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UN proposal undermines Harare's propaganda wall
Dianna Games
June 19, 2006

http://allafrica.com/stories/200606190575.html

THE carefully constructed wall of propaganda that separates the Zimbabwean government from the rest of the world was dealt a major blow last week with the United Nations' (UN's) proposal that the country be reclassified as a least developed country (LDC).

Government officials are apparently a little shaken by the suggestion of a downgrade from a developing country, especially in the face of officials' continuing insistence that all is well in the country and that predictions of its imminent collapse are premature and, after all, merely a British and, more recently, a UN plot.

Talk of drought, sanctions and misplaced international censure over the land policy in Zimbabwe come easily out of politicians' mouths when it comes to defending the country's parlous state. Their excuses revolve around one central theme -- that all this is someone else's fault.

The UN Committee for Development Policy made the suggestion on the basis of the country's rapidly worsening social and economic indicators, including health, nutrition, poverty levels, education factors and economic vulnerability.

Zimbabwe, it said, along with Papua New Guinea, was now eligible for special treatment because of the long period of economic stagnation and low income over a number of years.

But the sticking point in such a reclassification is that the government of the country must be party to the move. And the government of this particular country has been in a state of denial about the real state of affairs there for a number of years now.

This is reflected in the thundering propaganda: that Zimbabwe is completely self-sufficient in food supplies, despite food-agency predictions of a maize shortfall of 700 000 tons this year; that inflation will be down to 50% next year, despite being officially at 1200% and rising; that unemployment is around 9%, when analysts suggest it is more like at 80% -- and so on.

Most companies are currently operating at 20%-30% of capacity and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa said recently that Zimbabwe's trade within the bloc was down by 29% in the past year.

The currency is still in freefall. The current black market rate is about Z$330000 to the US dollar against an official rate of Z$101000, while a rand is worth Z$50000 against Z$16000 officially. The foreign currency crunch is more serious than ever, particularly after the government raided what corporate funds there were to pay off the International Monetary Fund last year.

But even in the face of all this, the government has set up an equally thriving parallel information market with distinctly different sets of figures from everyone else. The UN, presumably, is in the latter camp.

Zimbabwe's ambassador to the UN, Boniface Chidyausiku, predictably rebuffed the UN proposal. "We have achieved so much in terms of our human resources and infrastructure base. We are a developing country, not an LDC," he said, adding that Zimbabwe's problems, in any case, were all caused by drought and economic sanctions against the country.

LDCs in southern Africa include Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Angola, Lesotho and Madagascar, and number among 50 LDCs globally.

One of the few advantages of being an LDC is the potential for duty- and quota-free access into developed country markets, as was agreed in Hong Kong last year -- although it does not remove the thorny issue of nontariff barriers. And there are some benefits relating to greater access to official direct assistance.

On the downside, whatever chance Zimbabwe has of getting new investment, even in the event of a significant economic and political reform process, is likely to be affected by having this status and it removes any impetus for a credit rating and decent economic benchmarks that go beyond the Millennium Development Goals, something President Robert Mugabe cherishes. It is unlikely that the matter will go forward because the government, by accepting a downgrade in status, will be admitting just how far off track its "economic turnaround" programmes have taken Zimbabwe.

That it has been raised at all in such a forum is, nevertheless, a concern. All the LDCs in Africa are doing their best to get out of their predicament. Zimbabwe, currently classified as a developing country alongside countries such as China, Brazil and SA, would be the first to go the other way.

For the Zimbabwean government, such a reclassification would be more a matter of an ego blow than anything else. But for Zimbabwe as a whole, particularly the long-suffering business sector, it would be a serious blow that it may take years to recover from.

*Games is director of Africa @ Work, a research and publishing company.

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