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Ahead of the game
Methuseli Moyo, BBC Focus on Africa
January - March 2008

Zimbabweans, fatigued and hungry, will go to the polls in the hope that the outcome may deliver them from ten years of suffering induced by political and economic turmoil. But the polls may bring them more misery too. So which will it be? A betting person would probably put money on the latter.

In power since independence from the UK 27 years ago and turning 84 weeks before the polls, veteran politician Robert Mugabe thinks he has dealt with token resistance in his ruling Zanu-PF party to him standing once more for president by appealing for party unity. Opposition has traditionally come from his deputy, Joyce Mujuru, but also from members opting for an Emmerson Mnangagwa candidacy - now a staunch Mugabe ally.

The outcome of the polls in March is not at all clear though - at least for now. First, Mugabe is in a difficult position in that he does not know for certain who his opponent or opponents will be. The main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has splintered into two factions, one led by its founding president, Morgan Tsvangirai, and the other by Arthur Mutambara, a fiery former student leader who is admired for his intelligence and bravery, but lacks the necessary political experience and national appeal for an election of this sort.

Tsvangirai, though, is hardly a more appealing choice. He seems to be a victim of self-destructive tendencies. First, he sparked the split in his party two years ago when he vetoed a vote to participate in the senatorial elections, causing some of his colleagues to label him a dictator. And last November he threw his faction into turmoil when he allegedly tried to force the election of the wife of his confidante, Ian Makone, to be president of the party-s women-s assembly in place of incumbent Lucia Matibenga.

The turmoil is perhaps a symptom of an organization built on shaky foundations. The MDC was formed from an array of forces in 1999 - students, trade unions, churches, farmers and businesses grasped at one uniting factor: the prospect of a victory against Mygabe and Zanu-PF in the 2000 general 2002 presidential elections. The MDC also got there in both instances. But it has also lost momentum, populated as it is by fatigued and harassed members.

Nonetheless, Mutambara may stick to his word and not contest for the presidency to pave way for a single candidate against Mugabe, a move that could galvanize the opposition and give it momentum just before the polls. In 2000, the MDC was only a few months old but it swept almost half of all contested parliamentary seats, and won about 40 percent of the presidential votes two years later. If a more credible opposition candidate than Tsvangirai was to emerge under a broader alliance, and if a free poll could be guaranteed with international observers in the country (rather than watching from the sidelines in South Africa), Mugabe and Zanu-PF would be history come March. But the opposition may have to work with what it has got. Despite his perceived weaknesses, Tsvangirai can still dislodge Mugabe and Zanu-PF if other opposition forces and civic society rally behind him. But there has been no obvious sign of this.

Perhaps a better "opposition" to Mugabe and Zanu-PF will be the economy. Besides the fact that there is little water in the cities, little power, bread, sugar, meat or maize meal and hardly any fuel, the economy is in freefall and inflation is hitting 15,000 percent annually - the highest in the world. Furthermore, over 80 percent of the population is unemployed. All these factors have raised the stakes against Mugabe, and the prospects of a victory against him are much brighter than six years ago. Indeed, critics have warned of a "surprise" for the veteran ex-guerilla leader to come.

A number of factors lend credibility to this. While Mugabe has traditionally been able to draw his support from the ethnic Shona peasants in the countryside, it is a fact that they have also been seriously affected by basic commodity shortages. Indeed, they feel the brunt even more than those in the cities - traditionally the seat of opposition supporters - because of distances from urban areas where products are sometimes available at exorbitant prices on the black market. Mugabe, though, has roped in traditional leaders in the countryside by offering them vehicles, electricity, and farm implements for their subjects, a move that is seen by critics as disguised vote buying. The so-called war veterans have been showing public support for Mugabe in return for goods such as cooking oil, peanut butter and cash. This particular bloc proved highly effective in "vote-gathering" for Zanu-PF in rural and peri-urban areas during the last election.

Even if Mugabe wins the polls, the international community - particularly Europe and the United Sates - will probably question their credibility because the man has been stereotyped in the international media as an election fraudster. But the group Mugabe refers to simply as "imperialists" may be onto something. In the run up to the polls there have been allegations that the voter-s roll is in a shambles, and that the voter registration exercise has deliberately not been publicized in opposition strongholds such as urban areas and the Matabeleland province, home to Zimbabwe-s Ndebele minority. There have also been allegations that the issuing of identity cards has been deliberately slowed down to prevent "born frees" (those born after independence in April 1980) from registering to vote. Mugabe fears that the younger generation, urbanites and Ndebeles are opposed to his rule and would swell the opposition vote.

A Mugabe win may be unsustainable though as it would mean more isolation for Zimbabwe and more misery for the population. Those in the urban areas may cause a governance problem for the president, which could only be defused by the military taking over the reins of government. But this could easily be the get-out-of-jail card Mugabe needs as the army top brass are his loyalists and can be relied upon for his protection even if he is deposed by a popular uprising.

Mugabe-s supporters, however, seem to believe that their man is a political magician, and will return to State House as he has always done. While at the time of going to press he has not enunciated his manifesto, it is most likely that he will continue with his controversial price-reduction scheme to combat runaway inflation, despite the fact that such a move is a double-edged sword. It has brought about acute shortages as industry has stopped production because of its lack of viability.

In a country where the political and economic climate seems to change by the hour, one thing for sure is that Mugabe seems to have exhausted his tricks and will not have it easy in March. Crucially, the electoral field has been partially leveled through negotiations led by the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) on electoral law reform, and there are prospects of more reforms of the country- security and press laws which, if implemented, may see the opposition freed to go about its campaign activities in the short time left before the election. That may ultimately spell doom for Zanu-PF which has used draconian laws and state apparatus to prevent the opposition from campaigning, and thus cut it off at the knee.

* Methuseli Moyo is a former editor-in-chief of Spot FM and former news editor of the Sunday News in Zimbabwe. Both are government-owned.

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