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In 2008: What ought to happen versus what will happen
Innocent Madawo, The Southern African
January 03, 2008

Read Madawo's response to comments made regarding this article

History of hope

Twenty years ago Zimbabwe saved itself from a five-year insurgency - the so-called Dissident Era - that threatened to plunge the country into a civil war of the proportions seen in neighbouring Mozambique and in Angola.

True nationalism and patriotism (if somewhat forced in some instances) prevailed over personal interests when in 1987, then Prime Minister, Robert Mugabe-s ruling Zanu (PF) party united with its bitter rival, the late Joshua Nkomo-s PF-Zapu, to form the existing and ruling United Zanu PF party that went on to form a government of national unity under Mugabe as president and Nkomo as co-vice president with the late Simon Muzenda.

That unity was by no means perfect but it served the most important purpose of uniting the nation and redirecting its socio-economic development to occupy a high perch in regional, continental and even world scales.

This was, of course, until the ill-conceived war veterans- compensation of 1997; the military misadventure in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1998 and the ill-fated land redistribution exercise of 2000 and beyond.

There are various reasons why the unity of 1987 was mooted and implemented but the ultimate realisation was that only Zimbabweans could rescue themselves from themselves.

If it hasn-t dawned already, it is my submission that the same realisation must guide the nation to invoke the same spirit of the late 1980s and apply it in 2008.

Election as a source of renewal

Zimbabwe is scheduled to hold joint presidential and parliamentary elections in March. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change has made a valid request - in my view - that the elections be postponed to allow for a number of provisions to be included. These include reconstituting the voter registration which has been in shambles for decades now.

It is common, for example; to find on the current register, names of dead people or citizens like me, who last voted in 2000 and have been out of the country since 2001. It has often been reported that such "ghost" or "absentee" registrants have voted, almost entirely for the ruling party.

The opposition also seeks an assurance that all eligible voters will be allowed to register and exercise their right in a free and fair election that is monitored by many international observers who are of undisputed repute. May I also add to this requirement that those outside the country be allowed to vote. There is an estimated 2-3 million of us, a number to large to ignore.

Only when reasonable accommodations have been made should the elections be held. If that happens in March or months later, it will be to the benefit of the country.

The results of elections held in hopefully accommodative - forget perfect - conditions, should be accepted by all. There will definitely be winners and losers but the challenge Zimbabwe faces now cannot be overcome by merely holding elections and letting winners set about correcting all the wrongs that have been made. This, I say with obvious knowledge that the likely winners - even in a near perfect situation - are Zanu PF and cannot, therefore, be expected to clean up their own mess.

Thus, much as the elections are needed for formality, a government of national unity would still be necessary because the country has been so polarized that only a united front will be able to rebuild the crumbling economy and convince the international community to rally behind a democratic Zimbabwe.

If this unity is achieved, then its leaders- first task is to launch a cleansing exercise to rid the country of its political and socio-economic rot and to spearhead a diplomatic offensive that should see the West join China and the rest of the East and Africa to form an investment and aid beeline to Zimbabwe before the end of 2008.

If Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki can accommodate each other in the ANC and Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga agree to put Kenyan national aspirations ahead of their personal egos, so should Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara.

In fact, the ongoing SADC-brokered talks between Zanu PF and MDC - which have already produced a number of positive amendments to the constitution - should ultimately result in a unity of "national" purpose.

The nightmare that is sad reality

If my submissions above were a dream I hope to come true, here is the nightmare that is a sad reality.

Elections will go on in March under conditions that favour Zanu PF, that is, the voter registration will not be updated, exiled Zimbabweans will not be allowed to vote and some observers will be barred, particularly those from the West.

The build up to the elections will be violent - as usual, if not worse this time around - with opposition supporters constituting a majority of victims. If both factions of the MDC boycott the elections, Zanu PF will help create one or two fly-by-night parties to legitimize the elections.

Results are forgone really. For President Mugabe and Zanu PF it will be a case of "as we were comrades". The opposition will dispute the results and its supporters will take to the streets.

There will be dead bodies, looting and destruction of property but do not expect this to reach the scale of the Kenyan violence, both in terms of human loss and days of rioting. The Zimbabwe security system is better prepared than the Kenyans. A combination of the Zimbabwe National Army, the Zimbabwe Republic Police, the Central Intelligence Organisation and the Zanu PF Youth National Service (Green Bombers) will gang up to thwart any street protests.

An escalation of violence, if it happens, will be perpetrated by the same security system in opposition strongholds.

Having consolidated its position as an "elected" government, Zanu PF will set about to do "business as usual" picking up it-s messing of the economy from wherever it would have left off before the elections.

Mugabe, buoyed by the election and the unwavering support by the rest of Africa and other anti-Western forces, will continue to preach his anti-Britain and America doctrine.

The world, whose attention is constantly distracted by "breaking news" in other parts of the world, will once again forget the country that once represented hope in an African continent desperate for recognition as a region leaving behind its dark past.

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