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Can
China save Zimbabwe-s economy?
John Blessing Karumbidza
Extracted from Pambazuka News 282
December 11, 2006
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/comment/38849
The 'look
east- policy of Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe is well
documented. But the deeper implications of Zimbabwe-s relationship
with China are less well understood. Whether the relationship turns
out to be a win-win one will depend much on how effectively Zimbabwe
can build institutional and bureaucratic capacity to harness Chinese
funds and investment for the benefit of the country, writes John
Blessing Karumbidza, who doubts whether this will be the case, raising
questions as to whether Mugabe is simply replacing Western colonialism
with Chinese imperialism.
'We have
turned east where the sun rises, and given our backs to the west,
where the sun sets- - Robert Mugabe on the occasion
of the celebration of 25 years of Zimbabwean independence, May 2005.
That China is
a rising global economic player of note in Africa is well established.
China-s interest in Africa is part of a calculated plan and
policy to 'go global-. Africa offers a strategic training
ground and opportunity for Chinese capital. In an address to the
Nigerian Senate in 2005, the Chinese President described China-Africa
relations as 'win-win economic cooperation-. This paper
explores what will become of the renewed relationship between China
and Zimbabwe, or more appropriately, the Zimbabwe African National
Union, Patriotic Front (ZANU PF).
It is arguable
that whether the relationship becomes what the Chinese President
described as a 'win-win- relationship is not entirely
dependent on China, rather on whether Zimbabwe has the institutional
and bureaucratic capacity to turn Chinese funds and investment to
benefit the country. There are reasonable doubts about the possibility
of widespread and long term economic benefits to Zimbabwe. Temporary
benefits so far include the political preservation of Mugabe reign
and personal aggrandizement through corruption and kickbacks by
his ZANU PF cronies flowing from Chinese investment.
On the whole,
it would not be fair to blame the Chinese for acting to further
their interests. It is incumbent upon the government of Zimbabwe
and its people (and any other African country for that matter) to
put in place a programme and strategy for chanelling funds and direct
investment in a way that contributes to growth of its own economy.
Questions about
Chinese financing and business involvement in African development
programmes include: Are they based on an equal partnership? Are
African governments able to negotiate terms of interaction without
'pawning- their countries and submitting their people
to exploitation?
There is growing
concern that China disregards human rights and democracy. It has
a reputation for the abuse of workers- rights, intolerance
of political opposition; and dislikes a free press. In the name
of non-interference, China justifies doing business with pariah
states and dictators - which also means that civil society
and the citizenry cannot hold them accountable for flaunting environmental
and labour laws.
It is important
to note however that this Chinese 'non-interference-
policy cannot be permanent. The Chinese are well aware of this themselves.
Where deals are signed with unpopular dictatorial regimes that could
later be revised by a new government, it becomes necessary for the
Chinese to protect such regimes. This explains their arming of the
ZANU PF government in Zimbabwe. For example, China funded Zimbabwe-s
acquisition of military-strength radio jamming equipment to block
opposition broadcasts ahead of the 2005 elections.
Liberation
ties paying off for China
In
seeking to gain a hold on African resources and opportunities for
sale of Chinese goods, China should be wary of losing political
capital and 'credibility- it acquired from supporting
African liberation struggles through conniving with dictatorial
regimes. Prior to the present day questionable expansion, China
had no burden of historical guilt in Africa, unlike the global North.
China therefore gives credence to the likes of Mugabe when it claims
to be protecting African sovereignty. Whereas British Prime Minister
Tony Blair and Bono see Africa as a 'scar on everyone-s
conscience-, still troubled by their historical guilt of the
slave and colonial era, the Chinese see Africa as a business opportunity.
The earlier
'ideological' phase of Chinese-African relations was part of a global
strategy which by the mid 1970s saw some 15,000 doctors and over
10,000 agricultural engineers from China serving all over the Third
World. It is common knowledge that many African countries exploited
the cold war and the bi-polar world system by claiming to be socialist
to gain assistance during liberation and after independence, going
first to the West, then the East for development aid.
By 1977 Chinese
trade with Africa reached a record US$817,000,000. The new orientation
found institutional expression in the first China-Africa Co-operation
Forum held in Beijing in 2000 - a mechanism to promote diplomatic
relations, trade and investment between China and African countries.
In the same year, China-Africa trade passed $10bn for first time.
By 2003 it reached US$18.5bn. By 2004, nearly 700 Chinese companies
were operating in 49 African countries. According to some estimates
US$30 billion will change between Chinese and African hands this
year. More recent Chinese estimates claim that it is already approaching
US$40billion.
China is using
the UN-s five-point proposal to 'assist- developing
countries accelerate development, including: 'Granting zero-tariff
treatment for some exports from the least developed countries, increasing
aid to the heavily-indebted poor countries and least developed countries
and cancelling debts contracted by them, providing concessional
loans and effective medicine for treating malaria, and training
professionals.-
These steps
will increase China-s access to the raw materials, energy
and food resources it requires to sustain growth as well as feed
its population. Observers have pointed to the fact that 'more
recently China's policy has shifted from cold war ideology to a
more classical pursuit of economic self-interest in the form of
access to raw materials, markets and spheres of influence through
investment, trade and military assistance - to the point where China
can be suspected of pursuing the goals of any classical imperialist-.
Moreover, the heavy militarisation of the Zimbabwean government
through Chinese loans and technology raises suspicions of China-s
global ambitions to develop strategic military bases in Africa.
A closer
look at the nature and character of Chinese investment in Zimbabwe
For
Mugabe, who sees democracy and development as mutually exclusive,
the fact that China has been able to raise 400 million of its people
out of poverty over two decades, without being subjected to democratic
elections and a free press serves as a useful example. Mugabe cites
the present world order as a source of conflict and war, and calls
for a more positive alternative order.
China was ZANU
PF-s main supporter in the 1970s in the war against colonial
rule. After independence, Zimbabwe declared itself Marxist-Leninist
and announced the intention to reorganise society along socialist
lines while courting Western aid and and the IMF.
Since 1980,
Zimbabwe has revoked the liberation era ties with China to maintain
low profile diplomatic ties, which are now upgraded to a development
partnership. As a result of the lack of conditionalities on Chinese
loans and funding, Chinese loans in the 1980s went into white elephant
projects, such as the construction of the National Stadium.
By the end of
2004, Chinese investments in Zimbabwe were estimated at US$600m.
To service the increasing Chinese investment and the 9000 Chinese
believed to be living and working in Zimbabwe a bi-weekly flight
between Harare and Beijing was launched.. Another US$600m was pledged
at the June 2005 Asia Summit; and separate deals between Chinese
state and private firms were signed with various Zimbabwean corporations.
Renewed and increased China-Zimbabwe relations brought about now
familiar circumstances: a Zimbabwean state now considered by the
global North as a pariah state; an unprecedented economic slump;
unemployment above 75 per cent, inflation heading towards 2000 per
cent;, and shortages of consumer goods, most importantly fuel.
European and
American travel sanctions, the lack of any IMF rating, coupled with
the ANC in South Africa-s conditions of political and economic
'normalisation- have taken their toll. In August 2005
therefore, snubbing the efforts of Thabo Mbeki, Mugabe turned to
China for funding to 'revive the economy through increased
agricultural production-. This led to Chinese promises for
increased economic cooperation in many areas of the economy and
an immediate US$200,000,000 to finance agricultural production and
three MA-60 passenger planes.
Mugabe fought
the 2005 elections on the argument that Zimbabwe must not become
a colony again. But it is questionable whether he has not in fact
simply replaced Western colonialism with Chinese imperialism. Having
ceded control of strategic state firms and massive Chinese takeovers,
including of railways, the electricity supply, Air Zimbabwe and
Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation makes 'win-win- economic
cooperation between China and Zimbabwe appears doubtful. Given that
Zimbabwe has no comparative advantage over China in any sector,
this opening up of the economy is most likely to benefit the Chinese
perhaps even at the expense of Zimbabweans.
Zimbabwe lacks
the institutional and strategic infrastructure to effect requisite
economic transformation, and will have difficulty putting Chinese
development loans to good use. The failure to revive the agriculture
sector since the 2000 land seizures is a major concern.
It is not surprising
therefore that the Chinese signed a contract to farm 386 square
miles of land when millions of Zimbabweans are still landless. Recent
land seizures saw most of the productive land fall into the hands
of the elite, while the rural poor remain mostly landless. The Reserve
Bank governor-s monetary policy statement emphasised the need
for the agriculture sector to pull its weight in the economic turnaround
of the country encouraging the new landowners (mostly urban 'telephone
farmers-) that 'the battle cry is for all those who
hold land to view it as an effective means of economic emancipation
rather than a status symbol-.
Beyond the rhetoric
of 'the land being the economy and the economy the land-
there is no apparent strategy for the necessary transformation required
for agriculture to release its potential for the economic turnaround
needed in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe cannot even benefit from the Chinese
Maoist blueprint for rural economic transformation. The joint Chinese
ventures in Zimbabwean agriculture amount to nothing more than land
renting and typical agri-business relations that turn the land holders
and their workers to labour tenants and subject them to exploitation.
There is additional
fear that the takeover of strategic national firms by the Chinese
companies is a security threat and can be seen as loss of national
sovereignty. Most sinister of all is that the Chinese authorities
must know that Zimbabwe is more than likely to default on payment
of bills; and wishes precisely this, in order to obtain a tighter
grip on Zimbabwean assets.
It would be
naïve to think that China is motivated by the need to salvage
the Zimbabwean economy from its economic abyss; indeed even the
government does not itself believe this. It is simply a venture
to save political face. For the Chinese, the investment in Zimbabwe
is nothing different from Chinese ventures elsewhere on the continent.
The current arrangements, simply allows Mugabe to keep the illusion
of victory over the West; and enable his cronies in the army, police,
government and business to partner with the Chinese in further exploitation
of the masses. As in the 1980s, the poor people will be told to
tie their stomachs and pull up their socks, and that a revolution
is not for 'cry babies-. For as long as Mugabe reigns
over the abyss, the rhetoric of imperialist demons fighting against
Zimbabwe will continue to suffice.
In the context
of a politicized security system, silenced media and partial judiciary,
the Chinese will drain the Zimbabwean economy and future generations
will pay for it.
Anti-Chinese
xenophobia: Attitudes towards the Chinese in Zimbabwe
When
confronted with reports of crime against Chinese nationals (numbering
not more than 10 000), Zimbabwe established a Chinese desk at the
central police station in Harare. Mugabe has also appointed a Minister
for Chinese affairs.
Already, the
police officers, the University of Zimbabwe and schools have been
asked to offer classes in Mandarin (soon after losing their love
of French). Reacting to the new requirement to learn Mandarin, Washington
Katema, ZINASU
president, snubbed the move as a case of the 'madness of the
Mugabe regime scaling new heights- and as a political gimmick
to lure the Chinese into the country to bankroll the bankrupt regime.
These excesses by Mugabe-s regime are likely to fuel xenophobia
against the Chinese. Many reports of crime and abuse of women and
children, rape and violent crimes against Zimbabwean nationals are
yet to receive such a high profile response.
The economic
background to the anti-Chinese sentiments is that Zimbabweans are
horrified at the prospect of a permanent take-over of strategic
state companies in what is generally considered a desperate move
to perpetuate the tenure of ZANU PF. Trade unionists are worried
that companies are being forced to close having lost their market
to cheaper goods imported directly from China, and about the abuse
of workers. The Chinese managers are alleged to have a negative
attitude towards local people and massive dislike for trade unionists.
At will they are known to 'forget- to understand English
as a means to avoid dialogue with anyone critical of their actions.
The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU)
was quoted as saying that a Chinese steel company operating in Willowvale
in Harare has unacceptable pollution levels but the government treats
them with kid gloves.
Conclusion
In
the next half a century if all African countries adopted the shift
from colonial languages that create a barrier to cultural unity,
China could replace them with one language spoken across the continent.
Maybe then, a 'United States of Africa- - under
Chinese 'prefectship- - may become possible. After
all, China would gain more advantages from a united Africa than
from a balkanised continent. China is in Africa to pursue expansion,
consistent with its search for global dominance, and to avoid being
out-competed by the US. It therefore requires resources, raw materials,
and markets, and space for its surplus population.
As far as Africa
is concerned however, as long as poverty remains at the centre of
the conflicts and crises in Africa, and there is no African reconstruction
and development strategy, conceived and funded from local resources,
the giant panda will carry on from where the colonialists and imperialists
left.
Mugabe-s
looking 'east where the sun rises-, expecting Chinese
loans to develop the beleaguered economy remains a fantasy as long
as his politics and economics are wrong. Meantime, with Mugabe fixated
on Chinese promises, the people of Zimbabwe, especially the middle
class that decide to leave the country at the whims of Mugabe, and
Chinese take over, in the pursuit of temporary respite in the diaspora,
only have themselves to blame.
•
John (Blessing) Karumbidza is an economic historian and researcher
in rural sociology based at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South
Africa. He is a public intellectual seeking to promote the position
that 'another Afrika is possible-.
•
This is a shortened version of an article by John (Blessing) Karumbidza.
The full version, including references, will be available in a forthcoming
book to be published in January by Fahamu and called 'African
perspectives on China in Africa-. The full articles will also
be made available as .PDF files on the Pambazuka News website.
•
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