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Sinister show of force by Macho Mugabe
Hans Pienaar, The Cape Argus (SA)
August 19, 2007

http://allafrica.com/stories/200708200010.html

So you think Zimbabwe can't get much worse? Well, think again because there might be some surprises in store for the imploding country next year. There was something deeply alarming about a little vignette after the launch of the Southern African Development Community's Peace Brigade outside Lusaka on Friday. As the presidents' limousines arrived to cart them away to the SADC summit a Nissan Hardbody arrived from nowhere. It was brand new, and colour-coded in blood red. On it was mounted, in the style of Somali warlords in Mogadishu, a machine gun, manned by the meanest looking gunner in camouflage. Three more toughies emerged from the crowd of military dignitaries and jumped into the bakkie. It was their way of showing the top generals and defence officials from the rest of the region just how tough these guys were. No surprise then to hear they were the bodyguards of Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe, who had just been cheered warmly at the start of the SADC summit the day before. Maybe he was also sending the message - "I'm here to stay" - to his fellow presidents who were about to deliberate on his future.

Exactly 963 soldiers from 11 of the 14 SADC countries took part in the low-key, well-disciplined parade of the new SADC Brigade that contrasted sharply with Mugabe's macho gesture. But the force will be an odd creature from the outset. It has no troops, no headquarters, not even a depot for its equipment. Only five officers man a "planning element" in temporary offices in Gaborone, Botswana. Its strength is based on "pledges" - of troops, not money. This "pool of capabilities", as the chief of staff Brigadier General Malakia Nakanduugileh from Namibia calls it, will theoretically be available at short notice to be deployed by SADC's leaders of the day. But the SADC Brigade is also supposed to be part of the continent-wide African Standby Force, along with five other regional brigades.

Because the ASF is also somewhat of a virtual animal, the real marching orders will be given by SADC, and specifically its organ on politics, security and defence cooperation. Here is where it is getting interesting. The next chair will be Angola. It is ruled by a government that is just as close to a dictatorship as any on the continent. It has been stalling for months to announce the date of its next elections. Its human rights record is hugely unsavoury. It is also a close friend, along with Namibia, another organ member, of Zimbabwe. So, talking of scenarios, here's one: Zimbabwe goes to the polls in March after Mbeki's mediation has failed, which it shows all the signs of doing. Zimbabwe's population, hungry and tired of misrule, rise up when they discover that many are not even allowed to vote, since registration closed on Friday and most of them were unable to get to registration points.

How will the organ react? Among the groups of scenarios practised from the start of peacekeeping war games in the region in 1998, is how to deal with "splinter groups" instigating violence against the government of the day. Much emphasis is laid on humane treatment of belligerents, and how to involve civil society monitors was a key part of training during Operation Blue Crane, the first regional exercises at the SANDF's Lohatla battle school in the Northern Cape. All will depend on definitions, of "belligerents", political "splinter groups", and "insurgents", and the like. Whoever is the chair of the three-country organ, could have a major say in the decision whether to deploy the SADC Brigade. Mugabe's strategy has created a precedent that SADC comes to the defence of its imperilled fellow-leaders. However, the loose wording of the protection treaty might just save SA and some other reluctant SADC member states from rushing in to save Mugabe from his own people if Zimbabwe continues to spiral down. Political will is weak in the region; but Mugabe has shown it in his well-demonstrated desire to cling to power at all cost. That he is ready for another adventure in his long reign is shown by his pizzazz in taking along his Nissan toys when he goes to summits.

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