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Of rumours and coups: putting the Harare coup attempt into perspective
Africa News (Netherlands)
June 19, 2007

http://www.africa-interactive.net/index.php?PageID=4919

Again, perhaps more so than ever before, the air in Harare is heavy with rumours of coup d-états and Mugabe-s soon-to-be downfall. Several months ago a story emerged about a stand-off in Mugabe-s office where ex-army officiado and Zanu PF bigwig Solomon Mujuru had barged in to plea for Mugabe-s retirement. A verbal scuffle ensued which saw Mujuru so enraged that he pulled out his handgun and pointed it at the old president-s head. Both security details present then pulled their guns on one and other and an uneasy tension must have followed. The affair is said to have ended in Mujuru walking away with his bodyguards. Now, only last week, a new story surfaced about a foiled attempt to overthrow Mugabe-s presidency by means of violence. Allegedly two military aircraft - reportedly the last two still capable of flight - were loaded with heavy bombs. In order to have sufficient fuel for their intended mission - even for the armed forces a scarcity these days - they had to fly to a military airstrip to refuel. Once there and refuelling soldiers who had not been made part of the plan noticed the unexpected aerial activity and investigated. They then arrested the pilots. Their plan had been to bomb Mugabe-s opulent Asian villa and the official presidential palace.

The story continues that one of the military men involved in the plot fled to the Zimbabwe embassy in France - plots in Africa always involve France in one way or the other - where he volunteered his information out of fear for more violence and bloodshed following a coup. The embassy then passed on the information to Harare where the planes were then apprehended and several mid ranking army personnel have now been arrested. It is said that the kingpin is still on the run and might have fled the country. What can we make of these stories? Are they to be believed or dismissed outright? In the volatile and fluid situation which is the crisis of Zimbabwe it is never too easy to verify whether a story is true or not. There are often no ways to double check. Specifically now that freedom of speech has been successfully battered into the ground and media hardly exists any more, save a few web-based papers abroad. If the stories aren-t true, it at the very least means that people are getting so fed up with their situation in Zimbabwe that their fantasies are running wild.

But now what if these stories are accurate? What does this mean? And what would it mean if at some point one of these violence-prone scenarios does really happen? If the air-raid-on-Mugabe story is true it would mean that local housing minister Emerson Mnangagwa - former trustee and right-hand man of Mugabe - has been carefully planning a coup d-état for a year or so with mid-ranking army officers. The snitch officer in Paris is said to have confessed that once Mugabe was overthrown they would put Emerson Mnangagwa in place. And this while Mnangagwa has of late been trying his outmost best to get close to Mugabe again after his failed attempt to mobilise Zanu PF support for his candidature for vice-president instead of Joyce Mujuru who was Mugabe-s then favourite (since then she has fallen out of grace due to her family-s open defiance of Mugabe). But perhaps there is another possibility. Perhaps the Zimbabwe presidency orchestrated the coup attempt in order to create another opportunity to clamp down on internal dissent. After all, Mugabe is more unpopular than ever before and internal Zanu PF disagreement with him is growing. He could now set an example of several military men in order to keep the security forces - for which money is running out - in line. In the same token he could take out one of the main contenders for power; Mnangagwa. Or is it Solomon Mujuru that he wants to take out? One could also argue that it would make good sense for Mujuru to have Mnangagwa implicated in a coup attempt against Mugabe in order to eliminate him politically as a contestant for highest office. After all, Mujuru can-t stand Mnangagwa it is said and would rather fight him than have him become the next president. And Mnangagwa had just offered Mugabe his hand in friendship and support, with Mugabe offering him the presidency in 2008.

Yes, Mugabe-s plan that should pre-empt a successful SADC mediated settelement is to stand in the 2008 elections as Zanu PF-s only candidate and then in the same year announce his retirement in order to give power to Mnangagwa who will be 'confirmed- in power by a majority - and recently enlarged - Zanu PF parliament. If he retires at all, of course. Whether true or not, whether fact or fabrication it is important to keep these possible scenarios in mind; the demise of African states and their slide into anarchy, violence and bloodshed have too often surprised outsiders.

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