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Simba Makoni: A glimmer of hope?
Margaret Zondo, Africafiles
March 02, 2008

"To live is the rarest thing in the world, most people exist, that is all."
- Oscar Wilde

In recalling all the things that have happened in Zimbabwe since the formation of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), the famous Referendum and the land invasions, one realizes that there has not been much quality of life for the people of Zimbabwe. Theirs has been a life of hardships, disappointment, uncertainty and fear. The economy continues on a downward spiral wreaking havoc on every aspect of life. It does not make sense for the Ministry of Finance and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to persistently come up with magnificent plans for rescuing the economy because this is not going to happen without fundamental political changes. It is about time that Zimbabweans seriously let the leadership know, through the ballot box that it is their democratic right to demand a normal life. The nation received with guarded excitement and anticipation the announcement by the former Zimbabwe Finance Minister and Executive Secretary for the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Makoni that he had decided to be an Independent candidate among the four Presidential candidates in the March 29 2008 harmonized elections The events to follow will hopefully reflect the wishes of Zimbabweans who are capable of choosing their own leaders. Makoni caught many by surprise not because they doubt his ability but because this is not what is expected within the ranks of Zanu-PF. His bold move has helped open another chapter in the political history of Zimbabwe and things will never be the same again. All hope is not lost for Zimbabwe. In just under four weeks Zimbabweans will flock to the polls to make this decision about who they support as their next President.

There are numerous and urgent logistical issues that have not been resolved like the state of the voters- roll and the inadequate voter education. There are also genuine concerns about rigging and violence in the run-up to the elections and afterwards. Some quarters even think that we might end up like Kenya. The government departments are suffering from an acute shortage of staff and other resources so fixing the voters- roll to bring it to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and internationally accepted standards has been a real challenge. If anything, should the opposition lose this election it will most likely be because of poor administration and on technicalities.

Makoni-s entrance into the race has raised the level of energy in the electoral process; judging by the number of eligible voters that have been going to check whether or not their names appear on the voters- roll. Since Independence in 1980, Zimbabwe has been ruled by President Robert Gabriel Mugabe and he was confirmed by the Politburo as the Zanu PF sole candidate for this year-s Presidential elections. The recent political developments in Zimbabwe have been met by expressions of skepticism, awe, resentment, suspicion, excitement, relief, anxiety, anticipation and hope. It will be the most popular subject of discussion in the country-s many watering holes, the workplace, private homes and social gatherings. The Diaspora has been quick to react by demanding they be allowed to cast their vote. Thanks to the advancement in technology, it is easy to follow the unfolding events closely. The next few weeks will be critical for how future Zimbabwean politics will be shaped.

Yet again, others would rather view Makoni as an opportunist but one with the potential to muddy the political waters and force change. The 2008 election is not entirely about winning but giving democracy a chance. Makoni is familiar with the culture of Zanu PF and how it works and also with the public service. He understands what needs to be done and when. His interview on BBC a few nights ago reflected someone who has been doing a lot of thinking about what he is getting into and willing to take the risk. Zimbabweans are used to the good intentions of the opposition and hope that this time the rhetoric will be translated into tangible results. The optimists will view Makoni as a timely breath of fresh air.

Timing
Simba chose the perfect timing to make his intentions known. Zimbabwe is at the crossroads with the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) having failed to agree on a united front and thereby avoid splitting the opposition vote and having a better chance to dislodge the present government. There are reports of a divided Zanu PF and restlessness within all quarters of the political leadership. The economy is performing way below expectations and Zimbabweans are suffering from long term fatigue and helplessness. An inflation rate of over 100 000% is hard to imagine. Anything that offers to break the current monotony of suffering and hardships is welcome. If anything, voting for Makoni will be both a protest vote and an investment in the future generations. The media has had a field day and this time Zimbabwe is in the spotlight for different reasons. There have been too many false starts in Zimbabwe to warrant guarded optimism. The country is on its knees and every effort to resuscitate the economy or stimulate growth has been a futile exercise because the political leaders are reluctant to implement the much needed fundamental changes. In Makoni, there is a glimmer of hope even if it may not translate to votes or a change in leadership. The fact is there will be some discussion of the country-s future from a different perspective and some compromises. The ground has shifted but not enough to allow the opposition equal access to the tools they desperately need to launch an effective election campaign.

Constituency
Makoni does not have a well-established constituency so it will be difficult for him to mobilize support. Things will take a little longer to figure out but he will get there eventually. The election is only four weeks away and whereas Zanu-PF and MDC have long been preparing for the day, Makoni has not. We are not sure who these other significant personalities backing Makoni are and for how long they will continue to do so. We cannot therefore proclaim with absolute certainty whether or not he is adequately prepared for the difficult task ahead. It is no surprise that the war veterans did not waste any time in issuing a directive that he be punished for his actions. Makoni has inadvertently forced Zanu PF out of its usual comfort zone into uncharted waters. We wait and see how the situation unfolds. The lack of an established constituency maybe actually a good thing since the buzz word is change at whatever cost. Success in winning over supporters will largely depend on the level and manner of engagement of the public and how it appeals to their hopes and aspirations. Makoni is likely to have a huge following from among a cross-section of the population. The Diaspora would have welcomed an opportunity to cast their vote since they contribute about US300 million per month in remittances to Zimbabwe and this helps keep the country afloat. A campaign dubbed "No Vote No Forex" would fail to make an impact because of logistics and other humanitarian considerations so they wait helplessly as those remaining in the country do the voting for them. We trust that they will exercise this right with precision.

It may turn out that some of the members of both factions of MDC who have lost faith in the party may view Simba as a potential alternative. Whichever way it turns out, the opposition vote in Zimbabwe is dangerously fractured. Still, a former Zanu PF heavyweight challenging Mugabe is something that will be received with skepticism and suspicion amongst the staunch supporters of either the ruling party or the opposition. Simba can and will swiftly build a viable constituency. It may be a largely underground support reveled mostly by the vote. The reasoning behind this is two-fold; he is seeking approval and trust from Zimbabweans to lead the country on a different path and has the contemporary leadership skills to back it up. Since 1980, Zimbabwe has been ruled by a nationalist and populist government whose leadership was by default. Zimbabweans will have their first opportunity ever to have, regardless of who among the opposition forces wins the presidential race, a leader chosen on the basis of merit and competence. We hope that voting will be a smooth, peaceful and transparent process that allows the Zimbabwean people to speak, express their wishes through the ballot box and have those desires respected. Leadership has never mattered so much in Zimbabwean politics as it does in the 2008 Presidential and Parliamentary elections. Whoever is elected will have a difficult task ahead to win back the confidence and trust of the populace. A constituency built on solid ground with national interests as its priority is what Zimbabweans are looking for.

A new era
The decision by Makoni to challenge the current president is both courageous and naïve and that is precisely why it has revoked so much interest. His campaign message speaks of a dawn or new era in Zimbabwean present-day politics.

Makoni has a few options in building a viable constituency but it will take time to make the desired impact. If the experiences of those that have attempted to challenge the establishment from within is anything to go by, he needs to avoid some of the pitfalls experienced by Edgar Tekere and his party Zimbabwe Unity Movement (ZUM), Margaret Dongo standing as an Independent and lately Professor Jonathan Moyo also standing as an Independent. They have been perceived as minor distractions for Zanu PF. Moreover, the vision in all these cases was limited and incapable of forcing real change. Some have rightfully questioned why Makoni has not added his voice to other critics of the dreaded Murambatsvina, assault on the opposition, systematic arrests and harassment of real or perceived enemies and numerous other acts of repression. Dwelling on the past will not assist Zimbabwe as it attempts to make some huge changes. Nobody is perfect so all we can do is look to the future and learn from our mistakes. We have all failed each other in many ways. We have all contributed to the poor quality of governance by failing to criticize openly and consistently because of fear. There has been a persistent erosion of checks and balances that only an all-inclusive Constitution and institutions can correct. As citizens, we have inadvertently provided an blank cheque to abuse of the electorate by the ruling party thus creating antagonism and a country of contradictions. The Catholic Bishop-s Statement of 2007 pointed to a spiritual and moral crisis but also a crisis of governance and leadership. The Catholic Bishops also noted that there were Christians on both sides of political divide so whoever takes over the country-s leadership must exercise and encourage a culture of tolerance.

Possible allies and strategies
Zimbabwe is awash with well-organized civic and other grassroots organizations with good infrastructure and systems. One such organization is the Harare Combined Residents Association (CHRA). These grassroots organizations understand and appreciate the extent of the problem faced by the people. Zimbabweans are not looking for an articulate, intelligent well-spoken leader (although this is important) but for someone who can work with them, through them and get their hands dirty at fixing the mess that is our country. Rhetoric or childish insults will not put food on the table, light up our homes or enable the sick to access affordable and available health care. Makoni should therefore engage the grassroots mainly through existing well-organized institutions, a short cut to the voters because time is short. He has to gain the trust of Zimbabweans by displaying responsive and transformational leadership qualities and swiftly, develop policies to deal with the most immediate issues like food security. Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and the private sector in today-s world have a critical role to play in the policy-making processes of the state. Enhanced engagement of citizens, clients, consumers and communities is fast becoming the norm for many governments and both public and private organizations The Zimbabwean Diaspora has been on alert for a long time and built its own structure of an umbrella organization called The Global Zimbabwe Forum to represent all the Zimbabwe CSOs around the globe. A Diaspora Conference bringing together Zimbabweans was held in December 2007 in South Africa and was a huge success. This is just one example of the many well-established virtual networks throughout the world started by Zimbabweans who got tired of watching from a distance as their country fell apart. Their input among others will be useful. Lessons drawn from successful countries around the world can provide tangible strategies for the deliberate inclusion of public participation in policy-making, budgeting and other areas of concern.

Zanu-PF has already branded Makoni a traitor and an imperialist instrument to overthrow a legitimate government. The President likened him to a prostitute, a frog. The MDC has suffered considerably by being branded an emissary of the West or worse still, working hand-in-hand with the former colonial power, Great Britain. These are familiar outbursts by a regime that is used to considering the country as a personal property of a few chosen individuals. It has been an effective piece of propaganda for years and the image of MDC has suffered considerably in the process. How Makoni will be able to overcome this image bashing and remain focused on the real agenda for Zimbabwe is yet to be seen. He has already stated his strategy in a recent response to a question from a journalist that he was not motivated by negatives. Makoni-s former experience with SADC, his skills, knowledge and abilities and familiarity with Zanu PF's culture will come in handy but may not be enough to boost his attempt to secure the job of running the country. Before appealing to the International community for every little thing that goes wrong, it will be advisable for Makoni to consider a collaborative approach in working with various constituencies so as to dispel the notion that he is a funnel for ideas that originate from the West.

Leadership
There are many definitions of leadership and a good leader is judged by how much they can make a difference and identify with those that they lead. Makoni is considered by many that have worked with him as respectable, approachable, compassionate, a great listener and thinker, down to earth, humble, enthusiastic and a technocrat. Unfortunately, most of these are soft skills and may not, on their own, be good enough for the present day Zimbabwe where Zanu PF has barred other players from the political arena by hook or by crook. Zanu PF is a self-serving party out of touch with present day Zimbabwe and the international scene. They will not willingly accept a reformist like Makoni. The advantage with soft skills is that they assist in paving the way for ordinary folk to want to engage in important dialogue about issues that affect their lives. Makoni can build on his international image to secure much-needed support and on his history at the helm of SADC to solicit for ideas and accompaniment on what will be a difficult journey for Zimbabwe. He however lacks grassroots support in the rural areas. There is still time for him to mobilize the rural folk but he has no access to the state machinery to easily reach and placate potential voters. At the moment all he has is a good track record, a mix of the right leadership skills, the brain and good wishes of many Zimbabweans both within and outside the country. What Zimbabwe needs is an individual who does not perceive being elected to the position of president a right but privilege otherwise we will end up with another round of Zanu PF style of leadership where we are continually subjected to re-cycling of individuals on the basis of their participation in the liberation struggle. There is no more room for nationalist politics in Zimbabwe but politics that engage every citizen and in particular the youth. We need to take our strategic position once again on the global scene.

Leaders get things done through others and Mugabe is a typical example although his leadership style more often than not, induces fear rather than voluntary cooperation. It also depends largely on what things get done. A good leader must not be self-serving or encourage a culture of arrogance and impunity. Makoni will need more than his limited experience in Zanu PF to change the culture within the country that is built on tribal and other well-orchestrated divide and rule tactics. Zimbabweans understand perfectly that turning around the country will be an intricate task and yet accept that we need to go through these growing pains anyway. Any aspiring leader in Zimbabwe will face many barriers to entry. Zanu PF has a monopoly to the state machinery and in these times of scarcity, is not about to equitably share the cake. In the run-up to the 2008 elections, we read about maize meal and bicycle handouts to the hard-pressed citizens. Our country like many other African countries has been ruined by tribal and or racial politics and ruling elite that is keen on self-destruction. We have not been very successful at embracing diversity and capitalizing on its many benefits. Moreover, keeping the population uncertain and fearful seems to work well for the majority of African governments. Makoni has the advantage in that he knows how to navigate the political and economic systems has suffered humiliation at the hands of Zanu-PF and can identify with real and not imaginary issues facing the business sector and bureaucrats alike.

Prioritization of what needs to be done to begin the restoration of Zimbabwe will determine in the early stages what Zimbabweans can expect from a leader of Makoni-s caliber. He must now apply the theory into practice, choose a no nonsense team of capable men, women and youth to give hope to Zimbabweans. Nobody expects miracles because the country is in a mess.

* Zondo was leader in the Zimbabwean civil service and is now working in Canada. She visits often and keeps in close touch. She sees the emergence of a new candidate to face Mugabe as a move to more open democracy, regardless of who wins the immanent election.

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