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Zimbabwe as likely to end with a whimper as with a bang
William Saunderson-Meyer
May 26, 2007

http://allafrica.com/stories/200705260113.html

There is some buzz about a breakthrough in Zimbabwean politics. Writing in his influential newsletter, Eddie Cross - a well-informed political commentator, and balanced despite his ties with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change - talks about "surprising and significant developments" that might herald resolution of the crisis.

He refuses to elaborate in order not to jeopardise the progress being made towards an "African-crafted solution by powerful African leaders". While an imminent solution would be a fine thing, the optimism of Cross is probably premature.

It is part perhaps of the human condition that we somehow believe everything will come right, that the darkest hour is before dawn, and that when all appears lost to those besieged, the cavalry will miraculously save the day.

Zimbabwe has been in terminal decline for more than a decade. But somehow defying numerous predictions of its imminent demise and the exit of its despotic leader, President Robert Mugabe, it continues to stagger from crisis to crisis.

This week its inflation rate, already the worst in the world, moved from 2 217.4% to 3 713.9% a year. With hyperinflation of this nature, for the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank to pretend such exactitude about the statistics is patently risible - the unmassaged rate is probably in the region of 8 000%.

This is reflected in an official exchange rate of US$1 to Zim$250, but a black market rate of Zim$38 000. The currency decline is exacerbated by the decision of Zimbabweans to put their money in real assets as fast as possible, rather than hold local cash which becomes worthless literally overnight.

More than 80% of the population is unemployed and 70% is underfed. Yet as the Zimbabwean government plans to set up technical colleges to produce half a million ox-drawn carts and ploughs to rescue the collapsed agriculture sector, Mugabe still routinely draws ovations from his fellow African leaders.

It is probably foolhardy to forecast that something must snap soon. Failing states do not necessarily judder to a halt. It is possible for a formerly successful modern economy to spiral into economic social coma without the catharsis of a dramatic denouement which would herald a new beginning.

Instead, like some primordial creature, national life for the general public contracts into a scarred and nicked carapace, barely surviving but still breathing. There are a number of such African states, about which no one gives a stuff.

In contrast, there are many who do care about Zimbabwe. Not because of a racist attachment to the fate of a handful of white farmers, as some in the African National Congress like to claim. They care because Zimbabwe is different from other basket case states in that it had already crawled from the primal swamp and evolved into a functioning, democratic, modern economy.

We care because there is more pathos in watching a person get up and being struck down, than observing a life form that is not going to progress beyond slithering. We care because Zimbabweans are neighbours and made sacrifices on our behalf during the liberation struggle.

It is a matter, too, of self-interest. Our fate is bound up with theirs. Exiled Zimbabweans and refugees already must make up one of the biggest ethnic groups in South Africa. For those who daily lose their jobs as the Zimbabwean economy contracts, illegal immigration to South Africa is the remaining hope.

It is a bitter irony that the Mugabe regime is propped up by the very people who most loathe him - the three to four million Zimbabweans who have fled to South Africa and the United Kingdom. The monthly hard-currency remittances they make to feed their families back home are crucial to the Zimbabwean economy.

What a dilemma: to feed your family and nurture Mugabe or to starve your loved ones in the hope that the monster exits sooner than they do.

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