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Frenzied
offensive to get leaders to mediate in Zimbabwe's festering impasse
Peter
Kagwanja
August 21, 2006
This article
was published in Cape Times (SA) on August 21, 2006
An economy gliding to a dangerous
halt has forced Zimbabwe on a frenzied diplomatic offensive to get
African leaders to mediate its festering political impasse. On the
sidelines of the July Africa Union Summit in Banjul, Gambia, President
Robert Mugabe backed former Tanzanian president Benjamin Mkapa as
mediator. But Mkapa has a tall order to succeed where South Africa
and the AU have dithered. Any diplomatic initiative will be dead
in the water if regional leaders buy into Harare's official line
that its woes are rooted in its strained relations with its former
colonial power, Britain. African leaders and the international community
must now insist on an expanded mandate, reminding Mkapa that the
trouble with Zimbabwe is squarely one of failed leadership. The
speed and ferocity with which democracy and the economy have hurtled
downwards have firmly put Zimbabwe on the global map of countries
at risk of chaos and anarchy. Mkapa's proposed mediation comes against
the backdrop of failed interventions.
South Africa's
"quiet diplomacy" response to the Zimbabwe crisis has been widely
accused of emboldening authoritarianism and weakening democratic
forces. With the spectre of a failed state on its doorsteps looming
even larger and threatening regional peace and security, Pretoria's
policy pundits are rethinking their quiet approach in favour of
a tougher one. Mkapa's initiative gives South Africa the requisite
space to take a strong stance in defence of human rights and good
governance in Zimbabwe. On its part, the SADC's backing of Harare's
official dictum that the country is paying for its seizure of white
farms has drawn fire. "The country is being made to pay for economically
liberating its own people," insists a SADC official. Zimbabwe is
a classic case of the tail wagging the dog. Regional diplomats concede
that "Mugabe is larger than the SADC". Mugabe's clout casts doubts
on Mkapa's ability to steer an independent mediation course with
the SADC.
Solidarity as
the touchstone of regional diplomacy has hampered the SADC's action,
including on Zimbabwe's Operation
Murambatsvina, which displaced 700 000 people and affected 2.4
million others, pushing the economy to the brink. Sadly, the region
is reaping the whirlwind of an economy dangerously spinning out
of control. Some 2-3 million refugees (over 2 million of them in
South Africa) are straining social services, jobs and housing, stoking
undercurrents of xenophobia and feeding into cross-border criminalities,
contrabands and cash-in-transit heists. The AU's official mindset
that "Zimbabwe is a hot potato" has hindered any form of action.
But under pressure to respond to Zimbabwe's urban evictions in June
2005, the AU Commission chairman, Alpha Konare, dispatched Tom Nyanduga
as his special envoy to assess the situation. However, Harare's
decision to deport the envoy neutered the attempt. Zimbabwe's rejection
of former Mozambican president Joachim Chisano as mediator appointed
by the AU chairman, Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo, scuttled
the possibility of inter-party dialogue.
Repeated rejection
of the resolutions of the African Commission on Human and People's
Rights critical of Zimbabwe on technicalities rather than substance,
has chipped away at the integrity of the AU. "If we continue to
throw out every human rights report that comes before us, people
out there will stop taking us seriously," warned an AU official.
Failure to clinch a deal on Zimbabwe is widening the gap between
rhetoric and reality in the AU's emerging good governance and security
architecture, guided by President Thabo Mbeki's precept of an African
Renaissance. Similarly, failure by the prompters of the New Partnership
for Africa's Development (Nepad) to turn the tide in favour of good
governance in Zimbabwe has cast a dark shroud over its credibility.
The support for Zimbabwe at pan-African level appears to be dwindling,
prompting Mugabe's recent broadside against his colleagues as cowards
for not standing up to the West over Zimbabwe. His waning continental
clout has left the SADC as the last bastion of power, explaining
its choice as the framework of the Mkapa mediation.
Mugabe's exit
and the restoration of democracy are driving international advocacy
on Zimbabwe. But the puzzle remains how to achieve them. Few expect
Mkapa to resolve this dilemma. Policy prescriptions inspired by
diverse shades of a "regime change" response to global security
and promotion of democracy have won Zimbabwe sympathy and camaraderie
from the most unexpected allies like North Korea, Iran, Cuba and
Venezuela. The failure of Zimbabwe's badly splintered opposition
to exploit the air of discontent after the March 2005 elections
and Murambatsvina to mobilise a popular uprising along the lines
of the Orange or Velvet revolutions in Eastern Europe diminished
international faith in its ability to spearhead a democratic revolution.
Targeted international sanctions by the European Union and the US
have had minimal impact on forcing the regime to restore democracy.
Chinese support for Zimbabwe has undermined Western pressure, with
its veto potentially preventing the West from bringing the issue
into the UN Security Council. But Zimbabwe's offer of minerals is
hardly sufficient to keep the oil-thirsty China in the game.
The Mkapa initiative
offers a way out of the current policy conundrum, despite the cynicism
surrounding it. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan backed Mkapa during
his discussion with Mugabe in Banjul, abandoning his own intervention
plan involving a trade-off between an aid package and Mugabe's exit
timetable. But the UN still has a role to enhance the capacity,
clout and usefulness of the Mkapa initiative by appointing an envoy
and providing financial and technical support. The Commonwealth
can also provide technical and material support, although Mugabe
pulled out of the club after its 2003 Abuja summit extended Zimbabwe's
suspension for gross human rights violations. Mkapa has access to
Downing Street, enjoys relative stature and prestige, and has the
backing of the newly elected Tanzanian president, Jakaya Kikwete,
himself an ally of Pretoria's. But, critically, his success depends
on an expanded mandate and an all-inclusive mediation that brings
civic and political actors on board. The intervention must go beyond
the parochial focus on Mugabe's strained relations with Tony Blair.
*Dr Kagwanja
is a Research Associate with the Centre for International Political
Studies. He spoke at the Goedgedacht Forum recently on the impact
of the situation in Zimbabwe on good governance in the SADC
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