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Zimbabwe:
Challenges of a democratic transition
Crisford
Chogugudza
August 22, 2007
http://newzimbabwe.com/pages/opinion283.16827.html
ZIMBABWE, once a promising
'democracy' and beacon of hope in sub-Saharan Africa, has pathetically
slipped irretrievably into the troubled waters of an increasingly
fierce brutal dictatorship reminiscent of the Mobutu, Amin and Ceausescu
era.
The country is on the
brink of an unprecedented economic collapse and its revival under
the current administration is almost impossible to imagine. It would
appear there are elements in the Mugabe establishment who are determined
to bring the country further down to its knees at all costs and
in defiance of the brave and incessant calls for a democratic transition
in Zimbabwe.
The construction of personalism,
manipulation of nationalism and abuse of pan-Africanism has become
a key part of Zanu PF politics in recent times. Some have called
it ruthless survival politics in the face of perceived adversity
from the concerned West.
Zimbabweans continue
to risk death and are being embarrassed daily at the country's frontiers
as they attempt to flee the country in search of survival in neighbouring
countries. Unofficial statistics put the figure of Zimbabwean political
and economic refugees at more than 3 million in the entire Diaspora
with the majority being in South Africa.
The reality of life in
Zimbabwe today is that of gloom and despair. The truth is that democratic
transition through universal suffrage is increasingly becoming a
distant reality and this painful reality would have been inconceivable
if bonafide liberation heroes such as the late Joshua Nkomo, and
Dr Edison Zvobgo were alive.
What we see in Zimbabwe
today is a regime that is virtually on a war path with its own people.
Unofficial rumours say that the number of people disappearing in
the country under mysterious circumstances has increased sharply
as the regime struggles to deal with rising political dissent.
Of significant concern
is the status of civil liberties in Zimbabwe. Freedom of expression,
the most crucial of all human rights, continues to be criminalised
as President Mugabe recently signed another controversial piece
of legislation aimed at further curtailing freedom of expression
in Zimbabwe. Emails and telephone communication to and from Zimbabwe
are now subject to gagging courtesy of technology received from
China.
Threats, discrimination,
detention, and violence continue to affect freedom of expression
in the country. Freedom after speech, a concept originally coined
by Norway-based Zimbabwean laureate Chengerai Hove, is becoming
a luxury for many in Zimbabwe.
The most prominent members
of the opposition and their sympathisers have become subjects of
wanton arrest and harassment. Critics allege that the once revered
judicial system in the country has either been infiltrated or staffed
with Zanu PF 'apologists' whose judgements are either selective
or questionable in most instances.
The Mugabe regime has
by its brutal acts imposed a siege mentality amongst common people
by creating a culture of fear resulting in people becoming afraid
to speak, even though they may be no expressed laws against free
expression. Criticising Mugabe and Zanu PF today is akin to criticising
God and can be a dangerous act subject to lengthy detention or mysterious
disappearance in some cases.
Since Mugabe's loss of
the constitutional referendum in 2000, there has been a systematic
strangulation of all the means available for Zimbabweans to express
themselves. Any newspaper or journalist who dares publish the slightest
criticism of any hostile government policy is branded an enemy of
the state and ends up in detention and his paper without a licence.
The story of Daily News is a classic example.
The plain truth is that
a democratic transition can never take place where there is severe
curtailment of civil liberties. Tyranny and despotism have become
very rampant and profoundly entrenched in Zimbabwe, allowing the
establishment to easily deal with the few remaining brave intellectual
critics.
Today, there is a lot
being said about the possibility of free and fair elections in Zimbabwe.
It is inconceivable how this can be achieved in a state where there
is no press freedom or simple freedom of expression or association.
The opposition and anti establishment civil organisations are only
given national press coverage when they stage peaceful demonstrations
and get beaten up for expressing their democratic rights. The idea
here is being to portray them as law breakers.
The question to ask now
is what options exist for a successful transition in Zimbabwe, democratic
or otherwise?
A number of
suggestions have been put forward but there is virtually nobody
who has committed themselves to helping the people of Zimbabwe in
the same manner as Sudan's Darfur region and other troubles spots
in Africa. China and Russia are not doing Africa and Zimbabwe in
particular any favour by supporting and sustaining repressive autocratic
regimes. Zimbabwe, like Dafur, meets all the criteria for a full
UN Security Council discussion.
The number of people
dying of hunger, HIV/Aids and political violence in Zimbabwe put
together has reached catastrophic proportions, and if this does
not constitute a disaster, l wonder what in this world should be
described as such.
Bill Clinton, former
US President has publicly admitted that the world let down the people
of Rwanda during the genocide years believing that it was an African
problem. If the current trend in the way things are deteriorating
in Zimbabwe continues, Zimbabwe could be another Rwanda. It appears
nobody is paying attention to Zimbabwe now. It's discouraging to
note that sections of civil society in the UK think that stripping
Mugabe of his honorary doctorates is more important than pressuring
the Brown government to initiate meaningful multilateral dialogue
on the Zimbabwe crisis.
Some have invested immense
hopes in South African President Thabo Mbeki, but all what Mbeki
has managed to do is to raise Mugabe's political ego and buy time
for him. Critics have said that South Africa is actually benefiting
more from the Zimbabwean crisis than otherwise. It is true that
most of the foreign investment that would have been shared with
Zimbabwe is going their way. Some have questioned whether South
Africa's Thabo Mbeki is unable or unwilling to help solve the Zimbabwe
political mess. His failure to rein in Zanu PF in the failed inter-party
talks raises more eyebrows about his integrity and suitability as
a peace broker.
Given the economic leverage
South Africa enjoys over Zimbabwe, people fail to understand why
South Africa has allowed things to deteriorate to such desperate
levels unprecedented in Africa outside war zones. Some question
the wisdom of keeping quiet when a neighbour's house in on fire.
Such rhetoric as 'quiet diplomacy' will soon be consigned to the
annals of history as the crisis in Zimbabwe continues unabated.
The true nature of Thabo Mbeki's actions is subject to further scrutiny
and analysis by political pundits and historians.
The overly fancied SADC
initiative spearheaded by Thabo Mbeki is doomed to fail as long
as Mbeki shies away from the carrot and stick approach to Zimbabwe's
problem. Mugabe has very little respect for his fellow African leaders
and these leaders have blindly supported his dangerous and expensive
war of words against the West. SADC has neither the institutional
capacity nor the political will to resolve Zimbabwe's problems.
Mugabe sees
SADC as a mirror image of the defunct Frontline States (Dictators
Club) or a permanent ally that does not have the moral right to
oppose him for what ever reason. SADC once again failed to stamp
any authority on Mugabe and let alone acknowledge that the Zimbabwean
crisis exists. It is high time the more powerful members of the
International Community take the Zimbabwe crisis more seriously
to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe.
It is too late
to dwell on the origins of the crisis because there will never be
agreement as to who is significantly to blame. Time has come to
act on the political and humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe. It is
now time to draw up a UN Security Council plan for Zimbabwe similar
to Darfur, East Timor and Kosovo and the earlier this is done, the
better.
If it is impossible to
have consensus at the UN about how to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis,
options for individual countries such as the US and UK to act do
exist as long as their actions are proportionate to the scale of
the problem. However, most Zimbabweans prefer a peaceful transition
of power in Zimbabwe if that can be achieved.
The idea of
democratic transition in Zimbabwe through elections is a mere academic
expression. Elections do not work, have never worked and will not
work in Zimbabwe for as long as they are run by the same individuals
and institutions that have run previous ones. A new constitution
for next year's elections may not be conceivable now but major concessions
can still be made in terms of repealing major aspects of electoral
law i.e. Access
to Information and Personal Privacy Act (AIPPA), Public
Order and Security Act (POSA), constituency boundaries, voter
registration and election observation by credible international
observers including those from the UK, EU and US. Without the above
considerations, elections will come and go as usual; Mugabe will
still be there with a 'disputed mandate' and no 'legitimacy'.
The state of the opposition
in Zimbabwe is one of sadness, the opposition is unwittingly slowing
the process of change instead of speeding it up. They lack powerful,
strategic and charismatic leadership. This adds to the existing
woes of despair as hopes for a new democratic dispensation fade
everyday. A leadership renewal or re-branding in the opposition
hierarchy is manifestly becoming a reality.
The era of 'professional
leadership' is long gone, it's either the current leaders radically
change tactics or hand over to a new fresh pair of hands. In the
West, UK in particular, opposition leaders are not sacred cows they
come and go as the political pendulum changes. In Zimbabwe unfortunately
the opposition continues to receive a media honeymoon from the independent
papers even when it is clear they are blundering.
On a related issue Zimbabweans
need to be reminded that heroes are not necessarily leaders and
where there is a convergence of the two the better. The issue of
leadership change in the opposition should be desensitised and looked
at with a broad mind. Some will recall that heroes such as Joshua
Nkomo, Herbert Chitepo, Edison Zvobgo, Ndabaningi Sithole and Parirenyatwa
who pioneered the liberation struggle did not become presidents,
but their respective roles were instrumental and central to the
struggle for liberation.
The increasingly belligerent
twin MDC opposition leadership should be complementing not decimating
each other's political integrity. Going to elections as divided
will not earn them victory. If Morgan Tsvangirai lost 2002 elections
by 400 000 votes short from the 2002 presidential ballot, simple
arithmetic tells me that allowing Morgan Tsvangirai to go it alone
will be a dangerous gamble which could erode his chances of winning
elections. The man is inspired by huge attendances at political
rallies which are essentially made up of potential supporters most
of whom are not registered voters. It is unfortunate he is rapidly
loosing the plot.
As things stand now,
Morgan Tsvangirai may loose substantial Matabeleland and Midlands
votes to the rival smaller MDC Mutambara faction thereby assuring
Mugabe another controversial election victory. It appears Zimbabweans
will be bracing for another painful defeat and long, unwinnable
legal battles against Zanu PF. Some have predicted that mass demonstrations
such as the ones which brought down dictators such as Nicholai Ceausescu,
Suharto and the orange revolution in Ukraine will never happen in
Zimbabwe because of the brutality of the uniformed forces among
other factors.
Respected political analysts
such as former Zanu PF and government chief propagandist Prof Jonathan
Moyo, have predicted possibility of a coup detat in Zimbabwe as
the political situation continues to deteriorate. This prediction
is based on the assumption that the soldiers themselves are increasingly
becoming despondent hence the mass defections recently witnessed.
If Mugabe does not act fast enough to resolve the succession issue,
then a coup detat may be inevitable as conditions for this eventuality
are firming each day. On another issue, Mugabe would be making a
grotesque mistake by paying attention to the lunacy of the life
presidency mantra as demanded by his party worshipers and zealots.
The era of personality cult and life presidency is long gone.
The question to ask is,
will the people of Zimbabwe accept a coup detat, the answer is NO.
Coups detats have the tendency to distort the process of democratisation.
Above all, a coup detat would be a dangerous precedent for future
democratically elected governments. The process of transition from
militarisation to civilianisation of power could be a long and painful
one as has happened in Nigeria, Uganda, Ghana and other ruthless
African regimes where coup detats were fashionable until recently.
Lastly, cognisant of
the failures of previous initiatives, and the likely failure of
current initiatives to bring about change in Zimbabwe, the only
option left is to bring in the UN to make a decision on the future
of Zimbabwe before it's too late. Elections have failed to change
anything and Zanu PF has equally failed to use the contested mandate
and legitimacy they have to save the country from collapsing.
A UN intervention strategy
can start with forcing Zanu PF and the opposition to share power
under supervision from a neutral figure pending the holding of elections.
Alternatively, the UN and SADC in conjunction with local civil bodies
could be allowed to organise and supervise the 2008 elections and
hand over power to who ever wins. Zimbabwe is increasingly becoming
a time bomb waiting to explode unless the international community
shows real leadership to save the country.
There may not be any
diamonds, oil and uranium in Zimbabwe to warrant the urgent intervention
of the US, UK and EU but the reality is that the rot and collapse
continues in front of their eyes. A resurgent Zimbabwe will undoubtedly
be an asset to the West and beacon of stability and prosperity in
Southern Africa.
The West cannot afford
another Rwanda and Zimbabwe could as well be another Rwanda unfolding
if they fail to act decisively.
Crisford Chogugudza
is a Zimbabwean academic writing from London, UK. He can be contacted
on crisford02@yahoo.co.uk
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.
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