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Why 2008 elections are crucial
Promise Mkwananzi, ZINASU
February 13, 2008

I wish to state a few remarks about three key points which are emphasised in all devouted arguments for Simba Makoni, namely:policy,articulation, and ideolgy In terms of articulation, there is nothing out of this world that Simba has proven so far. He has only issued two public statements, the first one announcing his intention to stand as a presidential candidate, where he reaffirmed his loyalty to ZANU PF, which means that in terms of ideology and policy, we can view him in the same vein as the current ZANU PF to which he has unquestioned loyalty, which is basically supposed to be a socialist party backed by the alliance of workers and peasants and whose main thrust was the overthrow the racist settler regime and replace it with a government representative of the people in terms of their demographic configurations, that goal has been achived. What else is there for ZANU PF to do? This is what Simba Makoni is supposed to stand for until he begins to preach an explicitly different value system. There is a big problem if Simba wants to insist his loyalty to the present ZANU PF ideology and policies, it is common knowledge that ZANU did overthrow Smith and replaced him with a majority government, it is also true however that the suffering of the people (especially those perceived to be opposed to the PF rule) worsened. Simba has been part of and presided over some of the functions of this very same government that has led many to death, into exile, abject and chronic poverty, objects of ridicule among the community of nations.

In his second statement, he only insists that he is a ZANU PF Cadre and that he is not an agent of anyone, the rest is taken over by the raverantining Mbudzi. To the utter disappointment of every expectant Zimbabweans, he does roll out any concrete plan of action, he does present any evidence that shows his support from the other so called bigwigs-whom I have always agreed with Margaret Dongo that they behave like Mugabe`s wives. Nevertheless Simba insists he is not working alone.The ZANU PF Politburo, where the cracks are supposed to emerge from has endorsed his expulsion, Simba did not turn up for the meeting, which meeting begins to show that as much as Simba still dogmatically believes himself to be part of ZANU PF, the reality is the opposite of his belief .Think of yesteryear examples of Joshua Nkomo-a veteran liberation war and opposition leader, co-leader of the patriotic, and at one time President of ZAPU in whose executive Mugabe was a secretary, Edgar Tekere, Secretary general of ZANU PF, once very close to Mugabe, branched out in same manner as Makoni and failed to dislodge Mugabe despite the fact that, unlike Simba Makoni, he had a very strong party, Jonathan Moyo, backed by six Provincial Chaipersons all of whom were expelled along side Moyo, an astute political scientist who at one time single handedly run Zimbabwe on behalf of Mugabe, Moyo only managed a seat in Tsholotsho.Nothing more. Zvobgo, Kudzai Mbudzi, and one Mavhaire who was to be reinstated later at the benevolence of Mugabe. These examples demonstrate the cohesion within ZANU and the failure and cowardice of other bigwigs to join progress and ditch Mugabe.

Why we will support Tsvangirai
True, Morgan Tsvangrai has had his fair share of troubles, at one time promting me to be one of his fiecest critics while I was leader of students in Zimbabwe.The point which however remains is that among all opposition parties that have emerged since independence, including Simba, no other opposition has ever shaken the foundation of ZANU PF hegemony like the MDC. No other opposition has ever formed an alliance with the workers and the civics like the MDC.Today, Simba Makoni has the courage to challenge ZANU PF because he has learnt it from Morgan Tsvangirai that it is possible to challenge Mugabe.I will insist here that, presently, in the state of delipidation that the MDC is, no other party or person present any better hope for change than the MDC.The Authur Mutambara faction has consistently shown a tendency of readiness to step aside for anyone and everyone, there is undeniable evidence now that they stand for nothing:If you stand for nothing, you will fall for anything.Remember the old adage, it is difficult to imagine their existence post-election despite their percieved support in Matebeland which has never tested.Their desperation to step aside for anyone that comes along is evidence of their own assesment of their strengths and weakness and their realistic chances of forming the next government on their own, let alone to marshal a significant vote.. True, they must just step aside for anyone and allow Zimbabweans to decide their own fate. Makoni is problematic in the sense that, unless he unveils other serious ZANU PF Leaders backing him, apart from one Mbudzi and Ibbo Mandaza - I am afraid, his newly found political fortunes will fizzle into thin air. On the contrary, over the years Morgan Tsvangirai has demonstrated enormous dedication and resilience in whatever beliefs that he believes in, whether right or wrong. He has been the pillar and face opposition and the only hope for change in Zimbabwe-even as ZANU rigged/rigs and will rig future elections, History will testify that he did win these elections for the people of Zimbabwe, sadly the people chose not to claim their victory.

Post Election 2008
Mugabe will win the elections next month Comrades. What is the significance of the elections then, some might ask.My answer would be that the elections will serve firstly as a scientific political survey. Even though Mugabe will rig, the data from the elections will prove empirically how the support base of the Zimbabwean opposition is configured. Since 2005, a lot has happened, the main opposition has split into two, more political parties have come on board, Simba Makoni has defected and claims to have massive support.The elections will provide empirical evidence as to where real support lies. As a post phase strategy, the opposition will have to come to a round table, there will be no speculation as who commands what support and the negotiations will be guided by the support base demonstrated by each and every leader.This data will show who marshaled the biggest chunk of support to claim the top post. Forget education, thick CV etc. The voice of the people is the voice of God. Assume the people to be sovereign rationale beings that will choose the person they see best fitted to lead them. Remember that the second highest person is the person who will have won the elections. In short, the negotiations for a united front must be preceded by this empirical study (elections) so that we avoid urging others to pave way for Makoni simply because he has rebelled against ZANU PF for intentions which are not yet evidently above self aggrandizement.

Secondly the elections should be a mobilisation platform, to raise the political capital.Those enteirng the elections must make it clear to the electorate that the real victory is after the elections. Immediately after elections, when it will be clear who is who in the Zimbabwean political landscape-the opposition forces must immediately declare victory for the second best candidate (As its clear Bob the Boss will be number one).Meanwhile a people-s conference (whatever you call it) must be convened, in which the opposition parties civic society, workers, students and peasants will now form a united front based on the demand for a new constitution and a rerun of the elections. By then it will be clear who is who. If Arthur Mutambara scores the highest votes in the Presidential elections (assuming he does not step down to back someone else) then he will have to be the leader of the new united formation and if his party gets the highest number of seats in the house of assembly, senate and council, then he must get a share proportional to his share of popularity, the same should apply for all the other candidates. Exceptions will only be negotiated for civic society leaders who are known to lead mass-based movements like ZINASU, NCA, ZCTU,etc.

Way Forward
The way foward should definitely exclude negotiations of any sort, the courts or any other settlement, more importantly a government of national unity which Mugabe will try to offer on the basis of the botched SADC talks. This amalgamated opposition should embark on a single-effort delegitimation strategy of the Mugabe regime and call for a new constitution which Mugabe promised after the elections. A new constitution will allow for the opening up of the democratic spaces , if Mugabe refuses to grant the constitution, the delegitimation process must intensify through the confrontation of SADC, AU, on the basis of the failure by Mugabe to provide for a new constitution as he has promised he will do after the elections.An intensive grassroots connection initiative must be mantained to keep the people fully aware of what will be happening. Expecting to do such things through the publi media or under the protection of the state machinery will be naive-in other words, more strategies must devised to reach the people on top of the available options i.e. Studio 7, SW Radio, public gatherings and others. Lastly, a public declaration of the victory of the re-organised opposition and a beginning of the reclamation of the people`s victory will be possible if the opposition and civic groups can prove to the people a new lease of life based on the values that resonate with the people`s aspirations and backed by a spirit of oneness, selflessness and aimed towards one, old helpless common enemy-Robert Mugabe.

Victory is in sight.2008 must be the year of storm.

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