Back to Index

Will Mugabe survive this time round?
Charles Mangongera, Zimbabwe Independent
August 10, 2007

http://allafrica.com/stories/200708100670.html

PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe's political career, both before and after Independence, has been shaped by risk-taking behaviour. But more so after Zimbabwe's Independence in 1980. Whether Mugabe's calculated risk-taking has been successful as a political strategy is another subject of debate.

There are those that will argue that he has been in power since 1980 and has managed to outwit his political opponents, both within and outside, and therefore his risk-taking behaviour has scored him successes. Yet others will argue that Mugabe has been a monumental failure in politics because he will go down in the annals of history as a liberation hero who went from respectable statesman to a power-thirsty dictator. That he has become an embarrassment not only to Zimbabweans but also to Africa as a whole.

I will highlight six political milestones or events in Mugabe's post-Independence political career that I think define his risk-taking behaviour.

In the early 80s, a gang of marauding North Korean-trained soldiers from the Fifth Brigade of Zimbabwe National Army went on a rampage, killing innocent and defenceless villagers in the Matabeleland and Midlands regions of Zimbabwe in what is now termed the Gukurahundi massacres. In an orgy of unprecedented violence, more than 20 000 people were massacred in cold blood. Their crime: belonging to the Ndebele tribe and attempting to jealously guard their zones of autonomy against Mugabe's quest for a totalitarian one-man political show.

Today, Mugabe has refused to own up and seek forgiveness for the killings, only grudgingly offering a very terse apology by calling that dark era in Zimbabwean history "a moment of madness". Those that spoke against the madness in the corridors of power in the West did so in hushed tones. Mugabe at the time was lauded as a great statesman. While his soldiers were busy slaying innocent men, women and children, Mugabe was juggling his life between having a cup of tea with the Queen at the palace or Lady Thatcher at No 10 Downing Street in London and receiving another honorary degree somewhere in Europe or the United States.

Whether Mugabe will live to face the consequences of his actions is between him and his God. The fact of the matter is he took a risk at the time and this was to mark the beginning of a political career characterised by calculated risk-taking behaviour.

In November 1997, faced with growing dissent from within his own ranks, Mugabe acceded to calls by veterans of the liberation struggle for them to be compensated for the sacrifices that they made to bring freedom. He fully understood the economic consequences of paying out a gratuity at a time when the economy was beginning to show signs of il-health.However, he was quick to figure out that he could buy loyalty among the war veterans if he paid them a gratuity. Against wise counsel from within and from outside, Mugabe agreed to pay each war veteran $50 000 in cash and a subsequent monthly stipend of $2 000.

At the time there were 50 000 registered war veterans but the number was to grow with the news of the cash bonanza. As the news filtered through to the financial markets, there was economic disaster. On Friday the 14th, now popularly referred to as the "Black Friday", the Zimbabwean dollar tumbled from $14 to the US down to $26. his was to mark its free fall and to date it has never relented. Mugabe soldiered on and the war veterans were to prove a vital cog in his 2000 election campaign, a campaign that was characterised by terror.Having secured the loyalty of the war veterans through the cash payment, Mugabe was faced with two major hurdles that threatened his political life. The economy was sinking deep into crisis.

There was mounting opposition to his rule and towards the end of 1999 a new formidable opposition political party, the MDC, emerged. Mugabe could see his political fortunes waning and he took another gamble. Land had always been an emotive issue in post-Independence political discourse. That there was a problem in the land ownership pattern was a fact that no sane Zimbabwean could deny. The contentious issue has always been how to address the problem. He instigated chaotic land seizures that saw thousands of commercial farmers being violently removed from their land.

Some paid the ultimate price for resisting the invasions. Mugabe urged his supporters to "strike fear in the heart of the white men". He had the instruments to do this at his disposal. The war veterans had been paid handsomely. Chenjerai Hunzvi and his gang became a dreaded force in many rural areas of Zimbabwe. Hunzvi became some kind of de facto commander-in-chief of the violent land seizures. This is the era that marked the beginning of Joseph Chinotimba's political career.

Mugabe's reasoning was that if he annihilated the white farming community, he would have succeeded in wiping the MDC off the political landscape in Zimbabwe. He parcelled out pieces of land to his supporters, most of whom were not committed to farming at all. To date the once vibrant agricultural sector has become a pale shadow of itself. Another risk taken.

At the time Mugabe was agonising over the ramifications of his generous package to the war veterans, he embarked on yet another costly political adventure. This time it was in a far off land. Laurent Kabila, the buffoon-like rebel leader had just ousted the tyrant Mobutu Sese Seko from power in the then Zaire and the latter had fled to exile in Morocco. Having captured political power and renamed the vast country the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kabila was now facing internal opposition after his allies accused him of failing to deliver on his promises. Uganda and Rwanda backed a rebel group that was now threatening to march on Kinshasa and remove Kabila from power.

How Mugabe got involved with Kabila still remains shrouded in mystery. Some mention the lure of diamonds as the bait that did the trick for the buffoon. In an operation code-named Operation Sovereign Legitimacy (OSLEG), Mugabe committed about 11 000 troops to fight on Kabila's side. By 2 000, the war had gobbled a whopping $15 billion of Zimbabwean taxpayers money. For three years thousands of Zimbabwean sons and daughters were butchered for a cause that no one has cared to explain to the nation.

The politics of risk-taking!

In May 2005 Mugabe embarked on yet another risky adventure, this time targeting hungry and poor urbanites in an operation that was code-named Murambatsvina. He had always been cynical of urbanites and at one time called them "totemless people". His anger was understandable. In all the elections that have been held since 2000, the opposition MDC has garnered landslide victories in most urban centres, particularly in the capital Harare.

In a brazen act of wanton disregard for humanity, Mugabe sent out his forces to mow down people's houses ostensibly to destroy what he called "illegal structures". Despite protests from his victims and human rights groups, Mugabe waged a war against his own people and to date more than 700 000 have been left homeless. A United Nations report has condemned the operation as a gross violation of people's rights. Mugabe has not said a word!

On June 27 2007, speaking at the occasion of the burial of the late Brigadier General Armstrong Paul Gunda at the National Heroes Acre, Mugabe spoke of new enemies that he said were out to remove him from power. A few days before the then United States Ambassador to Zimbabwe, Christopher Dell, had predicted that Mugabe would be out of power in six months time because of the rapidly declining economy.

Mugabe accused the business sector of hiking prices of basic commodities to starve the people so that they could revolt against him. In typical Mugabe fashion, he promised to deal with errant businesses. A few days later Mugabe launched another operation codenamed Operation Dzikisa Mutengo (Operation Reduce Prices). All retailers and service providers were ordered to reduce prices of commodities by 50%. The order resulted in a chaotic shopping frenzy where consumers rushed to snap up anything that they could lay their hands on. Businesses have refused to restock arguing they are operating at a loss. Mugabe has threatened to take over the industries that fail to operate accordingly and give them to those that are willing to produce.

But will Mugabe survive this time round? Only time will tell.

*Charles Mangongera is a human rights and development expert based in Harare.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP