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There is no easy way out of Zimbabwe abyss
Gareth Evans, Business Daily Africa, Kenya
August 16, 2007

http://www.bdafrica.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2470&Itemid=5821

Zimbabwe is not fertile ground for optimists. The internal situation is catastrophic, with the country's economy in freefall and its people suffering grievously.

Economists are putting current inflation rates at 9,000 per cent or worse. Over 80 per cent of the population of some 12 million is living below the poverty line, and 80 per cent is unemployed.

The internal opposition is fragmented.

The opposition MDC is trying to coordinate a common front but remains split between two wings and both strategically and tactically less effective as a result. The ZANU-PF is internally divided with a numerically strong anti-Mugabe faction.

There are divisions in the security services, reflecting the stress felt by families in every walk of life as a result of the economic meltdown, but these have not been enough to give anyone confidence that anything resembling a velvet revolution could succeed.

And civil society organisations continue to struggle to exercise any influence at all on the course of events. External pressure remains ineffective.

International sanctions are shrugged off, with general economic sanctions hardly likely to make any difference - except to further immiserise the poor.South Africa continues to decline to use such leverage as it has, and the regional countries have - until very recently - contributed nothing but support for Mugabe's leadership.

All this means that there is little or no prospect of Mugabe being bludgeoned out of office in the foreseeable future - from below, within the country; from above, by the international community; or from the side - by any really coercive pressure from his regional neighbours.

The first piece of more heartening news is that none of the causes of Zimbabwe's current discontents seem to have roots so deep that the situation cannot be quickly turned round once some decent leadership is restored. Time is running out to create the minimum conditions necessary for reasonably legitimate elections in March 2008.

If the South African mediation is unable to achieve the outcomes necessary for free and fair elections, SADC can publicly state, before the elections, that the conditions are simply not in place for any possible outcome to be free and fair.

The second track in play is a behind the scenes exercise to try to negotiate a "soft landing" for Mugabe. A reasonably graceful exit combined with assurances that he would not face prosecution in any domestic or international court.

* Evans is the president of the International Crisis Group

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