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Taking on Mugabe
R.W. Johnson, Wall Street Journal
February 13, 2008

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120285343710763335.html

Robert Mugabe could be defeated at the polls next month. And by a member of his own ruling Zanu-PF, no less.
This week's entrance of former Finance Minister Simba Makoni into the Zimbabwean presidential race has suddenly created the extraordinary possibility that Robert Mugabe could be defeated at the polls next month. And by a member of his own ruling Zanu-PF, no less.

The 83-year-old Mugabe, who has been president since 1980, seemed until now unbeatable -- and not just because elections in Zimbabwe are rigged. He was bound to remain in office also because the two rival fractions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, led respectively by Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, had failed to agree on a united front for the March 29 elections.

Of course, challenging Mr. Mugabe's rule, particularly from within his own party, is not without risks. Joseph Chinotimba, deputy leader of the War Veterans' Association, a pro-Mugabe militia which the president uses to attack and intimidate opponents, said that "Traitors should know Zanu-PF has a history of dealing harshly with their kind." Which basically means being horribly tortured to death. That, at least, has been the fate of many thousands of Zimbabweans suspected of sympathy for parties threatening Mr. Mugabe's rule.

Meanwhile, Mr. Makoni has been summarily expelled from the Zanu-PF and come under attack from the pro-Mugabe press, which has denounced him as a stooge of "Anglo-American imperialists" who wants to turn Zimbabwe back into a colony. But the 57-year-old Makoni seems unperturbed. He has pointed out that he has been a longtime member of Zanu-PF and its Politburo till this week. He claims to have consulted widely within Zanu-PF before launching his candidacy, implying that he has large support in the ruling party.

Crucially, Mr. Makoni disagrees with Mr. Mugabe's assertion that Zimbabwe's economic meltdown is caused by the "imperialists." Mr. Makoni lays the blame squarely on the Mugabe government. "Of course we need change," says one of his backers, Wilfred Mhanda, a former Zanu guerrilla fighter who is part of Mr. Makoni's campaign team. "The old man wants to be in charge for the rest of his life, regardless of how much further the country falls. He does not care how much anyone suffers." Mr. Makoni himself promises to "bring a new dawn of democracy, accountability and integrity."

Mr. Mugabe seems flummoxed with this challenge and has canceled a recent Zanu-PF Politburo meeting. Normally, he would send the War Vets to beat, torture and kill the supporters of any would-be opponent. But the problem is that he doesn't know who exactly within Zanu-PF backs Mr. Makoni -- and setting the militia on his own party would, in any case, be asking for trouble.

What must further concern Mr. Mugabe is that he may not even be able to rely on the loyalty of the usual vote-riggers. In the past he secured his victories with the help of crooked voters' rolls, large-scale electoral fraud in the rural areas and Zanu-PF stalwarts, most of them military, who did all the counting. But rumors are flying thick and fast that Mr. Makoni has strong support within the police and military. The vote counting may no longer go the way he wants it.

Still, Mr. Mugabe has said that he will not allow Zimbabwe to be turned back into a colony. Given what his own press says of Mr. Makoni, let alone about the Movement for Democratic Change, this can only mean that he won't allow anyone but himself to win. But his intelligence organization has warned him to postpone the vote, saying he could lose.

And that's even though Mr. Makoni hardly fits the profile of the charismatic challenger. He had an undistinguished ministerial career, and his reputation as a technocrat is not even fully deserved. But that is not the point. As everyone knows, whoever succeeds Mr. Mugabe will immediately be offered aid by the EU, the U.S. and the international institutions in exchange for sweeping political reforms to turn around the economy.

If this were done under a Tsvangirai or Mutambara government, the corrupt and powerful interests grouped within Zanu-PF might all be swept away. Mr. Makoni, on the other hand, might be able to gain all the benefits of such a turnaround while leaving Zanu-PF in power and all those interests undisturbed. It is an alluring prospect for everyone in the party -- except Mr. Mugabe, of course.

While Mr. Tsvangirai has launched his campaign and seems determined to run, the much weaker Mutambara faction is clearly happy to back Mr. Makoni. And there is no doubt that South Africa's ruling African National Congress would also be delighted to see Mr. Makoni win: Its main objective is to keep its fellow liberation movement, Zanu-PF, in power and it has felt for some time that Mr. Mugabe was endangering that objective.

Facing possible defeat, Mr. Mugabe may decide to delay elections and use the intelligence service to ferret out who exactly within his party supports Mr. Makoni. Mr. Mugabe is already trying to get rid of Zanu-PF lawmakers whom he suspects of being Makoni supporters.

But this is an uncertain exercise: Many will swear undying loyalty to the president while quietly preparing to ditch him. The real question is what would Mr. Mugabe do if the election is held and, despite all his fraudulent efforts, Mr. Makoni is declared the winner? Would Mr. Mugabe simply try to annul the result? Or will Mr. Mugabe simply cancel the elections altogether to avoid defeat?

Whatever he decides to do, it seems clear that Mr. Mugabe will not just bow out. But all the alternatives to stay in power would amount to a virtual coup. So the decisive question is where the loyalties of the police and army will lie. More so then ever, they will be able to steer the country's future.

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