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Robert Mugabe: down but not yet out
Gugulethu Moyo
March 22, 2007

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=302717&area=/insight/insight__comment_and_analysis/

Almost every tribe on Earth has a metaphor for the law of unintended consequences. The Oromo people of Ethiopia say, "After you have thrown the spear, you cannot take hold of its end." At the beginning of March, with trademark arrogance, Robert Mugabe’s regime launched a physical assault on the Zimbabwean opposition. The unintended consequences of these actions have been sweeping, and are widely considered to herald the ruin of the protagonist.

As I write, there is a growing feeling that the old fox has finally overreached. The world over, "tipping point" vies with "endgame" as the editorial writer’s shorthand of choice to describe the precipitous outcome of the spate of state-orchestrated violence against the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). In many newsrooms Mugabe’s political obituary lies in draft form, with analysts convinced that an opposition radicalised by brutal repression, in combination with the global fallout from the president’s hubristic railings at his critics, will have fatal consequences.

If Mugabe had set out to pierce the heart of a weakened MDC, he has achieved the opposite, lionising its leaders and causing near-universal sympathy for its cause. MDC leaders, particularly Morgan Tsvangirai, appeared dignified and heroic in their response to abominable thuggery and provocation. Mugabe was, as ever, the hooligan. "The West can go hang," he said, adding later: "We will bash them again."

As a consequence, a tipping point was reached among African leaders. For the first time ever, the African Union expressed concern about the sticky problem in Zimbabwe and made a public call for what it termed "constructive dialogue" -- a prescription that seems, at the moment, wildly impractical, given the recalcitrant stance exhibited by the government. But it does seem certain that Mugabe can no longer expect much succour from Africa’s leaders. His latest actions have raised the political costs of solidarity beyond the level at which they can comfortably be absorbed.

Alas, African leaders’ generally timid response to Zanu-PF left much to be desired. AU chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare left it until he had been heckled in London before admitting that he was embarrassed by Mugabe’s behaviour. Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete stood shoulder to shoulder with Mugabe while the latter paraded his infinite capacity for crudeness across the globe. These sorts of responses help to reinforce intractable stereotypes of Africa as the place of the uncivilised -- yet another unintended consequence of recent events.

The fallout reached as far as New York City, where the South African government seized the opportunity presented by this situation to expose, for the second time, its flawed policy on the appropriateness of human rights debates within the United Nations Security Council. In response to the United Kingdom’s call for a briefing to the council on Zimbabwe, United Nations ambassador Dumisani Khumalo said: "It’s not a matter of threatening international peace and security, so to bring it to this council is surprising."

As for Mugabe, could the world punditocracy be right? Will recent events prove to be the tipping point, bringing a speedy end to his vicious rule? I fear that this prediction may prove wrong in the short term. It seems more plausible that, unless the world demonstrates a greater willingness to hold Mugabe accountable for this criminal suppression of dissent, this may just be the tipping point towards a new level of state-sponsored violence against the opposition.

Key opposition leaders are physically incapacitated as a consequence of the ferocious beatings that they received. It will be some time before they can get out of their wheelchairs and march forward in the struggle for democracy. Many others, deterred by this spectacular evidence of the murderous impulses of Zanu-PF, will abandon their activism. The agents of oppression will be emboldened by success. To this end, Mugabe may yet achieve his original intent.

And, as Zimbabwe hurtles towards dystopia and the world speculates about the future, an anecdote springs to mind. It comes from a colleague who met Mugabe in 2001, during an International Bar Association investigation of the beginnings of the country’s rule-of-law crisis. Mugabe is said to have remarked that he is like Jesus Christ. "When people say I am dead, I rise again," he told the visitors during a meeting at State House.

The question to ask then may be: Will Robert Mugabe rise again?

*Gugulethu Moyo is a lawyer with the International Bar Association. The views expressed are her own

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