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An
eerie passivity on trampled ground
Dr
Mzukisi Qobo
September 04, 2006
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A264060
THERE seems to be no end in sight to
Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown. Ordinary citizens bear the brunt of
President Robert Mugabe’s misguided policies and corruption by the
political elites. The latest tinkering with monetary policy, evidenced
by introduction of the new currency notes, has so far not helped.
This latest cosmetic exercise — where the Reserve Bank simply struck
three zeros from the old currency — is designed to mask the incompetence
of the political elite, and postpone the inevitable collapse of
the state in Zimbabwe.
If anything, the recent monetary policy
changes have further complicated the lives of ordinary citizens
in that country, and compounded the economic burdens of the poor.
Challenges related to fuel shortages, power cuts, unproductive land,
poor crop yields, and rising prices of basic commodities have become
the norm.
Zimbabwe’s economic crisis is generalised
and, with the exception of the ruling elite and its cronies, affects
everyone. Indeed, it boggles the mind that the institutional sinews
of the country are still functioning. In the public service, the
situation of teachers, policemen and nurses worsens daily as the
purchasing power of their meagre earnings erodes rapidly in the
face of triple-digit inflation. Earning between Z$30000 (R350)
and Z$60000 (R700) a month, they can barely take care of themselves,
and are increasingly finding it difficult to send remittances to
their extended families in the rural areas, where poverty is most
severe.
Worse, the formal economy is no longer
functioning. The informal economy and the black market have become
the de facto institutions that people — including the elite — trust,
and through which almost everyone facilitates their economic transactions
reliably. This includes, inter alia, transactions in currency, fuels
and other basic commodities. For example, when government announced
price controls on fuel two weeks ago, depots simply refused to sell
at government gazetted rates of Z$320- Z$335 a litre, opting to
divert their fuel to the parallel market where they could fetch
upwards of Z$800 or more. Amid all of this, it beggars belief that
the ruling Zanu (PF) would lavish $141m on the acquisition of another
six K-8 Chinese fighter jets.
As things stand, there is a danger
that more sophisticated forms of crime could emerge. People’s circumstances
are becoming more desperate by the day. Thus, cross-border spillover
effects such as the military-style shoot-out that took place in
Johannesburg recently — between police and a criminal gang that
included former Zimbabwean security force personnel — could become
a norm.
How far must things go before a serious
grassroots backlash emerges? And what would be the critical point
before there is an emergence of a revolutionary tide in the mould
of Georgia’s Rose Revolution and the Ukraine’s Orange Revolution?
What distinguished these revolutions was their extensive grassroots
campaigning and co-ordination among the opposition. Their initiatives
were built strongly around a well-organised and politically coherent
civil society movement that included the poor, the students and
the workers. Undoubtedly, external support helped to reinforce these
efforts, but the ultimate success came from within. It was the determination,
courage, self-sacrifice and resilience of citizens in these countries
they that won their freedom.
You will be hard put to find this in
Zimbabwe. There is no sense of a simmering revolution in that country;
rather the population seems resigned to its fate. Instead, people
adjust their circumstances to fit the shape of life as defined by
the policies of Zanu (PF). This can be explained partly by the viciousness
with which the state has responded to dissent. But even so, that
the people have allowed the political elite to push them this far
is still unfathomable.
When I asked a cab driver, on our way
from Marlborough to Harare City, why Zimbabweans seem to have resigned
themselves to their plight instead of standing up to the regime,
his response was: "We are cowards; perhaps if the opposition
can now use this opportunity (of currency confusion) to tell people
to take to the streets, they might."
There has never been a more perfect
window opportunity than there is now for the opposition to plug
into widespread discontent and mount a challenge to Zanu (PF). Yet,
disconcertingly, the opposition has failed to seize the moment.
Could it be that there is no definable cause which the opposition
is pursuing?
It is hard to imagine what precisely
its governing programme would be if it were to come to power any
time soon. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC),
in which most people placed their hopes in 2000 and 2002, is torn
between two factions. Short of internal attrition within Zanu (PF),
the people of Zimbabwe will have to endure their plight for many
years to come.
While SA should speak out against the
misgovernance of its neighbour, and consistently push Zimbabwe’s
crisis on to the Southern African Development Community agenda,
this on its own will not help bring about a resolution of the crisis.
It will only help to internationalise it. The reality is that no
one from the outside can do for Zimbabweans what they cannot do
for themselves.
With Zanu (PF) weakened by its own
internal tensions between two factions, and the army increasingly
drawn into either of these, there is no better time for the civil
society and the opposition to show mettle and rescue Zimbabwe’s
future.
*Dr Qobo is a research associate
of the South African Institute of International Affairs and research
fellow at the department of politics, University of Stellenbosch.
He recently conducted field research in Zimbabwe.
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