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Who will take Mugabe's cake?
Basildon Peta, Sunday Argus (SA)
July 09, 2006

http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=14759

Civil disobedience in Zimbabwe will be the only way to defeat the old man of African politics, writes Basildon Peta

For a man of many despicable transgressions, Robert Mugabe can count himself extraordinarily lucky. The world continues to watch while he gets away with just about everything. In view of the hype that President Thabo Mbeki and British prime minister Tony Blair had raised about Kofi Annan's "intervention" in Zimbabwe, few had expected that Mugabe would easily bulldoze his way past the UN secretary-general at the just ended African Union (AU) summit in Gambia. Yet that's exactly what the 82-year-old Zimbabwean leader did, once again, displaying his disregard for Mbeki and other important international players who can help end the trauma in his country. Mugabe's economic genocide in a once prosperous country, his relentless suppression of his people, now reduced to paupers and scavengers, his flagrant disregard for the rule of law and legendary contempt for democracy are all disgraceful in this age of African renewal.

Yet the man seems to get away with just about anything. Leaders with the most leverage fail to rein him in. Annan is only the latest in a chain of such. Mugabe's subjects remain too scared to confront him. Disenchanted deserting soldiers would rather deploy their military expertise against innocent South Africans in violent robberies instead of pointing their guns at the main author of their miseries. Although Mugabe has shut down all possibilities of being dislodged from power via democratic electoral means, it is popular wisdom that a military coup in Zimbabwe remains a very remote possibility. While Mugabe continues to plunge his country and people into a wretched existence, it's ironic that he continues wrestling to the ground just about everyone who tries to stand up to his excesses. Getting Annan to call off his visit to Zimbabwe and to step aside in favour of former Tanzanian president Benjamin Mkapa is Mugabe's latest success. When former AU chairman Olusegun Obasanjo tried to get former Mozambican president Joacquim Chissano to mediate in Zimbabwe, Mugabe slammed the doors.

The reason: Chissano had not been vociferous enough in support of Zimbabwe despite being the best man at Mugabe's 1996 wedding to Grace. Fearing further embarrassment, both Obasanjo and Chissano quickly backed off. As usual, Mugabe got away with it. Mkapa is a staunch ally of Mugabe. He of all African leaders has spoken strongly and publicly in support of Mugabe. Mkapa was not appointed by the UN, the AU, Southern African Development Community or any other institutional body. He is Mugabe's own appointee although Mugabe says Mkapa will work within the auspices of SADC. Mkapa's mandate and terms of reference as mediator are unclear but it seems Mugabe has set the agenda. He says Mkapa's main brief is to mediate between Zimbabwe and Britain. Which perhaps explains why many Zimbabweans are highly sceptical of this mediation effort. They disagree with Mugabe and Mkapa's location of the root cause of the Zimbabwe crisis. It's within Zimbabwe and not in Britain.

"Principles of natural justice and common sense dictate that one cannot be an umpire and wicketkeeper in the same game," says University of Zimbabwe (UZ) political science professor Elphas Mukonoweshuro, also shadow foreign minister of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, in reference to Mugabe's appointment of Mkapa. Mugabe is a party to the dispute to be mediated. Yet in appointing Mkapa, he easily assumes the role of judge, jury and executioner. And he gets away with it. Annan lets him off the hook. Zimbabwe's Financial Gazette newspaper speculates that Mkapa might pull the rug from beneath Mugabe's feet by insisting on an exit plan as a pre-condition to resolving the diplomatic stand off between London and Harare. The newspaper says Mkapa is keen to succeed where many others failed. Tanzania's withdrawal this week of its ambassador to Zimbabwe, Brigadier Hashim Mbita, a staunch ally of Zanu-PF, in favour of Adadi Mohamed Rajab, seems to give credence to this hypothesis.

Speculation is that Rajab, a lawyer by profession, is being deployed to add impetus to Mkapa's mediation effort because new Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete also wants Mugabe out and is eager to help Mkapa. But Lovemore Madhuku, who heads the National Constitutional Assembly, dismisses all this as wishful thinking. Like many Zimbabweans, Madhuku thinks Mkapa's mediation effort is doomed because it is based on Mugabe's own self-serving philosophy that the problems in Zimbabwe are a result of a bilateral problem between Zimbabwe and Britain over the land issue. The problems in Zimbabwe stem from poor governance and Mugabe's determination to cling to power at all costs, says Madhuku. His sentiments are echoed by another UZ political scientist, John Makumbe, who says that if Mkapa is realistic, he should re-focus his mediation between Mugabe and his opponents in Zimbabwe because the root cause of the crisis is within Zimbabwe.

"It seems Mkapa is the best way for Mugabe to avoid anything constructive," argues Makumbe. Political activist Welshman Ncube says Mkapa's intervention is useless because the author of Zimbabwe's woes is Mugabe himself and not Britain. Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions head Wellington Chibebe says Mkapa's mediation is a tactic by Mugabe to buy more time for himself and ward off meaningful foreign intervention in Zimbabwe. Apart from bad governance, Mukonoweshuro says the crisis in Zimbabwe is also one of a weak, usurped constitution, and a privatised and militarised state that has failed. Unless Mkapa acknowledges that position, he is wasting everyone's time. Britain too insists that the Zimbabwe crisis is not a result of a bilateral dispute. Whether Mkapa succeeds in undertaking whatever mission he aspires to achieve, the fact is that Mugabe has once again had his way by trashing Annan and handpicking a friend. It is thought that Annan's involvement could easily have attracted the UN Security Council's involvement in Zimbabwe. Mugabe did not want that. So how does this old man of African politics always have his cake and eat it? Makumbe thinks Annan easily let Mugabe off the hook because the secretary-general only has a few months left before his reign ends. He thus did not want to assume a responsibility which in all likelihood is un-resolvable in the few months left before a new secretary-general is sworn in.

In Zimbabwe itself, Mugabe easily gets away with anything because of his use of brute force to suppress his people. Hungry Zimbabweans no longer have the stamina to take to the streets. Most are consumed in daily survival issues. Prominent opposition activist Roy Bennett, who fled Zimbabwe and is now seeking asylum in South Africa, thinks the people of Zimbabwe have been left to their own devices by the international community. Unlike South Africans who were partly inspired to rebel against the apartheid regime by the backing they got from the international community, Zimbabweans don't enjoy that luxury. Mugabe has also ensured a lifeline by maintaining a well-oiled propaganda machinery. He dwells on issues that appeal to black Africans still recovering from their disempowerment in the colonial era. Black leaders who have to answer to their black constituents cannot therefore tackle him effectively. It also seems the man survives on luck. Analysts agree that the only way for Zimbabweans to nudge the international community into meaningful intervention is by overcoming their fear of embarking on a sustained civil disobedience campaign to make their country ungovernable with visible repercussions for the entire region. Unless that happens, Mugabe will continue having it his way.

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