is unclear, the extent of his backers even less so, although former home affairs minister Dumiso Dabengwa, also a member of the ruling politburo, made his support known at the weekend.

"If the general is behind this, let's see him," a Zimbabwean friend said over lunch last week, referring to Gen Solomon Mujuru, former head of the army and widely believed to be wanting to satisfy his own political ambition through a stalking horse. Mujuru is playing his cards close to his chest.

Presumably he, and other unspecified Zanu (PF) rebels who are said to back Makoni, are hedging their bets at this stage.

Zimbabwe newspapers are reporting that the police are after Mujuru for his alleged involvement with banker James Mushore, who has been charged with exchange control violations. This sounds like a typical Mugabe strategy to neutralize political opponents.

Another theory doing the rounds is that the Makoni candidacy is the product of an informal deal by some key members of the Southern African Development Community (including SA) as part of a negotiated solution. Makoni has never before exhibited the kind of boldness that requires one to step out of the embrace of a ruthless dictator and take him on. This suggests that he has more than one powerful backer - and who better than the president himself.

Some believe that the focus of mediation efforts that have publicly involved only the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have become a smokescreen for another behind-the-scenes deal - one more agreeable to Mugabe. This theory suggests that Makoni will win with the nod from Mugabe in return for immunity from prosecution. The old man will stand down and run things from behind the scenes.

A more likely scenario is that Mugabe will win and bring Makoni, as an independent, into a government of national unity (that will, however, exclude the MDC), thus restoring at least some of the credibility required to unlock international reconstruction funding under Makoni's direction. Yet other people (mostly those funding him) believe that this time around Morgan Tsvangirai will win the election, unencumbered by the breakaway faction of the party, which has thrown its weight behind Makoni.

Of course none of this might be true - or all of it, to differing degrees. But there is also another theory. If Mugabe really wants to win, he will. Everything else is wishful thinking.

*Games is director of Africa @ Work, a research and publishing company.

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