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Between a rock and a hard place
Marko Phiri
December 11, 2007

Discourse on the Zimbabwean crisis is evidently going to drag on even after the so-called watershed elections in 2008, but there are deepening signs that the resolution of the crisis will remain with us for more than a generation.

This issue is being raised here based on a series of postulations informed by the sincerity - or lack thereof - of the people on the forefront bearing the torch for all Zimbabweans in what ostensibly would be attempts to steer the country back into a modicum of political and economic normalcy.

On one hand we have a seemingly spirited opposition which however remains split and apparently plagued by irreconcilable differences, and on the other we have the Zanu PF Establishment which treats everybody else who does not agree with its tenets as an enemy therefore working against the interests of the whole nation.

Never mind that the people who raise these concerns are ordinary Zimbabweans who want their children to inherit what they themselves inherited before the country fell under the ownership of rabid nationalists.

First the "official" opposition. The Movement for Democratic Change remains accused by both independent observers, erstwhile civic group partners and its supports of having lost the plot a long time ago and foolishly - or unwittingly - giving concessions to men and women already known to treat the opposition as the ultimate enemy even during the Mbeki-mediated talks with the ante of the head-bashing of opposition activists reportedly being upped.

That the MDC worked with Zanu PF in pushing through the controversial constitutional amendments while its leadership and supporters continue being victims of the ruling party thuggery remains a moot point for many of its erstwhile loyalists. The split itself has been enough to see the opposition once touted as the country-s government-in-waiting losing much ground if we are to engage in some atavistic throwback and ponder on the scenes and mood when this opposition was born.

Throughout the year I have listened to young people saying they will not cast their vote next year citing the MDC split, yet it will be agreed that this was probably the country-s largest voting bloc when the MDC emerged on the political scene here. There is a stubborn myth with many "analysts" imagining for example that the Bulawayo MDC seats dominated by the Mutambara group will retain these seats. But true to the spirit of reality versus myth, there still remains no pointer to this, and this scepticism is informed by the determination of the Zanu PF political juggernaut and the voters themselves who have already decided to be apathetic even before the poll. Yet like any other ever flawed pre-election "scientific" opinion poll, anything can happen, though Zanu PF is still being tipped by the anti-Establishment pollsters to win.

One has to remember that the MDC split occurred after these seats were won by a united MDC thus it will be interesting to see who the people will vote for next year: Mutambara or Tsvangirayi? And this itself already points to the greatest worry of them all in the search for the resolution of the crisis and the emergence of a new political dispensation in Zimbabwe based on change coming through the ballot: a split vote which will ultimately spell victory for Zanu PF.

Everybody else concerned about the victory of democratic forces seems to be of the view that Zanu PF must be approached at the polls by a united front - even those obscure political groups who only emerge during elections say they must be included. However, while the men and women at the centre of the split insist that reconciling these differences will not occur on the level of some kindergarten utopia, what remains true here is that the sentiment is "Election 2008 is another victory for dictatorship." And again this will be a disputed victory based on that though everybody else is in agreement that Zanu PF has imposed regime change on itself, the forces expected to "fast-track" that remain trapped in ego indulgences at the expense of the people in dire need of liberation.

It is truly sad to hear people wallowing in dire poverty and ever chasing commodities publicly declaring that Zanu PF will win because - they contend - they will leave voting to Zanu PF loyalists. They simply will not vote. I have heard frustrated people having unkind words for the Mutambara faction for rocking the boat, and one just has to accept the tragedy of African politics where power is pursued at all costs without regard of the wishes of the people. And this applies not only to African ruling parties but the same opposition that claims it seeks to emancipate the people from years of tyranny.

While we have the Mutambara faction seemingly not raising any issues about human rights abuses running concurrently with the talks, the Tsvangirayi formation is on record saying it might well pull out of the talks if Zany PF does not stop the harassment and the intimidation of its leaders and supporters - among other issues. Honestly, what are their (both Tsvangirayi, Mutambara et al) supporters to make of all these talks, the very constituencies who these formations claim are negotiation on their behalf?

Then there is the ruling party itself with its sworn disregard for anything outside its jingoistic platitudes. Despite the talks, we still have the party-s first secretary engaging in the now pretty predictable limited diatribes about the opposition and the usual enemies B&B Unlimited (Brown and Bush), and one does get the feeling that because this venom is somewhat always directed at Morgan Tsvangirayi not Arthur Mutambara, the former trade unionist remains the recognised official political opposition in Zimbabwe. One should listen to all the conspiracies that abound concerning what gave birth to the split and you have a ringside insight into how the regime has dealt with opposition politics in Zimbabwe.

You hear people who should be public servants brazenly making political statements such that anyone else who emerges supporting the MDC is treated by these people as an enemy, and all this despite the on-going talks where everybody expects the ruling party to show a bit of restraint, at least in the spirit of being genuinely involved in the talks.

Questions are being asked by impoverished Zimbabweans what really these talks are all about when it is apparent that the ruling party is going about its business as usual despite making cosmetic commitments to the SADC initiative to solve the crisis.

As said in the opening of this contribution and the brief issues raised thereafter, in the long term, what remains apparent is that for Zimbabweans the crisis is ominously yet to drag on even after the elections next year: If Zanu PF wins, will the regime suddenly be people and investor-friendly and usher in a shift in the country-s economic fortunes, or its victory means worse things to come; if the MDC wins, which faction will it be, for none of them has shown any commitment to the people through approaching the struggle from a united front as seen in some African democracies despite their own limitations.

Remember there already is that scary prophecy from people who swear on their mothers- graves that they will never vote Zanu PF but say the ruling party will triumph, and not because it enjoys popular support but because the opposition remains emasculated, not because of lack of resources or some such issues, but nebulous and nefarious policy or ideological issues.

And this is what has pushed potential voters out of what would be participatory democracy. Even lay political analysts in the pub will tell you the Zimbabwean tragedy is of generational proportions as long as there is no sincerity in Zanu PF and there is a splintered opposition where there are individuals who in the fashion of Zanu PF think they own the struggle. Interestingly, there is a sentiment that dismisses the notion that the Zimbabwe crisis has not place for a so-called Third Force.

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