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Zim: nothing + nothing = nothing
Jean-Jacques Cornish, Mail & Guardian (SA)
July 21, 2007

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=314537&area=/insight/insight__africa/

The mad arithmetic of a country on the brink of collapse is illustrated in two figures making the news in Zimbabwe. The first is a Z$20-billion suit against Pius Ncube, the outspoken Catholic bishop of Bulawayo, and the second the Z$15-million dowry demanded by desperate parents for a 15-year-old schoolgirl sold off into polygamy. It is clear from the government mouthpiece in Harare that Ncube-s embarrassment is delighting President Robert Mugabe and his henchmen. The Herald alleges the cleric, who argues there is a case for foreign intervention to topple Mugabe and offers to "go in front of blazing guns" to do the job himself, has had an adulterous affair with one of his aides. Grainy pictures the newspaper says are of the bishop have graced its front page. The allegedly cuckolded husband, Onesimus Sibanda, is reportedly suing Ncube for Z$20-billion. The 15-year-old bride sold into the harem of a man 30 years her senior is another victim of an economy with inflation roaring at 4 500% and heading - according to the departed US ambassador Chris Dell - towards more than a million by year-s end.

Operation Dzikiza, the cost-slashing exercise undertaken by Mugabe in his desperate bid to survive, is to be extended, says Zanu PF secretary for information Nathan Shamyarira. More than 3 000 shopkeepers have been arrested for failing to heed the government directive to halve prices. The White House has lashed this as "reckless and irresponsible", adding that "it will only add to inflation unemployment, food shortages and poverty". The US then tempered its anger by pouring another 47 400 tons of food into the country, bringing to 1,2-million the number of Zimbabweans it is feeding. Zimbabwe analyst at the Institute for Security Studies Chris Moroleng argues that by taking this into his rural heartland Mugabe has created a rod for his own back. "This is very, very dangerous. It is having the critical effect of speeding up dissent within the party," says Moroleng. "The knives are out. Mugabe has to watch his back. I-m seeing memos from senior government officials in Harare putting on record their opposition to the exercise. They are getting ready to jump ship. This could happen at the extraordinary conference of Zanu PF in December. People are lining up to perform regime change. They are saying that Mugabe should not run again in next year-s election or, at very least, that if he runs and wins, he should stand down very soon afterwards."

Mugabe-s previous excesses, like operation Gukurahundi - the massacre of 20 000 civilians in Matabeleland in his first years in power - and Operation Murambatsvina - the urban clean-up in 2005 that left 750 000 people homeless - were directed against his opposition. Police and government inspectors have poured into his rural heartland - the source of his political power - ensuring that businesses comply with the Dzikiza directive. Their victims include Zanu PF senator Siriro Majuro, who was found hoarding orange juice, toilet rolls and sugar in his loo. The effect of Dzikiza has been to provide consumers who beat the rush with goods at cut prices. But now they have to join their compatriots in dealing with empty shelves because retailers cannot afford to replenish supplies, as long as other fixed costs - such as wages and interest rates - are not cut. "Mugabe pretends he is protecting the people, but what he is doing is buying just a little more time, without regard for the long-term effects," says Moroleng. "It is like his ranting against colonialism and imperialism, trying to put an international dimension on what is essentially a domestic problem. It is all about buying time. It is about survival."

The South African mediation lifted the heavy veil of secrecy over its efforts to broker a deal between Mugabe and his main opposition - only to deny angrily reports that the octogenarian leader is snubbing the process. Foreign affairs spokesperson ­Ronnie Mamoepa insists that the members of the Zanu PF team, Patrick ­Chinamasa and Nicholas Goche, indicated in advance that they could not attend the talks in Pretoria earlier this month. This requires the question of why the Movement for Democratic Change delegation of Welshman Ncube and Tendai Biti was allowed to sit around for two days. The talks are on a knife edge, with Zanu PF demanding that the opposition cease to question the legitimacy of the government after two elections that were regarded by international observers as stolen. The MDC, in turn, is demanding the creation of an independent electoral commission before the next poll, replacing the election-steering team of Mugabe-s henchmen. It also wants the voters- roll scrapped because the existing system disenfranchises tens of thousands of voters. It is calling for voters to be able to cast their ballot on production of their identity cards.

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